The work from home trend will continue to put pressure on the office real estate market, with peak vacancy of between 22% and 28% in 2026, according to a forecast by Moody’s.
“The discourse around the purported benefits of in-office work, emphasized by some CEOs, has been prominent in the media,” Moody’s says. “Nevertheless, the argument for maintaining or even increasing remote work practices remains compelling for many businesses. If productivity remains stable and costs can be reduced by forgoing physical office spaces, the rationale for mandating in-office attendance diminishes.”
The base model forecast indicates that the impact on office demand from work from home will be around 14% on average across a 63-month period, resulting in vacancy rates that peak in early 2026 at approximately 24% nationally, Moody’s says. The vacancy rate could reach as high as 28% in the highest-case scenario.
Moody’s forecasts that higher vacancy rates will cut revenue for office landlords by between $8 billion and $10 billion by 2026. That could cause property value deterioration in the range of a quarter-trillion dollars.
Related Stories
Office Buildings | Jan 24, 2024
Office designs need to lean in on wellness, says a new HMC Architects report
The firm highlights seven recent design projects for public-sector clients as examples.
Industry Research | Jan 23, 2024
Leading economists forecast 4% growth in construction spending for nonresidential buildings in 2024
Spending on nonresidential buildings will see a modest 4% increase in 2024, after increasing by more than 20% last year according to The American Institute of Architects’ latest Consensus Construction Forecast. The pace will slow to just over 1% growth in 2025, a marked difference from the strong performance in 2023.
Adaptive Reuse | Jan 23, 2024
Adaptive reuse report shows 55K impact of office-to-residential conversions
The latest RentCafe annual Adaptive Reuse report shows that there are 55,300 office-to-residential units in the pipeline as of 2024—four times as much compared to 2021.
Giants 400 | Jan 23, 2024
Top 70 Medical Office Building Construction Firms for 2023
PCL Construction Enterprises, Swinerton, Skanska USA, Clark Group, and Hensel Phelps top BD+C's ranking of the nation's largest medical office building general contractors and construction management (CM) firms for 2023, as reported in the 2023 Giants 400 Report.
Giants 400 | Jan 23, 2024
Top 50 Medical Office Building Engineering Firms for 2023
Jacobs, Salas O'Brien, KPFF Consulting Engineers, IMEG, and Kimley-Horn head BD+C's ranking of the nation's largest medical office building engineering and engineering/architecture (EA) firms for 2023, as reported in the 2023 Giants 400 Report.
Giants 400 | Jan 23, 2024
Top 110 Medical Office Building Architecture Firms for 2023
SmithGroup, CannonDesign, E4H Environments for Health Architecture, and Perkins Eastman top BD+C's ranking of the nation's largest medical office building architecture and architecture engineering (AE) firms for 2023, as reported in the 2023 Giants 400 Report.
Office Buildings | Jan 19, 2024
How to strengthen office design as employees return to work
Adam James, AIA, Senior Architect, Design Collaborative, shares office design tips for the increasingly dynamic workplace.
Adaptive Reuse | Jan 18, 2024
Coca-Cola packaging warehouse transformed into mixed-use complex
The 250,000-sf structure is located along a now defunct railroad line that forms the footprint for the city’s multi-phase Beltline pedestrian/bike path that will eventually loop around the city.
Sponsored | BD+C University Course | Jan 17, 2024
Waterproofing deep foundations for new construction
This continuing education course, by Walter P Moore's Amos Chan, P.E., BECxP, CxA+BE, covers design considerations for below-grade waterproofing for new construction, the types of below-grade systems available, and specific concerns associated with waterproofing deep foundations.
Biophilic Design | Jan 16, 2024
New supertall Manhattan tower features wraparound green terraces
At 66 stories and 1,031.5 ft high, The Spiral is BIG’s first supertall building and first commercial high-rise in New York.