Like digging a ditch with a spoon, retail demand driven by population growth has eaten away at the supply of available store space in the markets that have been slowest to recover from the downturn. It has been a long row to hoe, but vacancy rates are reaching a point that will give at least some landlords in every market the clout to demand slightly higher rents.
“We’re not quite there yet, but by the end of this year virtually all markets should see rent growth,” said Greg Maloney, President and Chief Executive Officer, Jones Lang LaSalle Retail Group. “Quite a few markets are already posting year-over-year growth, including Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Dallas, New York, Tampa, San Francisco, Hawaii, Los Angeles and Boston.”
Most of those rent-growth metros are enjoying robust local economies, many driven by energy or high tech employment. Houston will soon join the list, although it has yet to achieve year-over-year rent growth.
Maloney added, “It’s important to note that many of the markets that are experiencing robust growth are also the ones that had the steepest decline.”
National averages show rents still on the decline, falling a scant 0.2 percent from a year ago, according to Jones Lang LaSalle’s United States Spring Retail Forecast, published today. Yet rents overall were up 0.3 percent from the previous quarter, providing an early glimmer of a more widespread turnaround.
Outlets are in
Increased consumer interest in value retail has already fueled sales and growing store counts for many retailers that specialize in do-it-yourself home or automotive repairs and low-cost consumer goods. The same fervor for value has also pushed outlet centers to the forefront of retail real estate performance, researchers found.
“Outlet center performance has been outstanding in recent years, with developers racing to bring more centers to market to meet growing demand,” said Kristin Mueller, Chief Operating Officer, Jones Lang LaSalle.
“The quality of retailers tenanting outlets is becoming more sophisticated and upscale as well,” Mueller said. “Success has enabled outlet landlords to be more picky, and they have more retailers to choose from because even some luxury brands and department stores are dipping their feet into the outlet concept.”
Other highlights from the Spring Retail Forecast:
- The slow improvement in retail real estate fundamentals reflects the glacial progress of the economic recovery; annualized gross domestic product growth averaged just 1.8 percent over the past four quarters, while the jobless rate stands at a disheartening 7.6 percent.
- Vacancy inched down 10 basis points to 6.7 percent in the first quarter, down 80 basis points from the cyclical peak in the first half of 2010 but well above its 10-year average.
- Strip and neighborhood shopping centers have the highest vacancy rate among property types at 10.4 percent, but are finally starting to see a turnaround, with vacancies dropping some 11 percent year-over-year for the first time since 2009. Power centers posted the largest vacancy decline, falling 60 basis points year-over-year to 5.9 percent.
JLL Retail offers comprehensive retail services to meet the expanding needs of investors and occupiers of real estate. As the leading retail service provider, Jones Lang LaSalle manages a portfolio of 94 million square feet of retail centers within the United States and delivers service offerings to 80+ retailers – locally and nationally. For more information on JLL Retail, visit www.jllretail.com.
About Jones Lang LaSalle
Jones Lang LaSalle (NYSE:JLL) is a professional services and investment management firm offering specialized real estate services to clients seeking increased value by owning, occupying and investing in real estate. With annual revenue of $3.9 billion, Jones Lang LaSalle operates in 70 countries from more than 1,000 locations worldwide. On behalf of its clients, the firm provides management and real estate outsourcing services to a property portfolio of 2.6 billion square feet. Its investment management business, LaSalle Investment Management, has $47.0 billion of real estate assets under management. For further information, visit www.jll.com.
Related Stories
| May 1, 2012
Gilbane to build $100 million cranberries manufacturing facility
Gilbane to provide design build services for a new Lean manufacturing facility for Ocean Spray Cranberries Inc., beverage products.
| May 1, 2012
Construction is underway on MLK ambulatory care center in L.A.
Featuring a variety of sustainable features, the new facility is designed to achieve LEED Gold Certification.
| Apr 30, 2012
Virginia Commonwealth unveils design for Arts Institution
Institute for Contemporary Art will serve as a catalyst for exhibitions, programs, research and collaboration.
| Apr 30, 2012
Summit Design + Build completes build-out for Office Concepts
The project is seeking LEED ID Silver certification from the U.S. Green Building Council.
| Apr 30, 2012
HSA Commercial selected as consultant for Orland Park’s Main Street Triangle project
HSA will be responsible for designing an overall mixed-use merchandise plan, attracting a unique retail tenant mix and completing leases with prospective tenants.
| Apr 30, 2012
Gilbane to manage retrofit of the Fraunhofer CSE R&B structure
Building is a first-of-its-kind research and demonstration building for sustainable technologies in Boston's Innovation District.
| Apr 30, 2012
KBE Building completes renovation at the ConnCAT
The $1.2 million project consisted of a 16,000-sf interior renovation.
| Apr 27, 2012
GreenExpo365.com to offer webinars on EPA’s WaterSense Program
Architects and builders interested in developing water-efficient buildings invited to attend free sessions featuring experts discussing water-efficient building practices.
| Apr 27, 2012
APA launches wood design web portal for building and design pros
Design professionals who are members of APA’s Professional Associates are automatically enrolled in the APA Designers Circle program.
