The work from home trend will continue to put pressure on the office real estate market, with peak vacancy of between 22% and 28% in 2026, according to a forecast by Moody’s.
“The discourse around the purported benefits of in-office work, emphasized by some CEOs, has been prominent in the media,” Moody’s says. “Nevertheless, the argument for maintaining or even increasing remote work practices remains compelling for many businesses. If productivity remains stable and costs can be reduced by forgoing physical office spaces, the rationale for mandating in-office attendance diminishes.”
The base model forecast indicates that the impact on office demand from work from home will be around 14% on average across a 63-month period, resulting in vacancy rates that peak in early 2026 at approximately 24% nationally, Moody’s says. The vacancy rate could reach as high as 28% in the highest-case scenario.
Moody’s forecasts that higher vacancy rates will cut revenue for office landlords by between $8 billion and $10 billion by 2026. That could cause property value deterioration in the range of a quarter-trillion dollars.
Related Stories
| Feb 1, 2012
ULI and Greenprint Foundation create ULI Greenprint Center for Building Performance
Member-to-member information exchange measures energy use, carbon footprint of commercial portfolios.
| Jan 31, 2012
Chapman Construction/Design: ‘Sustainability is part of everything we do’
Chapman Construction/Design builds a working culture around sustainability—for its clients, and for its employees.
| Jan 26, 2012
Three dead, 16 missing in Rio buildings collapse
The buildings, one 20 floors high, collapsed on Wednesday night in a cloud of dust and smoke just one block away from the city's historic Municipal Theater.
| Jan 26, 2012
Summit Design+Build completes law office in Chicago
Applegate & Thorne-Thomsen's new office suite features private offices, open office area, conference rooms, reception area, exposed wood beams and columns, and exposed brick.
| Jan 17, 2012
SOM Chicago wins competition to design China's Suzhou Center
The 75-level building is designed to accommodate a complex mixed-use program including office, service apartments, hotel and retail on a 37,000 sm site.
| Jan 15, 2012
Hollister Construction Services oversees interior office fit-out for Harding Loevner
The work includes constructing open space areas, new conference, trading and training rooms, along with multiple kitchenettes.
| Jan 15, 2012
Smith Consulting Architects designs Flower Hill Promenade expansion in Del Mar, Calif.
The $22 million expansion includes a 75,000-square-foot, two-story retail/office building and a 397-car parking structure, along with parking and circulation improvements and new landscaping throughout.
| Jan 12, 2012
CSHQA receives AIA Northwest & Pacific Region Merit Award for Idaho State Capitol restoration
After a century of service, use, and countless modifications which eroded the historical character of the building and grounds, the restoration brought the 200,000-sf building back to its former grandeur by restoring historical elements, preserving existing materials, and rehabilitating spaces for contemporary uses.
| Jan 4, 2012
New LEED Silver complex provides space for education and research
The academic-style facility supports education/training and research functions, and contains classrooms, auditoriums, laboratories, administrative offices and library facilities, as well as spaces for operating highly sophisticated training equipment.
| Jan 3, 2012
VDK Architects merges with Harley Ellis Devereaux
Harley Ellis Devereaux will relocate the employees in its current Berkeley, Calif., office to the new Oakland office location effective January 3, 2012.