Like digging a ditch with a spoon, retail demand driven by population growth has eaten away at the supply of available store space in the markets that have been slowest to recover from the downturn. It has been a long row to hoe, but vacancy rates are reaching a point that will give at least some landlords in every market the clout to demand slightly higher rents.
“We’re not quite there yet, but by the end of this year virtually all markets should see rent growth,” said Greg Maloney, President and Chief Executive Officer, Jones Lang LaSalle Retail Group. “Quite a few markets are already posting year-over-year growth, including Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Dallas, New York, Tampa, San Francisco, Hawaii, Los Angeles and Boston.”
Most of those rent-growth metros are enjoying robust local economies, many driven by energy or high tech employment. Houston will soon join the list, although it has yet to achieve year-over-year rent growth.
Maloney added, “It’s important to note that many of the markets that are experiencing robust growth are also the ones that had the steepest decline.”
National averages show rents still on the decline, falling a scant 0.2 percent from a year ago, according to Jones Lang LaSalle’s United States Spring Retail Forecast, published today. Yet rents overall were up 0.3 percent from the previous quarter, providing an early glimmer of a more widespread turnaround.
Outlets are in
Increased consumer interest in value retail has already fueled sales and growing store counts for many retailers that specialize in do-it-yourself home or automotive repairs and low-cost consumer goods. The same fervor for value has also pushed outlet centers to the forefront of retail real estate performance, researchers found.
“Outlet center performance has been outstanding in recent years, with developers racing to bring more centers to market to meet growing demand,” said Kristin Mueller, Chief Operating Officer, Jones Lang LaSalle.
“The quality of retailers tenanting outlets is becoming more sophisticated and upscale as well,” Mueller said. “Success has enabled outlet landlords to be more picky, and they have more retailers to choose from because even some luxury brands and department stores are dipping their feet into the outlet concept.”
Other highlights from the Spring Retail Forecast:
- The slow improvement in retail real estate fundamentals reflects the glacial progress of the economic recovery; annualized gross domestic product growth averaged just 1.8 percent over the past four quarters, while the jobless rate stands at a disheartening 7.6 percent.
- Vacancy inched down 10 basis points to 6.7 percent in the first quarter, down 80 basis points from the cyclical peak in the first half of 2010 but well above its 10-year average.
- Strip and neighborhood shopping centers have the highest vacancy rate among property types at 10.4 percent, but are finally starting to see a turnaround, with vacancies dropping some 11 percent year-over-year for the first time since 2009. Power centers posted the largest vacancy decline, falling 60 basis points year-over-year to 5.9 percent.
JLL Retail offers comprehensive retail services to meet the expanding needs of investors and occupiers of real estate. As the leading retail service provider, Jones Lang LaSalle manages a portfolio of 94 million square feet of retail centers within the United States and delivers service offerings to 80+ retailers – locally and nationally. For more information on JLL Retail, visit www.jllretail.com.
About Jones Lang LaSalle
Jones Lang LaSalle (NYSE:JLL) is a professional services and investment management firm offering specialized real estate services to clients seeking increased value by owning, occupying and investing in real estate. With annual revenue of $3.9 billion, Jones Lang LaSalle operates in 70 countries from more than 1,000 locations worldwide. On behalf of its clients, the firm provides management and real estate outsourcing services to a property portfolio of 2.6 billion square feet. Its investment management business, LaSalle Investment Management, has $47.0 billion of real estate assets under management. For further information, visit www.jll.com.
Related Stories
Energy-Efficient Design | Apr 19, 2022
A prefab second skin can make old apartments net zero
A German startup is offering a new way for old buildings to potentially reach net-zero status: adding a prefabricated second skin.
Concrete Technology | Apr 19, 2022
SGH’s Applied Science & Research Center achieves ISO 17025 accreditation for concrete testing procedures
Simpson Gumpertz & Heger’s (SGH) Applied Science & Research Center recently received ISO/IEC17025 accreditation from the American Association for Laboratory Accreditation (A2LA) for several concrete testing methods.
Senior Living Design | Apr 19, 2022
Affordable housing for L.A. veterans and low-income seniors built on former parking lot site
The Howard and Irene Levine Senior Community, designed by KFA Architecture for Mercy Housing of California, provides badly needed housing for Los Angeles veterans and low-income seniors
Sponsored | BD+C University Course | Apr 19, 2022
Multi-story building systems and selection criteria
This course outlines the attributes, functions, benefits, limits, and acoustic qualities of composite deck slabs. It reviews the three primary types of composite systems that represent the full range of long-span composite floor systems and examines the criteria for their selection, design, and engineering.
Building Team | Apr 18, 2022
Shive-Hattery Acquires WSM Architects
Shive-Hattery announces that it has acquired WSM Architects, Inc., a 13-person architecture firm in Tucson, Arizona.
University Buildings | Apr 18, 2022
SmithGroup to design new Univ. of Colorado Denver engineering, design, computing building
The University of Colorado Denver selected SmithGroup to design a new engineering, design, and computing building that will serve as anchor of new downtown innovation district.
Building Team | Apr 15, 2022
Frank Gehry to design his largest building yet for his hometown of Toronto
Famed architect Frank Gehry will design his largest building to date for his hometown of Toronto, Canada.
Healthcare Facilities | Apr 14, 2022
Healthcare construction veteran creates next-level IPD process for hospital projects
Can integrated project delivery work without incentives for building team members? Denton Wilson thinks so.
Industrial Facilities | Apr 14, 2022
JLL's take on the race for industrial space
In the previous decade, the inventory of industrial space couldn’t keep up with demand that was driven by the dual surges of the coronavirus and online shopping. Vacancies declined and rents rose. JLL has just published a research report on this sector called “The Race for Industrial Space.” Mehtab Randhawa, JLL’s Americas Head of Industrial Research, shares the highlights of a new report on the industrial sector's growth.
High-rise Construction | Apr 14, 2022
Seattle’s high-rise convention center nears completion
The new Washington State Convention Center Summit Building—billed as the first high-rise convention center in North America—is on track to complete most of its construction later this year.