The medical office and industrial sectors will drive what is expected to be moderate growth in the commercial real estate market this year, predict the real estate advisory teams of Transwestern and Devencore located in 43 U.S. and Canadian metros.
The biggest potential impediments to that growth could be rising build-out costs and regulations on how medical tenants can use space.
The survey (which can be downloaded from here) finds that conditions for the U.S. office market, while expected to improve, might still be down slightly from the previous year’s outlook. The Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and West regions are expected to exhibit the strongest office demand. Two fifths of the survey’s respondents expect overall leasing velocity and tenant prospects to be flat this year, as tenants require more time to finalize their decisions.
Brokers and analysts are concerned about ebbing consumer confidence, given the upcoming elections and uncertain economy. Optimists, though, anticipate pockets of demand from tech and medical tenants. Brokers also expect tenant densification (measured by leased space per employee) to continue but at a decelerating pace from last year.
“Tenants are getting creative with space efficiency, with many opting to densify space in order to upgrade quality,” the survey observes.
Flat to slightly better conditions could prevail in most markets this year. Charts: Transwestern and Devencore
This trend might explain why respondents expect development pipelines to be only flat or slightly higher this year, with some markets showing signs of oversupply and rising construction costs. However, tenant leasing will remain intensely competitive, with concession packages staying at least even with 2019 or a bit higher, according to 81% of survey respondents.
About the same percentage think investment interest and pricing will be flat or rise slightly in 2020, and nearly three-fifths (56%) foresee flat capitalization.
The survey also looks at the markets for medical offices, industrial, and Canada’s office market. Its findings include the following:
•The medical office sector will “handsomely” outperform in 2020, with leasing activity, tenant walk throughs, asking rents and development all expected to be higher this year.
•Half of the respondents expect conditions for industrial to be healthy, albeit with slight deceleration in leasing velocity. And while brokers see some overbuilding occurring in markets like Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth, “generally, low supply, coupled with high demand from ecommerce, is forecasted to drive the market.”
•With the exception of Alberta, Canada’s major provinces—Ontario, British Columbia, and Quebec—should see leasing velocity and tenant prospects pick up this year. However, tenants are now taking anywhere from seven to 12 months to sign midsized deals.
Related Stories
Market Data | Apr 29, 2019
U.S. economic growth crosses 3% threshold to begin the year
Growth was fueled by myriad factors, including personal consumption expenditures, private inventory investment, surprisingly rapid growth in exports, state and local government spending and intellectual property.
Market Data | Apr 18, 2019
ABC report: 'Confidence seems to be making a comeback in America'
The Construction Confidence Index remained strong in February, according to the Associated Builders and Contractors.
Market Data | Apr 16, 2019
ABC’s Construction Backlog Indicator rebounds in February
ABC's Construction Backlog Indicator expanded to 8.8 months in February 2019.
Market Data | Apr 8, 2019
Engineering, construction spending to rise 3% in 2019: FMI outlook
Top-performing segments forecast in 2019 include transportation, public safety, and education.
Market Data | Apr 1, 2019
Nonresidential spending expands again in February
Private nonresidential spending fell 0.5% for the month and is only up 0.1% on a year-over-year basis.
Market Data | Mar 22, 2019
Construction contractors regain confidence in January 2019
Expectations for sales during the coming six-month period remained especially upbeat in January.
Market Data | Mar 21, 2019
Billings moderate in February following robust New Year
AIA’s Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score for February was 50.3, down from 55.3 in January.
Market Data | Mar 19, 2019
ABC’s Construction Backlog Indicator declines sharply in January 2019
The Construction Backlog Indicator contracted to 8.1 months during January 2019.
Market Data | Mar 15, 2019
2019 starts off with expansion in nonresidential spending
At a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, nonresidential spending totaled $762.5 billion for the month.
Market Data | Mar 14, 2019
Construction input prices rise for first time since October
Of the 11 construction subcategories, seven experienced price declines for the month.