Like digging a ditch with a spoon, retail demand driven by population growth has eaten away at the supply of available store space in the markets that have been slowest to recover from the downturn. It has been a long row to hoe, but vacancy rates are reaching a point that will give at least some landlords in every market the clout to demand slightly higher rents.
“We’re not quite there yet, but by the end of this year virtually all markets should see rent growth,” said Greg Maloney, President and Chief Executive Officer, Jones Lang LaSalle Retail Group. “Quite a few markets are already posting year-over-year growth, including Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Dallas, New York, Tampa, San Francisco, Hawaii, Los Angeles and Boston.”
Most of those rent-growth metros are enjoying robust local economies, many driven by energy or high tech employment. Houston will soon join the list, although it has yet to achieve year-over-year rent growth.
Maloney added, “It’s important to note that many of the markets that are experiencing robust growth are also the ones that had the steepest decline.”
National averages show rents still on the decline, falling a scant 0.2 percent from a year ago, according to Jones Lang LaSalle’s United States Spring Retail Forecast, published today. Yet rents overall were up 0.3 percent from the previous quarter, providing an early glimmer of a more widespread turnaround.
Outlets are in
Increased consumer interest in value retail has already fueled sales and growing store counts for many retailers that specialize in do-it-yourself home or automotive repairs and low-cost consumer goods. The same fervor for value has also pushed outlet centers to the forefront of retail real estate performance, researchers found.
“Outlet center performance has been outstanding in recent years, with developers racing to bring more centers to market to meet growing demand,” said Kristin Mueller, Chief Operating Officer, Jones Lang LaSalle.
“The quality of retailers tenanting outlets is becoming more sophisticated and upscale as well,” Mueller said. “Success has enabled outlet landlords to be more picky, and they have more retailers to choose from because even some luxury brands and department stores are dipping their feet into the outlet concept.”
Other highlights from the Spring Retail Forecast:
- The slow improvement in retail real estate fundamentals reflects the glacial progress of the economic recovery; annualized gross domestic product growth averaged just 1.8 percent over the past four quarters, while the jobless rate stands at a disheartening 7.6 percent.
- Vacancy inched down 10 basis points to 6.7 percent in the first quarter, down 80 basis points from the cyclical peak in the first half of 2010 but well above its 10-year average.
- Strip and neighborhood shopping centers have the highest vacancy rate among property types at 10.4 percent, but are finally starting to see a turnaround, with vacancies dropping some 11 percent year-over-year for the first time since 2009. Power centers posted the largest vacancy decline, falling 60 basis points year-over-year to 5.9 percent.
JLL Retail offers comprehensive retail services to meet the expanding needs of investors and occupiers of real estate. As the leading retail service provider, Jones Lang LaSalle manages a portfolio of 94 million square feet of retail centers within the United States and delivers service offerings to 80+ retailers – locally and nationally. For more information on JLL Retail, visit www.jllretail.com.
About Jones Lang LaSalle
Jones Lang LaSalle (NYSE:JLL) is a professional services and investment management firm offering specialized real estate services to clients seeking increased value by owning, occupying and investing in real estate. With annual revenue of $3.9 billion, Jones Lang LaSalle operates in 70 countries from more than 1,000 locations worldwide. On behalf of its clients, the firm provides management and real estate outsourcing services to a property portfolio of 2.6 billion square feet. Its investment management business, LaSalle Investment Management, has $47.0 billion of real estate assets under management. For further information, visit www.jll.com.
Related Stories
| Sep 26, 2012
EDITORIAL OPPORTUNITY – BD+C Greenbuild 2012 Issue
Your firm is invited to contribute to this special issue, which will be distributed at Greenbuild San Francisco, Nov. 14-16, 2012.
| Sep 24, 2012
Reed Construction completes Lafarge headquarters in Chicago
Reed Construction was contracted to complete the full third floor build-out which included the construction of new open area work space, private offices, four conference rooms with videoconferencing capabilities and an executive conference boardroom.
| Sep 24, 2012
Chicago Lakeside shortlisted for the Sustainia Award
The “Lakeside Idea” is about bridging a brownfield industrial past to a green lifestyle future, from steel mill to innovation mill.
| Sep 24, 2012
$3.8-million athletic field and track opens in Glen Head, N.Y.
The complex also includes a new, one-story, multi-purpose building that serves as the main entry port to the athletic facilities.
| Sep 21, 2012
AAMA and WDMA release updated review and forecast that predicts industry trends
Significant volume is expected to return to the entry and interior door market as new construction demand is expected to grow at double-digit rates, outpacing remodeling and replacement activity as the housing market recovers.
| Sep 20, 2012
Mid-box retail study shows lack of available sites in Chicago
Existing supply is tight everywhere and almost non-existent in the most attractive zones.
| Sep 20, 2012
Forrester begins construction of freestanding cancer center in Montgomery County, Md.
The new 51,000-square-foot building will include two linear accelerator vaults for radiation equipment.
| Sep 19, 2012
Modular, LEED-Gold Certified Dormitory Accommodates Appalachian State University Growth
By using modular construction, the university was able to open a dorm a full year earlier than a similar dorm built at the same time with traditional construction.
| Sep 19, 2012
ABI back into positive territory
South continues to lead regions in demand for design services.
| Sep 19, 2012
HGA Architects & Engineers moves offices in San Francisco
HGA’s San Francisco office has grown by nearly 25% in the past two years, adding shared expertise to the 120-person California practice, which includes the Sacramento and Los Angeles offices.
