The work from home trend will continue to put pressure on the office real estate market, with peak vacancy of between 22% and 28% in 2026, according to a forecast by Moody’s.
“The discourse around the purported benefits of in-office work, emphasized by some CEOs, has been prominent in the media,” Moody’s says. “Nevertheless, the argument for maintaining or even increasing remote work practices remains compelling for many businesses. If productivity remains stable and costs can be reduced by forgoing physical office spaces, the rationale for mandating in-office attendance diminishes.”
The base model forecast indicates that the impact on office demand from work from home will be around 14% on average across a 63-month period, resulting in vacancy rates that peak in early 2026 at approximately 24% nationally, Moody’s says. The vacancy rate could reach as high as 28% in the highest-case scenario.
Moody’s forecasts that higher vacancy rates will cut revenue for office landlords by between $8 billion and $10 billion by 2026. That could cause property value deterioration in the range of a quarter-trillion dollars.
Related Stories
Seismic Design | Feb 27, 2023
Turkey earthquakes provide lessons for California
Two recent deadly earthquakes in Turkey and Syria offer lessons regarding construction practices and codes for California. Lax building standards were blamed for much of the devastation, including well over 35,000 dead and countless building collapses.
Sports and Recreational Facilities | Feb 27, 2023
New 20,000-seat soccer stadium will anchor neighborhood development in Indianapolis
A new 20,000-seat soccer stadium for United Soccer League’s Indy Eleven will be the centerpiece of a major neighborhood development in Indianapolis. The development will transform the southwest quadrant of downtown Indianapolis by adding more than 600 apartments, 205,000 sf of office space, 197,000 sf for retail space and restaurants, parking garages, a hotel, and public plazas with green space.
Retail Centers | Feb 24, 2023
Santiago Calatrava unveils plans for a luxury retail and office complex in Düsseldorf, Germany
Renowned architect and engineer Santiago Calatrava, along with the CENTRUM Group, has unveiled plans for Calatrava Boulevard, a luxury retail and office complex in Düsseldorf, Germany. Running parallel to Königsallee and connecting with the Steinstrasse station, Calatrava Boulevard will incorporate and connect to the boulevard’s existing buildings.
Reconstruction & Renovation | Feb 16, 2023
Insights from over 300 potential office-to-residential conversions
Research from Gensler finds that, surprisingly, the features that result in an unpleasant office often make for a superlative multifamily product.
High-rise Construction | Feb 15, 2023
Bjarke Ingels' 'leaning towers' concept wins Qianhai Prisma Towers design competition
A pair of sloped high-rises—a 300-meter residential tower and a 250-meter office tower—highlight the Qianhai Prisma Towers development in Qianhai, Shenzhen, China. BIG recently won the design competition for the project.
Office Buildings | Feb 12, 2023
Smyrna Ready Mix’s new office HQ mimics the patterns in the company’s onsite stone quarry
Designed by EOA Architects to showcase various concrete processes and applications, Smyrna Ready Mix's new office headquarters features vertical layering that mimics the patterns in the company’s stone quarry, located on the opposite end of the campus site. The building’s glass and concrete bands are meant to mirror the quarry’s natural contours and striations.
Office Buildings | Feb 9, 2023
Post-Covid Manhattan office market rebound gaining momentum
Office workers in Manhattan continue to return to their workplaces in sufficient numbers for many of their employers to maintain or expand their footprint in the city, according to a survey of more than 140 major Manhattan office employers conducted in January by The Partnership for New York City.
Giants 400 | Feb 9, 2023
New Giants 400 download: Get the complete at-a-glance 2022 Giants 400 rankings in Excel
See how your architecture, engineering, or construction firm stacks up against the nation's AEC Giants. For more than 45 years, the editors of Building Design+Construction have surveyed the largest AEC firms in the U.S./Canada to create the annual Giants 400 report. This year, a record 519 firms participated in the Giants 400 report. The final report includes 137 rankings across 25 building sectors and specialty categories.
Codes and Standards | Feb 8, 2023
GSA releases draft of federal low embodied carbon material standards
The General Services Administration recently released a document that outlines standards for low embodied carbon materials and products to be used on federal construction projects.
Giants 400 | Feb 6, 2023
2022 Reconstruction Sector Giants: Top architecture, engineering, and construction firms in the U.S. building reconstruction and renovation sector
Gensler, Stantec, IPS, Alfa Tech, STO Building Group, and Turner Construction top BD+C's rankings of the nation's largest reconstruction sector architecture, engineering, and construction firms, as reported in the 2022 Giants 400 Report.