The CBRE Investor Survey was sent to influential senior housing investors, developers, and brokers throughout the U.S. with the objective of identifying key trends in the senior housing real estate industry in an effort to better understand the state of the rapidly evolving senior housing and care market.
The sector closed another record-setting year in 2015, with 514 institutional transactions closed and $18.7 billion in institutional sales, despite a slowdown in the fourth quarter, according to data from the National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing & Care Industry (NIC). The increase in volume over 2014 was 4.5%, revealing a significant decrease in growth rate, a trend that is consistent with the overall U.S. commercial real estate market.
Among the key findings from the survey: 48% of respondents expect no change in cap rates over the next 12-month period, while 31% expect an increase in cap rates; 21% are expecting to see compression.
The change in capitalization rates in 2015 was minimal compared to prior survey results, signaling that the market cycle is close to reaching a peak. Investor interest (old and new) remains high with 58% of respondents looking to increase their exposure to the space, while participation by public REITs in 2016 is a significant, yet unknown variable.
Senior housing cap rates have averaged at a spread of roughly 518 basis points (bps) to the 10-year Treasury, with the most recent indicated spread falling above the historical average at 554 bps. This indicates room for further compression as interest rates creep upward, according to CBRE. As a point of reference, multifamily cap rates currently represent a 215 bps spread.
Total senior housing returns were reported at 16.3%, 14.8%, and 13.3% over a one-, five-, and 10-year period. These returns have outperformed multifamily returns and the NCREIF Property Index over the same periods.
The number of units under construction has increased from 22,975 at the end of 2012 to 48,903 as of 4Q 2015. With an average development period of 12 to 15 months, a significant portion of this supply will come on line in 2016. This is a major concern in the industry.
“The seniors housing landscape is evolving with the increased presence of sophisticated capital, market transparency, operational efficiencies and technological advances. This can be compared to the institutionalization that the multifamily sector experienced from the mid-1990s to early 2000s,” said Zach Bowyer, MAI, National Practice Leader for CBRE’s seniors housing specialty practice. “Increased investment activity, coupled with increased construction activity, has resulted in an increased demand for experienced operators. Growing pains are expected as the market expands, and property management continues to be a key factor in protecting the value of a seniors housing asset.”
For a PDF copy of the CBRE Senior Housing Investor Survey & Market Outlook, click here.
Related Stories
High-rise Construction | May 6, 2015
Two new designs submitted for New York City Riverside Center
Both designs reference the cantilevers and other elements featured in architect Christian de Portzamparc’s original masterplan for the complex, which has now been scrapped.
High-rise Construction | May 6, 2015
Parks in the sky? Subterranean bike paths? Meet the livable city, designed in 3D
Today’s great cities must be resilient—and open—to many things, including the influx of humanity, writes Gensler co-CEO Andy Cohen.
Mixed-Use | May 5, 2015
Miami ‘innovation district’ will have 6.5 million sf of dense, walkable space
Designing a neighborhood from the ground-up, developers aim to create a dense, walkable district that fulfills what is lacking from Miami’s current auto-dependent layout.
Codes and Standards | May 1, 2015
Colorado House kills construction defects bill
The legislation would have made it harder for condo owners to sue builders.
Multifamily Housing | May 1, 2015
Trade groups extend campaign to promote apartment living
The groups claim that there are more than 37 million Americans—12% of the population—living in just under 20 million apartment units nationwide. Apartments and their residents contribute $1.3 trillion annually to the economy.
Multifamily Housing | Apr 28, 2015
Masdar City: Construction on sustainable residential complex begins
The planned city’s new residences will help support Abu Dhabi’s rapid population growth.
Multifamily Housing | Apr 28, 2015
Mace and Make work on London's 40-story residential tower
The tower is one of six residential high-rises planned near London’s City Road, which is undergoing a mini construction boom.
Multifamily Housing | Apr 27, 2015
The empire strikes back: George Lucas proposes new affordable housing complex he'll finance alone
The latest plans are seen by some as payback for community opposition to his past real estate ventures.
Wood | Apr 26, 2015
Building wood towers: How high is up for timber structures?
The recent push for larger and taller wood structures may seem like an architectural fad. But Building Teams around the world are starting to use more large-scale structural wood systems.
Multifamily Housing | Apr 22, 2015
Condo developers covet churches for conversions
Former churches, many of which are sitting on prime urban real estate, are being converted into libraries, restaurants, and with greater frequency condominiums.
