A rising tide of new office projects may be skewing the national average rental rate upward and obscuring increased leasing challenges for second-generation properties in many markets, Transwestern’s latest U.S. office market report suggests.
Monthly asking rent averaged $26.97 per square foot in the third quarter, representing a 3.4% increase from a year earlier and a five-year gain of 19.7%. Much of that national increase reflects above-market rents at new or renovated projects, where landlords have incurred elevated material and labor costs to complete amenity-rich offerings.
The national vacancy rate has plateaued near 9.8%, equal to the rate one year ago. A dozen of the 49 markets Transwestern tracks showed negative net absorption or an increase in the volume of vacant space for the 12 months ended September. Nationwide, annualized absorption through the third quarter was 57.3 million square feet, or roughly one-third less than the 85.2 million square feet absorbed in 2018.
Office construction is at a cyclical high. Building starts in the 12 months through the third quarter were up 12.1% over the year-ago period, with more than 166 million square feet of projects underway. The sector delivered 18.5 million square feet of new space in the recent quarter, less than the second quarter’s 21.7 million square feet but up 1.3% from a year earlier, while the national economy and average monthly job growth have slowed.
“Developers have responded vigorously to tenant preferences for new construction,” said Jimmy Hinton, Senior Managing Director of Investment & Analytics at Transwestern. “In many markets, new construction is outpacing already moderating tenant demand, creating extra pressure on older-vintage properties. Landlords are increasingly challenged in reconciling capital improvement needs with cycle timing and prospects for suitable investment returns.”
While high-end rents at new properties can increase a market’s average lease rate, new construction drives rent downward when landlords feel pressure to compete for tenants by lowering rates. In Houston, for example, average third quarter asking rent had declined 0.7% from a year earlier.
Stuart Showers, Vice President of Research in Houston, predicts other markets will experience a similar shift in the coming months, and could represent a late-cycle playbook for landlords in other markets, should macro conditions deteriorate.
“The volume of new office construction pushing through Houston has resulted in downward pressure on rental rates, a situation that will manifest throughout second-generation product in a number of the nation’s markets that have high construction activity,” Showers said.
Download the full third quarter 2019 U.S. office market report at: www.twurls.com/us-office-3q19
Related Stories
Market Data | Jul 29, 2020
62% of metros shed construction jobs from June 2019 to June 2020 as Association calls for new infrastructure funding, other relief steps
New York City and Brockton-Bridgewater-Easton, Mass. have worst 12-month losses, while Austin and Walla Walla, Wash. top job gainers.
Market Data | Jul 29, 2020
6 must reads for the AEC industry today: July 29, 2020
The world's first net-zero airport and California utility adopts climate emergency declaration.
Market Data | Jul 28, 2020
For the fourth consecutive quarter, Los Angeles leads the U.S. hotel construction pipeline at the close of Q2’ 20
New York City continues to have the greatest number of projects under construction, with 106 projects/18,354 rooms.
Market Data | Jul 28, 2020
6 must reads for the AEC industry today: July 28, 2020
St. Petersburg Pier reconstruction completes and post-pandemic workplace design will not be the same for all.
Market Data | Jul 28, 2020
Senate Republicans' coronavirus relief measure includes provisions that will help hard-hit construction firms recover
The HEALS Act includes essential liability, workforce, financial & unemployment reforms, but association will work to get needed infrastructure investments included in final relief measure.
Market Data | Jul 27, 2020
6 must reads for the AEC industry today: July 27, 2020
Customized labs give universities a recruiting edge and the U.S. construction pipeline remains robust through the first half of 2020.
Market Data | Jul 27, 2020
The U.S. construction pipeline remains robust through the first half of 2020, despite pandemic
Projects currently under construction stand at 1,771 projects/235,467 rooms, up 3% and 1% respectively, YOY.
Market Data | Jul 24, 2020
5 must reads for the AEC industry today: July 24, 2020
North Carolina will stop relying on FEMA flood mapping and Cal Poly Pomona's newest project.
Market Data | Jul 23, 2020
New LEED guidance from USGBC helps cities and communities expand resilience efforts in response to the COVID-19 pandemic
Credits integrate public health and social equity with sustainability planning.
Market Data | Jul 23, 2020
6 must reads for the AEC industry today: July 23, 2020
Skanska selects Pickard Chilton to design new ofice tower and days grow long at nursing homes as virus lockdowns drag on.