Construction spending is projected to grow through 2019, according to a new consensus forecast from The American Institute of Architects (AIA).
Spending on nonresidential buildings nationally increased only modestly last year, barely outpacing inflation in building costs. Halfway through the seventh year of continuous growth for the cyclical construction industry, 2018 might have looked to be the year that the industry would enter another recession. However, when polled at the beginning of this year, the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel—consisting of leading economic forecasters— instead saw an acceleration in activity, projecting 4.0 percent growth in 2018 and a nearly equal 3.9 percent in 2019.
See Also: U.S. multifamily rents reach new heights in July
“At the halfway point of the year, this panel is even more optimistic,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “Their forecasts have been marked up to 4.7 percent growth in spending for this year and an additional 4.0 percent in 2019. If these projections materialize, by the end of next year the industry will have seen nine years of consecutive growth, and total spending on nonresidential buildings will be 5 percent greater—ignoring inflationary adjustments—than the last market peak of 2008.”
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast panel is comprised of Dodge Data & Analytics, Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, IHS Economics, Moody’s Economy.com, ConstructConnect, Associated Builders & Contractors, and FMI. The forecast has been conducted for 18 years.
Learn more about the Consensus Construction Forecast online.
Related Stories
Market Data | Oct 14, 2021
Prices for construction materials continue to outstrip bid prices over 12 months
Construction officials renew push for immediate removal of tariffs on key construction materials.
Market Data | Oct 11, 2021
No decline in construction costs in sight
Construction cost gains are occurring at a time when nonresidential construction spending was down by 9.5 percent for the 12 months through July 2021.
Market Data | Oct 11, 2021
Nonresidential construction sector posts first job gain since March
Has yet to hit pre-pandemic levels amid supply chain disruptions and delays.
Market Data | Oct 4, 2021
Construction spending stalls between July and August
A decrease in nonresidential projects negates ongoing growth in residential work.
Market Data | Oct 1, 2021
Nonresidential construction spending dips in August
Spending declined on a monthly basis in 10 of the 16 nonresidential subcategories.
Market Data | Sep 29, 2021
One-third of metro areas lost construction jobs between August 2020 and 2021
Lawrence-Methuen Town-Salem, Mass. and San Diego-Carlsbad, Calif. top lists of metros with year-over-year employment increases.
Market Data | Sep 28, 2021
Design-Build projects should continue to take bigger shares of construction spending pie over next five years
FMI’s new study finds collaboration and creativity are major reasons why owners and AEC firms prefer this delivery method.
Market Data | Sep 22, 2021
Architecture billings continue to increase
The ABI score for August was 55.6, up from July’s score of 54.6.
Market Data | Sep 20, 2021
August construction employment lags pre-pandemic peak in 39 states
The coronavirus delta variant and supply problems hold back recovery.
Market Data | Sep 15, 2021
ABC’s Construction Backlog Indicator plummets in August; Contractor Confidence down
ABC’s Construction Confidence Index readings for sales, profit margins and staffing levels all fell modestly in August.
