The work from home trend will continue to put pressure on the office real estate market, with peak vacancy of between 22% and 28% in 2026, according to a forecast by Moody’s.
“The discourse around the purported benefits of in-office work, emphasized by some CEOs, has been prominent in the media,” Moody’s says. “Nevertheless, the argument for maintaining or even increasing remote work practices remains compelling for many businesses. If productivity remains stable and costs can be reduced by forgoing physical office spaces, the rationale for mandating in-office attendance diminishes.”
The base model forecast indicates that the impact on office demand from work from home will be around 14% on average across a 63-month period, resulting in vacancy rates that peak in early 2026 at approximately 24% nationally, Moody’s says. The vacancy rate could reach as high as 28% in the highest-case scenario.
Moody’s forecasts that higher vacancy rates will cut revenue for office landlords by between $8 billion and $10 billion by 2026. That could cause property value deterioration in the range of a quarter-trillion dollars.
Related Stories
| Jun 24, 2014
Intuit begins work on LEED Platinum campus addition
Demolition will begin this week as a precursor to construction of Intuit's new addition to its Mountain View, Calif., campus. The first of two additions, a 185,000-sf building on Marine Way, is expected to begin construction in August.
| Jun 20, 2014
Sterling Bay pulled on board for Chicago Old Main Post Office project
Sterling Bay Cos. and Bill Davies' International Property Developers North America partner up for a $500 million restoration of Chicago's Old Main Post Office
| Jun 19, 2014
First look: JDS Architects' roller-coaster-like design for Istanbul waterfront development
The development's wavy and groovy design promises unobstructed views of the Marmara Sea for every unit.
| Jun 18, 2014
Study shows walkable urbanism has positive economic impact
Walkable communities have a higher GDP, greater wealth, and higher percentages of college grads, according to a new study by George Washington University.
| Jun 18, 2014
Arup uses 3D printing to fabricate one-of-a-kind structural steel components
The firm's research shows that 3D printing has the potential to reduce costs, cut waste, and slash the carbon footprint of the construction sector.
| Jun 17, 2014
World's tallest pair of towers to serve as 'environmental catalyst' for China
The Phoenix Towers are expected to reach 1 km, the same height as Adrian Smith and Gordon Gill's Kingdom Tower, but would set a record for multiple towers in one development.
| Jun 16, 2014
6 U.S. cities at the forefront of innovation districts
A new Brookings Institution study records the emergence of “competitive places that are also cool spaces.”
| Jun 12, 2014
Tod Williams Billie Tsien Architects' design selected for new UCSC facility
The planned site is a natural landscape among redwood trees with views over Monterey Bay, a site that the architects have called “one of the most beautiful they have ever worked on.”
| Jun 12, 2014
Austrian university develops 'inflatable' concrete dome method
Constructing a concrete dome is a costly process, but this may change soon. A team from the Vienna University of Technology has developed a method that allows concrete domes to form with the use of air and steel cables instead of expensive, timber supporting structures.
| Jun 11, 2014
Bill signing signals approval to revitalize New Orleans’ convention center corridor
A plan to revitalize New Orleans' Convention Center moves forward after Louisiana governor signs bill.
