The work from home trend will continue to put pressure on the office real estate market, with peak vacancy of between 22% and 28% in 2026, according to a forecast by Moody’s.
“The discourse around the purported benefits of in-office work, emphasized by some CEOs, has been prominent in the media,” Moody’s says. “Nevertheless, the argument for maintaining or even increasing remote work practices remains compelling for many businesses. If productivity remains stable and costs can be reduced by forgoing physical office spaces, the rationale for mandating in-office attendance diminishes.”
The base model forecast indicates that the impact on office demand from work from home will be around 14% on average across a 63-month period, resulting in vacancy rates that peak in early 2026 at approximately 24% nationally, Moody’s says. The vacancy rate could reach as high as 28% in the highest-case scenario.
Moody’s forecasts that higher vacancy rates will cut revenue for office landlords by between $8 billion and $10 billion by 2026. That could cause property value deterioration in the range of a quarter-trillion dollars.
Related Stories
| Sep 11, 2013
BUILDINGChicago eShow Daily – Day 3 coverage
Day 3 coverage of the BUILDINGChicago/Greening the Heartland conference and expo, taking place this week at the Holiday Inn Chicago Mart Plaza.
| Sep 10, 2013
BUILDINGChicago eShow Daily – Day 2 coverage
The BD+C editorial team brings you this real-time coverage of day 2 of the BUILDINGChicago/Greening the Heartland conference and expo taking place this week at the Holiday Inn Chicago Mart Plaza.
| Sep 4, 2013
Smart building technology: Talking results at the BUILDINGChicago/ Greening the Heartland show
Recent advancements in technology are allowing owners to connect with facilities as never before, leveraging existing automation systems to achieve cost-effective energy improvements. This BUILDINGChicago presentation will feature Procter & Gamble’s smart building management program.
| Sep 4, 2013
Twenty-nine-acre brick building complex in Watertown, Mass., to be renovated as innovation hub
The owner of a 29-acre cluster of brick buildings in Watertown, Mass., wants to reinvent the site as a 21st-century innovation hub.
| Sep 3, 2013
Delinquency rate for commercial real estate loans at lowest level in three years
The delinquency rate for US commercial real estate loans in CMBS dropped for the third straight month to 8.38%. This represents a 10-basis-point drop since July's reading and a 175-basis-point improvement from a year ago.
| Aug 30, 2013
Local Government Report [2013 Giants 300 Report]
Building Design+Construction's rankings of the nation's largest local government design and construction firms, as reported in the 2013 Giants 300 Report.
| Aug 30, 2013
State Government Report [2013 Giants 300 Report]
Stantec, Jacobs, PCL Construction among nation's top state government design and construction firms, according to BD+C's 2013 Giants 300 Report.
| Aug 28, 2013
Federal Government Report [2013 Giants 300 Report]
Building Design+Construction's rankings of the nation's largest federal government design and construction firms, as reported in the 2013 Giants 300 Report.
| Aug 26, 2013
What you missed last week: Architecture billings up again; record year for hotel renovations; nation's most expensive real estate markets
BD+C's roundup of the top construction market news for the week of August 18 includes the latest architecture billings index from AIA and a BOMA study on the nation's most and least expensive commercial real estate markets.
| Aug 23, 2013
5 most (and least) expensive commercial real estate markets
With an average cost per square foot of $16.11, Stamford, Conn., is the most costly U.S. market for commercial real estate, according to a new study by the Building Owners and Managers Association International. New York and San Francisco are also among the nation's priciest markets.
