Uncertainty and high risk are kryptonite to any investment community, and the healthcare real estate sector has seen a heavy dose of both since the beginning of the Great Recession.
From the economic crash of 2008-09, to the enactment of Obamacare in 2010, to the feds’ latest experiment—Ryancare, Republicare, Trumpcare, whatever you want to call it—no other major business sector has dealt with the level of chaos that healthcare owners, developers, providers, and consumers have faced.
Even as Speaker Paul Ryan’s Obamacare replacement died on the vine in Congress, President Trump and the GOP have no plans to walk away from their promise to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act.
So, with a long road of political and financial uncertainty ahead for the healthcare sector, what does this mean for the nonresidential construction industry’s third-largest sector ($41 billion in annual construction spending)?
In the days and weeks following Trump’s historic victory, the consensus among healthcare sector analysts and AEC professionals was that the repeal and replace efforts would cause healthcare owners and developers to pump the brakes on major real estate construction and renovation plans in the pipeline. This, of course, was the case during the early days of the ACA, when many healthcare organizations halted construction projects until they could fully understand the implications of the law, especially the reimbursement structure.
More recent projections paint a slightly more positive picture for the healthcare construction market, at least in the near-term. In its latest healthcare real estate investment update, released last month (http://tinyurl.com/CBREhc17), CBRE Healthcare reported that healthcare providers “appear to be moving along with their strategy”—including their real estate plans—despite the turmoil in Washington, D.C.
“The ACA was a wake-up call for healthcare providers,” the report states. “In the last several years, healthcare providers have focused on ways to deliver care more efficiently and capture a greater market share to further their economies of scale. For developers, this means more outpatient facilities and a push to expand into new markets.”
Other real estate experts are not as upbeat. John Burns Real Estate Consulting, a respected housing market analyst based in Irvine, Calif., released a 68-page white paper last month (http://tinyurl.com/JBRChc17) that identifies healthcare as one of three major industries (the others being technology and automotive) that are “overheated and will likely be shedding jobs sometime soon.”
The most alarming indicator cited by JBRC: the sector’s rapid accumulation of debt—308% since 2009. This rate of growth far outpaces industry job and GDP growth, a circumstance that, historically, has triggered industry downturns.
Related Stories
Sponsored | | Mar 25, 2014
Johns Hopkins chooses SLENDERWALL for a critical medical facility reconstruction
After decades of wear, the hand-laid brick envelope of the Johns Hopkins nine-story Nelson/Harvey inpatient facility began failing. SLENDERWALL met the requirements for renovation.
| Mar 20, 2014
Common EIFS failures, and how to prevent them
Poor workmanship, impact damage, building movement, and incompatible or unsound substrate are among the major culprits of EIFS problems.
| Mar 19, 2014
How to develop a healthcare capital project using a 'true north charter'
Because healthcare projects take years to implement, developing a true north charter is essential for keeping the entire team on track and moving in the right direction.
| Mar 18, 2014
6 keys to better healthcare design
Healthcare facility planning and design experts cite six factors that Building Teams need to keep in mind on their next healthcare project.
| Mar 18, 2014
How your AEC firm can win more healthcare projects
Cutthroat competition and the vagaries of the Affordable Healthcare Act are making capital planning a more daunting task than ever. Our experts provide inside advice on how AEC firms can secure more work from hospital systems.
| Mar 13, 2014
Do you really 'always turn right'?
The first visitor center we designed was the Ernest F. Coe Visitor Center for the Everglades National Park in 1993. I remember it well for a variety of reasons, not the least of which was the ongoing dialogue we had with our retail consultant. He insisted that the gift shop be located on the right as one exited the visitor center because people “always turn right.”
| Mar 12, 2014
14 new ideas for doors and door hardware
From a high-tech classroom lockdown system to an impact-resistant wide-stile door line, BD+C editors present a collection of door and door hardware innovations.
| Feb 21, 2014
Naturally ventilated hospital planned in Singapore
The Ng Teng Fong General Hospital will take advantage of the region's prevailing breezes to cool the spaces.
| Feb 18, 2014
Study: 90% of healthcare providers say Affordable Care Act is 'step forward,' but major revisions needed
Providers are excited about opportunities to address long-term health issues in the U.S., but worries about the transition persist, according to a new study by Mortenson Construction.
| Feb 17, 2014
Lawmakers may take away control of Florida hospital project from the VA
The project is $100 million over budget and has missed its scheduled completion date.