Projections reveal nonresidential construction spending to grow

Construction spending is projected to grow through 2019, according to a new consensus forecast from The American Institute of Architects (AIA).

Spending on nonresidential buildings nationally increased only modestly last year, barely outpacing inflation in building costs. Halfway through the seventh year of continuous growth for the cyclical construction industry, 2018 might have looked to be the year that the industry would enter another recession. However, when polled at the beginning of this year, the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel—consisting of leading economic forecasters— instead saw an acceleration in activity, projecting 4.0 percent growth in 2018 and a nearly equal 3.9 percent in 2019.

“At the halfway point of the year, this panel is even more optimistic,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “Their forecasts have been marked up to 4.7 percent growth in spending for this year and an additional 4.0 percent in 2019. If these projections materialize, by the end of next year the industry will have seen nine years of consecutive growth, and total spending on nonresidential buildings will be 5 percent greater—ignoring inflationary adjustments—than the last market peak of 2008.”

The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast panel is comprised of Dodge Data & Analytics, Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, IHS Economics, Moody’s Economy.com, ConstructConnect, Associated Builders & Contractors, and FMI. The forecast has been conducted for 18 years.

Learn more about the Consensus Construction Forecast online.

See how your architecture, engineering, or construction firm stacks up against the nation's AEC Giants. For more than 45 years, the editors of Building Design+Construction have surveyed the largest AEC firms in the U.S./Canada to create the annual Giants 400 report. This year, a record 519 firms participated in the Giants 400 report. The final report includes 137 rankings across 25 building sectors and specialty categories.

Multifamily Housing | Feb 7, 2023

Multifamily housing rents flat in January, developers remain optimistic

Multifamily rents were flat in January 2023 as a strong jobs report indicated that fears of a significant economic recession may be overblown. U.S. asking rents averaged $1,701, unchanged from the prior month, according to the latest Yardi Matrix National Multifamily Report.

Market Data | Feb 6, 2023

Nonresidential construction spending dips 0.5% in December 2022

National nonresidential construction spending decreased by 0.5% in December, according to an Associated Builders and Contractors analysis of data published today by the U.S. Census Bureau. On a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, nonresidential spending totaled $943.5 billion for the month.

Architects | Jan 23, 2023

PSMJ report: The fed’s wrecking ball is hitting the private construction sector

Inflation may be starting to show some signs of cooling, but the Fed isn’t backing down anytime soon and the impact is becoming more noticeable in the architecture, engineering, and construction (A/E/C) space. The overall A/E/C outlook continues a downward trend and this is driven largely by the freefall happening in key private-sector markets.

Hotel Facilities | Jan 23, 2023

U.S. hotel construction pipeline up 14% to close out 2022

At the end of 2022’s fourth quarter, the U.S. construction pipeline was up 14% by projects and 12% by rooms year-over-year, according to Lodging Econometrics.

Products and Materials | Jan 18, 2023

Is inflation easing? Construction input prices drop 2.7% in December 2022

Softwood lumber and steel mill products saw the biggest decline among building construction materials, according to the latest U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Producer Price Index.

Market Data | Jan 10, 2023

Construction backlogs at highest level since Q2 2019, says ABC

Associated Builders and Contractors reports today that its Construction Backlog Indicator remained unchanged at 9.2 months in December 2022, according to an ABC member survey conducted Dec. 20, 2022, to Jan. 5, 2023. The reading is one month higher than in December 2021.

Market Data | Jan 6, 2023

Nonresidential construction spending rises in November 2022

Spending on nonresidential construction work in the U.S. was up 0.9% in November versus the previous month, and 11.8% versus the previous year, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

Industry Research | Dec 28, 2022

Following a strong year, design and construction firms view 2023 cautiously

The economy and inflation are the biggest concerns for U.S. architecture, construction, and engineering firms in 2023, according to a recent survey of AEC professionals by the editors of Building Design+Construction.