The CBRE Investor Survey was sent to influential senior housing investors, developers, and brokers throughout the U.S. with the objective of identifying key trends in the senior housing real estate industry in an effort to better understand the state of the rapidly evolving senior housing and care market.
The sector closed another record-setting year in 2015, with 514 institutional transactions closed and $18.7 billion in institutional sales, despite a slowdown in the fourth quarter, according to data from the National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & Care Industry (NIC). The increase in volume over 2014 was 4.5%, revealing a significant decrease in growth rate, a trend that is consistent with the overall U.S. commercial real estate market.
Among the key findings from the survey: 48% of respondents expect no change in cap rates over the next 12-month period, while 31% expect an increase in cap rates; 21% are expecting to see compression.
The change in capitalization rates in 2015 was minimal compared to prior survey results, signaling that the market cycle is close to reaching a peak. Investor interest (old and new) remains high with 58% of respondents looking to increase their exposure to the space, while participation by public REITs in 2016 is a significant, yet unknown variable.
Senior housing cap rates have averaged at a spread of roughly 518 basis points (bps) to the 10-year Treasury, with the most recent indicated spread falling above the historical average at 554 bps. This indicates room for further compression as interest rates creep upward, according to CBRE. As a point of reference, multifamily cap rates currently represent a 215 bps spread.
Total senior housing returns were reported at 16.3%, 14.8%, and 13.3% over a one-, five-, and 10-year period. These returns have outperformed multifamily returns and the NCREIF Property Index over the same periods.
The number of units under construction has increased from 22,975 at the end of 2012 to 48,903 as of 4Q 2015. With an average development period of 12 to 15 months, a significant portion of this supply will come on line in 2016. This is a major concern in the industry.
“The seniors housing landscape is evolving with the increased presence of sophisticated capital, market transparency, operational efficiencies and technological advances. This can be compared to the institutionalization that the multifamily sector experienced from the mid-1990s to early 2000s,” said Zach Bowyer, MAI, National Practice Leader for CBRE’s seniors housing specialty practice. “Increased investment activity, coupled with increased construction activity, has resulted in an increased demand for experienced operators. Growing pains are expected as the market expands, and property management continues to be a key factor in protecting the value of a seniors housing asset.”
For a PDF copy of the CBRE Senior Housing Investor Survey & Market Outlook, click here.
Related Stories
| Oct 30, 2013
11 hot BIM/VDC topics for 2013
If you like to geek out on building information modeling and virtual design and construction, you should enjoy this overview of the top BIM/VDC topics.
| Oct 28, 2013
Urban growth doesn’t have to destroy nature—it can work with it
Our collective desire to live in cities has never been stronger. According to the World Health Organization, 60% of the world’s population will live in a city by 2030. As urban populations swell, what people demand from their cities is evolving.
| Oct 25, 2013
$3B Willets Points mixed-use development in New York wins City Council approval
The $3 billion Willets Points plan in New York City that will transform 23 acres into a mixed-use development has gained approval from the City Council.
| Oct 23, 2013
Gehry, Foster join Battersea Power Station redevelopment
Norman Foster and Frank Gehry have been selected to design a retail section within the £8 billion redevelopment of Battersea Power Station in London.
| Oct 18, 2013
Meet the winners of BD+C's $5,000 Vision U40 Competition
Fifteen teams competed last week in the first annual Vision U40 Competition at BD+C's Under 40 Leadership Summit in San Francisco. Here are the five winning teams, including the $3,000 grand prize honorees.
| Oct 18, 2013
Researchers discover tension-fusing properties of metal
When a group of MIT researchers recently discovered that stress can cause metal alloy to fuse rather than break apart, they assumed it must be a mistake. It wasn't. The surprising finding could lead to self-healing materials that repair early damage before it has a chance to spread.
| Oct 7, 2013
10 award-winning metal building projects
The FDNY Fireboat Firehouse in New York and the Cirrus Logic Building in Austin, Texas, are among nine projects named winners of the 2013 Chairman’s Award by the Metal Construction Association for outstanding design and construction.
| Oct 7, 2013
Reimagining the metal shipping container
With origins tracing back to the mid-1950s, the modern metal shipping container continues to serve as a secure, practical vessel for transporting valuable materials. However, these reusable steel boxes have recently garnered considerable attention from architects and constructors as attractive building materials.
| Oct 4, 2013
Sydney to get world's tallest 'living' façade
The One Central Park Tower development consists of two, 380-foot-tall towers covered in a series of living walls and vertical gardens that will extend the full height of the buildings.
| Oct 4, 2013
Mack Urban, AECOM acquire six acres for development in LA's South Park district
Mack Urban and AECOM Capital, the investment fund of AECOM Technology Corporation (NYSE: ACM), have acquired six acres of land in downtown Los Angeles’ South Park district located in the central business district (CBD).