Uncertainty and high risk are kryptonite to any investment community, and the healthcare real estate sector has seen a heavy dose of both since the beginning of the Great Recession.
From the economic crash of 2008-09, to the enactment of Obamacare in 2010, to the feds’ latest experiment—Ryancare, Republicare, Trumpcare, whatever you want to call it—no other major business sector has dealt with the level of chaos that healthcare owners, developers, providers, and consumers have faced.
Even as Speaker Paul Ryan’s Obamacare replacement died on the vine in Congress, President Trump and the GOP have no plans to walk away from their promise to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act.
So, with a long road of political and financial uncertainty ahead for the healthcare sector, what does this mean for the nonresidential construction industry’s third-largest sector ($41 billion in annual construction spending)?
In the days and weeks following Trump’s historic victory, the consensus among healthcare sector analysts and AEC professionals was that the repeal and replace efforts would cause healthcare owners and developers to pump the brakes on major real estate construction and renovation plans in the pipeline. This, of course, was the case during the early days of the ACA, when many healthcare organizations halted construction projects until they could fully understand the implications of the law, especially the reimbursement structure.
More recent projections paint a slightly more positive picture for the healthcare construction market, at least in the near-term. In its latest healthcare real estate investment update, released last month (http://tinyurl.com/CBREhc17), CBRE Healthcare reported that healthcare providers “appear to be moving along with their strategy”—including their real estate plans—despite the turmoil in Washington, D.C.
“The ACA was a wake-up call for healthcare providers,” the report states. “In the last several years, healthcare providers have focused on ways to deliver care more efficiently and capture a greater market share to further their economies of scale. For developers, this means more outpatient facilities and a push to expand into new markets.”
Other real estate experts are not as upbeat. John Burns Real Estate Consulting, a respected housing market analyst based in Irvine, Calif., released a 68-page white paper last month (http://tinyurl.com/JBRChc17) that identifies healthcare as one of three major industries (the others being technology and automotive) that are “overheated and will likely be shedding jobs sometime soon.”
The most alarming indicator cited by JBRC: the sector’s rapid accumulation of debt—308% since 2009. This rate of growth far outpaces industry job and GDP growth, a circumstance that, historically, has triggered industry downturns.
Related Stories
| Mar 28, 2012
Tsoi/Kobis & Associates developing master plan for UT Southwestern Medical Center
Firm will spearhead strategies for transforming existing in-patient hospital into state-of-the-art ambulatory care facility.
| Mar 26, 2012
Jones Lang LaSalle completes construction of $536M Parkview Regional Medical Center
Hospital ushers in new era of local access to advanced medical treatments in Northeast Indiana.
| Mar 21, 2012
Iowa’s Mercy Medical Center’s new Emergency Department constructed using Lean design
New Emergency Department features a "racetrack" design with a central nurses' station encircled by 19 private patient examination rooms and 2 trauma treatment rooms.
| Mar 19, 2012
HKS Selected for Baylor Medical Center at Waxahachie
Baylor Medical Center at Waxahachiewill incorporate advanced technology including telemedicine, digital imaging, remote patient monitoring, electronic medical records and computer patient records.
| Mar 14, 2012
Tsoi/Kobus and Centerbrook to design Jackson Laboratory facility in Farmington, Conn.
Building will house research into personalized, gene-based cancer screening and treatment.
| Mar 6, 2012
Country’s first Green House home for veterans completed
Residences at VA Danville to provide community-centered housing for military veterans.
| Mar 1, 2012
7 keys to ‘Highest value, lowest cost’ for healthcare construction
The healthcare design and construction picture has been muddied by uncertainty over the new healthcare law. Hospital systems are in a bind, not knowing what levels of reimbursement to expect. Building Teams serving this sector will have to work even harder to meet growing client demands.
| Feb 29, 2012
Construction begins on Keller Army Community Hospital addition
The 51,000 square foot addition will become the home for optometry, ophthalmology, physical therapy, and orthopedics clinics, as well as provide TRICARE office space.
| Feb 29, 2012
Shepley Bulfinch selected to design new Children’s Hospital of Buffalo
The firm was selected because of their past experience in designing clinically complex facilities that emphasize patient- and family-centered care and operational efficiency as well as distinctive architectural forms for many other children's and women's hospitals.
