McKinsey & Company, the international corporate consulting firm, has issued a new research study, “Modular construction: From projects to products.” Written by an international team, it discusses a wide range of building sectors, but its main focus is multifamily.
The authors claim that modular construction could claim $45 billion of the total $277 billion new-build multifamily market by 2030 in the U.S. and Europe at moderate penetration and save $6 billion a year in costs.
Assuming the U.S. represents at least half of the market (probably more like 60-70%), those would seem to be very attractive numbers for apartment, student housing, and senior living construction, where modular construction works best.
SEE ALSO: Almost everything you wanted to know about industrial construction
But I have some problems with the McKinsey findings. To start with, I wonder where they got the $277 billion figure for multifamily construction in the U.S. and Europe by 2030. That looks really high to me. It would be a godsend if the U.S. could be producing half of that, say, $130 billion or more of apartments and other forms of multifamily—we sure could use them. But with the U.S. producing at best $60-70 billion in multifamily construction, it’s hard to see a doubling of that rate of construction in the next decade.
The McKinsey numbers may also be weighted toward the rest of the world, less so toward the U.S. One of the charts I found most intriguing (page 22 of the report, if you’re keeping score) had to do with the current offsite share of housing by country, i.e., how much “factory-produced” housing construction is going on in various countries.
The global leader turns out to be the trifecta of Finland-Norway-Sweden, where 45% of housing construction is produced off site, followed by Japan (15%), Germany (10%), China (6%), and Australia and the U.K. (each 5%). The U.S.? Three percent.
It’s not all doom and gloom for the U.S. Modular, prefab, or “industrial construction” is starting to catch on, particularly in student housing and the low- to mid-rise apartment sector. One reason for this is the pervasive adoption of Revit and other 3D modeling tools, which make it relatively easy to transfer data from the designer’s desktop directly to the offsite factory.
Another reason why we’ll see more industrial construction in multifamily is the dire shortage of skilled labor. As the McKinsey experts note, shifting to offsite manufacture is cheaper—and “it may even attract new people into the workforce who do not wish to move from one construction site to another following projects.” Or who’d rather be in a nice cozy factory than freezing their butts on a job site in the middle of a Minnesota winter.
But don’t expect huge savings in initial costs. The most important benefit of offsite construction, when done right, is reliability—the assurance that a wall system or an entire room module can and will be delivered on time and to high level of specification.
Related Stories
Fire and Life Safety | Jan 9, 2023
Why lithium-ion batteries pose fire safety concerns for buildings
Lithium-ion batteries have become the dominant technology in phones, laptops, scooters, electric bikes, electric vehicles, and large-scale battery energy storage facilities. Here’s what you need to know about the fire safety concerns they pose for building owners and occupants.
Multifamily Housing | Dec 29, 2022
San Jose is largest U.S. city to abolish minimum parking for new housing
San Jose, Calif., recently became the largest U.S. city to strike down minimum parking requirements for new housing development. The city reversed zoning devised in the 1950s that reputedly gave it the worst sprawl of parking space in northern California.
Codes and Standards | Dec 29, 2022
New York City multifamily owners concerned over fires caused by e-bikes
In 2022, there have been nearly 200 fires and six deaths in New York City caused by lithium-ion batteries used in mobility devices such as electric bikes and scooters.
Multifamily Housing | Dec 27, 2022
Traverse Apartments brings 281 sorely needed rental units to the Denver area
Traverse Apartments offers 281 units, designed by KTGY, is located in Lakewood, Colo.
Multifamily Housing | Dec 21, 2022
Bay Area school district builds 122 affordable apartments for faculty and staff
The 122 affordable apartments at 705 Serramonte, Daly City, Calif., were set aside not for faculty and staff at Jefferson Union High School District.
Multifamily Housing | Dec 20, 2022
Brooks + Scarpa-designed apartment provides affordable housing to young people aging out of support facilities
In Venice, Calif., the recently completed Rose Apartments provides affordable housing to young people who age out of youth facilities and often end up living on the street. Designed by Brooks + Scarpa, the four-story, 35-unit mixed-use apartment building will house transitional aged youths.
Coatings | Dec 20, 2022
The Pier Condominiums — What's old is new again!
When word was out that the condominium association was planning to carry out a refresh of the Pier Condominiums on Fort Norfolk, Hanbury jumped at the chance to remake what had become a tired, faded project.
Cladding and Facade Systems | Dec 20, 2022
Acoustic design considerations at the building envelope
Acentech's Ben Markham identifies the primary concerns with acoustic performance at the building envelope and offers proven solutions for mitigating acoustic issues.
Self-Storage Facilities | Dec 16, 2022
Self-storage development booms in high multifamily construction areas
A 2022 RentCafe analysis finds that self-storage units swelled in conjunction with metros’ growth in apartment complexes.
Sponsored | Resiliency | Dec 14, 2022
Flood protection: What building owners need to know to protect their properties
This course from Walter P Moore examines numerous flood protection approaches and building owner needs before delving into the flood protection process. Determining the flood resilience of a property can provide a good understanding of risk associated costs.