Like digging a ditch with a spoon, retail demand driven by population growth has eaten away at the supply of available store space in the markets that have been slowest to recover from the downturn. It has been a long row to hoe, but vacancy rates are reaching a point that will give at least some landlords in every market the clout to demand slightly higher rents.
“We’re not quite there yet, but by the end of this year virtually all markets should see rent growth,” said Greg Maloney, President and Chief Executive Officer, Jones Lang LaSalle Retail Group. “Quite a few markets are already posting year-over-year growth, including Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Dallas, New York, Tampa, San Francisco, Hawaii, Los Angeles and Boston.”
Most of those rent-growth metros are enjoying robust local economies, many driven by energy or high tech employment. Houston will soon join the list, although it has yet to achieve year-over-year rent growth.
Maloney added, “It’s important to note that many of the markets that are experiencing robust growth are also the ones that had the steepest decline.”
National averages show rents still on the decline, falling a scant 0.2 percent from a year ago, according to Jones Lang LaSalle’s United States Spring Retail Forecast, published today. Yet rents overall were up 0.3 percent from the previous quarter, providing an early glimmer of a more widespread turnaround.
Outlets are in
Increased consumer interest in value retail has already fueled sales and growing store counts for many retailers that specialize in do-it-yourself home or automotive repairs and low-cost consumer goods. The same fervor for value has also pushed outlet centers to the forefront of retail real estate performance, researchers found.
“Outlet center performance has been outstanding in recent years, with developers racing to bring more centers to market to meet growing demand,” said Kristin Mueller, Chief Operating Officer, Jones Lang LaSalle.
“The quality of retailers tenanting outlets is becoming more sophisticated and upscale as well,” Mueller said. “Success has enabled outlet landlords to be more picky, and they have more retailers to choose from because even some luxury brands and department stores are dipping their feet into the outlet concept.”
Other highlights from the Spring Retail Forecast:
- The slow improvement in retail real estate fundamentals reflects the glacial progress of the economic recovery; annualized gross domestic product growth averaged just 1.8 percent over the past four quarters, while the jobless rate stands at a disheartening 7.6 percent.
- Vacancy inched down 10 basis points to 6.7 percent in the first quarter, down 80 basis points from the cyclical peak in the first half of 2010 but well above its 10-year average.
- Strip and neighborhood shopping centers have the highest vacancy rate among property types at 10.4 percent, but are finally starting to see a turnaround, with vacancies dropping some 11 percent year-over-year for the first time since 2009. Power centers posted the largest vacancy decline, falling 60 basis points year-over-year to 5.9 percent.
JLL Retail offers comprehensive retail services to meet the expanding needs of investors and occupiers of real estate. As the leading retail service provider, Jones Lang LaSalle manages a portfolio of 94 million square feet of retail centers within the United States and delivers service offerings to 80+ retailers – locally and nationally. For more information on JLL Retail, visit www.jllretail.com.
About Jones Lang LaSalle
Jones Lang LaSalle (NYSE:JLL) is a professional services and investment management firm offering specialized real estate services to clients seeking increased value by owning, occupying and investing in real estate. With annual revenue of $3.9 billion, Jones Lang LaSalle operates in 70 countries from more than 1,000 locations worldwide. On behalf of its clients, the firm provides management and real estate outsourcing services to a property portfolio of 2.6 billion square feet. Its investment management business, LaSalle Investment Management, has $47.0 billion of real estate assets under management. For further information, visit www.jll.com.
Related Stories
| Aug 27, 2013
Industrial Sector Report [2013 Giants 300 Report]
Building Design+Construction's rankings of the nation's largest industrial sector design and construction firms, as reported in the 2013 Giants 300 Report.
| Aug 26, 2013
What you missed last week: Architecture billings up again; record year for hotel renovations; nation's most expensive real estate markets
BD+C's roundup of the top construction market news for the week of August 18 includes the latest architecture billings index from AIA and a BOMA study on the nation's most and least expensive commercial real estate markets.
| Aug 26, 2013
Chicago Bears kick off season at renovated Halas Hall
An upgraded locker room, expanded weight room, and updated dining room with an outdoor patio greeted the Chicago Bears when they arrived at Halas Hall for practice this month. The improvements are part of a major expansion and renovation of the Bears’ headquarters in Lake Forest, Ill., completed by Mortenson Construction in less than seven months.
| Aug 22, 2013
Energy-efficient glazing technology [AIA Course]
This course discuses the latest technological advances in glazing, which make possible ever more efficient enclosures with ever greater glazed area.
| Aug 22, 2013
Warehouse remake: Conversion project turns derelict freight terminal into modern office space [slideshow]
The goal of the Freight development is to attract businesses to an abandoned industrial zone north of downtown Denver.
| Aug 21, 2013
AIA: Architecture billings on the rise in July
The Architecture Billings Index for July was 52.7, up from a mark of 51.6 in June. This score reflects an increase in demand for design services (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings).
| Aug 20, 2013
40 Under 40 retrospective: ‘U40s’ take on continuing ed, snake’s blood
Every month we’ll be touching base with past 40 Under 40 honorees to see what’s been happening in their professional and personal lives since winning the award. This month: An accomplished author of test-prep books and an architect who headed to China when the American economy turned sour.
| Aug 20, 2013
Top Data Center Architecture Firms [2013 Giants 300 Report]
Corgan, Gensler, HDR head Building Design+Construction's 2013 ranking of the largest data center architecture and architecture/engineering firms in the U.S.
| Aug 20, 2013
First look: $550 million Billie Jean King National Tennis Center renovation
The United States Tennis Association has announced its plans for a sweeping transformation of the USTABillie Jean King National Tennis Center that will include the construction of two new stadiums, as well as a retractable roof over Arthur Ashe Stadium. The transformation will be implemented in three phases to begin at the conclusion of the 2013 US Open, with the goal of overall completion by the 2018 US Open.
| Aug 15, 2013
Design-build project delivery holds steady at nearly 40% of nonresidential construction: DBIA study
The Design-Build Institute of America (DBIA), the only organization that defines, teaches and promotes best practices in design-build, has released research indicating that design-build project delivery represents nearly 40 percent of total market share in the United States, based on dollar value at the end of 2012.