McKinsey & Company, the international corporate consulting firm, has issued a new research study, “Modular construction: From projects to products.” Written by an international team, it discusses a wide range of building sectors, but its main focus is multifamily.
The authors claim that modular construction could claim $45 billion of the total $277 billion new-build multifamily market by 2030 in the U.S. and Europe at moderate penetration and save $6 billion a year in costs.
Assuming the U.S. represents at least half of the market (probably more like 60-70%), those would seem to be very attractive numbers for apartment, student housing, and senior living construction, where modular construction works best.
SEE ALSO: Almost everything you wanted to know about industrial construction
But I have some problems with the McKinsey findings. To start with, I wonder where they got the $277 billion figure for multifamily construction in the U.S. and Europe by 2030. That looks really high to me. It would be a godsend if the U.S. could be producing half of that, say, $130 billion or more of apartments and other forms of multifamily—we sure could use them. But with the U.S. producing at best $60-70 billion in multifamily construction, it’s hard to see a doubling of that rate of construction in the next decade.
The McKinsey numbers may also be weighted toward the rest of the world, less so toward the U.S. One of the charts I found most intriguing (page 22 of the report, if you’re keeping score) had to do with the current offsite share of housing by country, i.e., how much “factory-produced” housing construction is going on in various countries.
The global leader turns out to be the trifecta of Finland-Norway-Sweden, where 45% of housing construction is produced off site, followed by Japan (15%), Germany (10%), China (6%), and Australia and the U.K. (each 5%). The U.S.? Three percent.
It’s not all doom and gloom for the U.S. Modular, prefab, or “industrial construction” is starting to catch on, particularly in student housing and the low- to mid-rise apartment sector. One reason for this is the pervasive adoption of Revit and other 3D modeling tools, which make it relatively easy to transfer data from the designer’s desktop directly to the offsite factory.
Another reason why we’ll see more industrial construction in multifamily is the dire shortage of skilled labor. As the McKinsey experts note, shifting to offsite manufacture is cheaper—and “it may even attract new people into the workforce who do not wish to move from one construction site to another following projects.” Or who’d rather be in a nice cozy factory than freezing their butts on a job site in the middle of a Minnesota winter.
But don’t expect huge savings in initial costs. The most important benefit of offsite construction, when done right, is reliability—the assurance that a wall system or an entire room module can and will be delivered on time and to high level of specification.
Related Stories
| May 21, 2013
Foster + Partners reveals plans for London residential towers
British firm Foster + Partners has unveiled plans for two residential skyscrapers as part of a mixed-use development in north London.
| May 21, 2013
7 tile trends for 2013: Touch-sensitive glazes, metallic tones among top styles
Tile of Spain consultant and ceramic tile expert Ryan Fasan presented his "What's Trending in Tile" roundup at the Coverings 2013 show in Atlanta earlier this month. Here's an overview of Fasan's emerging tile trends for 2013.
| May 20, 2013
Jones Lang LaSalle: All U.S. real estate sectors to post gains in 2013—even retail
With healthier job growth numbers and construction volumes at near-historic lows, real estate experts at Jones Lang LaSalle see a rosy year for U.S. commercial construction.
| May 7, 2013
First look: Adrian Smith + Gordon Gill skyscraper designed to 'confuse the wind'
The 400-meter-high, 116-story Imperial Tower in Mumbai will feature a slender, rounded form optimized to withstand the area's strong wind currents.
| May 6, 2013
7 major multifamily residential projects in the works
A $140 million redevelopment of a landmark, 45-building apartment complex in Los Angeles is among the nation's significant multifamily developments under way.
| Apr 30, 2013
Tips for designing with fire rated glass - AIA/CES course
Kate Steel of Steel Consulting Services offers tips and advice for choosing the correct code-compliant glazing product for every fire-rated application. This BD+C University class is worth 1.0 AIA LU/HSW.
| Apr 26, 2013
BIG tapped to design Europa City in suburban Paris
Danish architecture firm, BIG - led by Bjarke Ingels – has been announced as the winner of an international invited competition for the design of Europa City, a 800,000 square meter cultural, recreational and retail development in Triangle de Gonesse, France.
| Apr 24, 2013
Los Angeles may add cool roofs to its building code
Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa wants cool roofs added to the city’s building code. He is also asking the Department of Water and Power (LADWP) to create incentives that make it financially attractive for homeowners to install cool roofs.
| Apr 22, 2013
Top 10 green building projects for 2013 [slideshow]
The AIA's Committee on the Environment selected its top ten examples of sustainable architecture and green design solutions that protect and enhance the environment.