The medical office and industrial sectors will drive what is expected to be moderate growth in the commercial real estate market this year, predict the real estate advisory teams of Transwestern and Devencore located in 43 U.S. and Canadian metros.
The biggest potential impediments to that growth could be rising build-out costs and regulations on how medical tenants can use space.
The survey (which can be downloaded from here) finds that conditions for the U.S. office market, while expected to improve, might still be down slightly from the previous year’s outlook. The Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and West regions are expected to exhibit the strongest office demand. Two fifths of the survey’s respondents expect overall leasing velocity and tenant prospects to be flat this year, as tenants require more time to finalize their decisions.
Brokers and analysts are concerned about ebbing consumer confidence, given the upcoming elections and uncertain economy. Optimists, though, anticipate pockets of demand from tech and medical tenants. Brokers also expect tenant densification (measured by leased space per employee) to continue but at a decelerating pace from last year.
“Tenants are getting creative with space efficiency, with many opting to densify space in order to upgrade quality,” the survey observes.
Flat to slightly better conditions could prevail in most markets this year. Charts: Transwestern and Devencore
This trend might explain why respondents expect development pipelines to be only flat or slightly higher this year, with some markets showing signs of oversupply and rising construction costs. However, tenant leasing will remain intensely competitive, with concession packages staying at least even with 2019 or a bit higher, according to 81% of survey respondents.
About the same percentage think investment interest and pricing will be flat or rise slightly in 2020, and nearly three-fifths (56%) foresee flat capitalization.
The survey also looks at the markets for medical offices, industrial, and Canada’s office market. Its findings include the following:
•The medical office sector will “handsomely” outperform in 2020, with leasing activity, tenant walk throughs, asking rents and development all expected to be higher this year.
•Half of the respondents expect conditions for industrial to be healthy, albeit with slight deceleration in leasing velocity. And while brokers see some overbuilding occurring in markets like Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth, “generally, low supply, coupled with high demand from ecommerce, is forecasted to drive the market.”
•With the exception of Alberta, Canada’s major provinces—Ontario, British Columbia, and Quebec—should see leasing velocity and tenant prospects pick up this year. However, tenants are now taking anywhere from seven to 12 months to sign midsized deals.
Related Stories
Market Data | May 13, 2021
Proliferating materials price increases and supply chain disruptions squeeze contractors and threaten to undermine economic recovery
Producer price index data for April shows wide variety of materials with double-digit price increases.
Market Data | May 7, 2021
Construction employment stalls in April
Soaring costs, supply-chain challenges, and workforce shortages undermine industry's recovery.
Market Data | May 4, 2021
Nonresidential construction outlays drop in March for fourth-straight month
Weak demand, supply-chain woes make further declines likely.
Market Data | May 3, 2021
Nonresidential construction spending decreases 1.1% in March
Spending was down on a monthly basis in 11 of the 16 nonresidential subcategories.
Market Data | Apr 30, 2021
New York City market continues to lead the U.S. Construction Pipeline
New York City has the greatest number of projects under construction with 110 projects/19,457 rooms.
Market Data | Apr 29, 2021
U.S. Hotel Construction pipeline beings 2021 with 4,967 projects/622,218 rooms at Q1 close
Although hotel development may still be tepid in Q1, continued government support and the extension of programs has aided many businesses to get back on their feet as more and more are working to re-staff and re-open.
Market Data | Apr 28, 2021
Construction employment declines in 203 metro areas from March 2020 to March 2021
The decline occurs despite homebuilding boom and improving economy.
Market Data | Apr 20, 2021
The pandemic moves subs and vendors closer to technology
Consigli’s latest market outlook identifies building products that are high risk for future price increases.
Market Data | Apr 20, 2021
Demand for design services continues to rapidly escalate
AIA’s ABI score for March rose to 55.6 compared to 53.3 in February.
Market Data | Apr 16, 2021
Construction employment in March trails March 2020 mark in 35 states
Nonresidential projects lag despite hot homebuilding market.