McKinsey & Company, the international corporate consulting firm, has issued a new research study, “Modular construction: From projects to products.” Written by an international team, it discusses a wide range of building sectors, but its main focus is multifamily.
The authors claim that modular construction could claim $45 billion of the total $277 billion new-build multifamily market by 2030 in the U.S. and Europe at moderate penetration and save $6 billion a year in costs.
Assuming the U.S. represents at least half of the market (probably more like 60-70%), those would seem to be very attractive numbers for apartment, student housing, and senior living construction, where modular construction works best.
SEE ALSO: Almost everything you wanted to know about industrial construction
But I have some problems with the McKinsey findings. To start with, I wonder where they got the $277 billion figure for multifamily construction in the U.S. and Europe by 2030. That looks really high to me. It would be a godsend if the U.S. could be producing half of that, say, $130 billion or more of apartments and other forms of multifamily—we sure could use them. But with the U.S. producing at best $60-70 billion in multifamily construction, it’s hard to see a doubling of that rate of construction in the next decade.
The McKinsey numbers may also be weighted toward the rest of the world, less so toward the U.S. One of the charts I found most intriguing (page 22 of the report, if you’re keeping score) had to do with the current offsite share of housing by country, i.e., how much “factory-produced” housing construction is going on in various countries.
The global leader turns out to be the trifecta of Finland-Norway-Sweden, where 45% of housing construction is produced off site, followed by Japan (15%), Germany (10%), China (6%), and Australia and the U.K. (each 5%). The U.S.? Three percent.
It’s not all doom and gloom for the U.S. Modular, prefab, or “industrial construction” is starting to catch on, particularly in student housing and the low- to mid-rise apartment sector. One reason for this is the pervasive adoption of Revit and other 3D modeling tools, which make it relatively easy to transfer data from the designer’s desktop directly to the offsite factory.
Another reason why we’ll see more industrial construction in multifamily is the dire shortage of skilled labor. As the McKinsey experts note, shifting to offsite manufacture is cheaper—and “it may even attract new people into the workforce who do not wish to move from one construction site to another following projects.” Or who’d rather be in a nice cozy factory than freezing their butts on a job site in the middle of a Minnesota winter.
But don’t expect huge savings in initial costs. The most important benefit of offsite construction, when done right, is reliability—the assurance that a wall system or an entire room module can and will be delivered on time and to high level of specification.
Related Stories
Mixed-Use | Apr 23, 2024
A sports entertainment district is approved for downtown Orlando
This $500 million mixed-use development will take up nearly nine blocks.
Resiliency | Apr 22, 2024
Controversy erupts in Florida over how homes are being rebuilt after Hurricane Ian
The Federal Emergency Management Agency recently sent a letter to officials in Lee County, Florida alleging that hundreds of homes were rebuilt in violation of the agency’s rules following Hurricane Ian. The letter provoked a sharp backlash as homeowners struggle to rebuild following the devastating 2022 storm that destroyed a large swath of the county.
Student Housing | Apr 19, 2024
$115 million Cal State Long Beach student housing project will add 424 beds
A new $115 million project recently broke ground at California State University, Long Beach (CSULB) that will add housing for 424 students at below-market rates. The 108,000 sf La Playa Residence Hall, funded by the State of California’s Higher Education Student Housing Grant Program, will consist of three five-story structures connected by bridges.
Sponsored | Multifamily Housing | Apr 19, 2024
5 Reasons to Opt for Wood I-Joists in Multifamily Construction
From versatility to reliability and adaptability, engineered wood I-joists offer builders, designers and developers numerous advantages in multifamily construction. Discover the top five benefits and handy installation tips.
MFPRO+ News | Apr 18, 2024
Marquette Companies forms alliance with Orion Residential Advisors
Marquette Companies, a national leader in multifamily development, investment, and management, announces its strategic alliance with Deerfield, Ill.-based Orion Residential Advisors, an integrated multifamily investment and operating firm active in multiple markets nationwide.
MFPRO+ New Projects | Apr 16, 2024
Marvel-designed Gowanus Green will offer 955 affordable rental units in Brooklyn
The community consists of approximately 955 units of 100% affordable housing, 28,000 sf of neighborhood service retail and community space, a site for a new public school, and a new 1.5-acre public park.
MFPRO+ News | Apr 15, 2024
Two multifamily management firms merge together
MEB Management Services, a Phoenix-based multifamily management company, and Weller Management, a third-party property management and consulting company, officially merged to become Bryten Real Estate Partners—creating a nationally recognized management company.
Mixed-Use | Apr 13, 2024
Former industrial marina gets adaptive reuse treatment
At its core, adaptive reuse is an active reimagining of the built environment in ways that serve the communities who use it. Successful adaptive reuse uncovers the latent potential in a place and uses it to meet people’s present needs.
MFPRO+ News | Apr 12, 2024
Legal cannabis has cities grappling with odor complaints
Relaxed pot laws have led to a backlash of complaints linked to the odor emitted from smoking and vaping. To date, 24 states have legalized or decriminalized marijuana and several others have made it available for medicinal use.
Multifamily Housing | Apr 12, 2024
Habitat starts leasing Cassidy on Canal, a new luxury rental high-rise in Chicago
New 33-story Class A rental tower, designed by SCB, will offer 343 rental units.