National nonresidential construction spending fell 0.7% in October but is up 1.4% compared to the same time last year, according to an Associated Builders and Contractors analysis of data published today by the U.S. Census Bureau. On a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, spending totaled $776.5 billion, 2.3% lower than the cyclical peak attained in April 2019.
Private nonresidential spending fell 1.2% on a monthly basis and is down 4.3% from October 2018. Public nonresidential construction spending also declined on a monthly basis, falling 0.1%. On an annual basis, however, public nonresidential spending is up 10.4%.
“At this point, economic indicators are providing mixed signals about the U.S. construction industry’s trajectory,” said ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu. “Today’s release suggests that the industry’s spending cycle is winding toward a close and has been for about six months. Yet, according to the October employment data or ABC’s Construction Backlog Indicator, the story is very different. Those data tell the tale of an industry still wrestling with enormous levels of work and ongoing labor shortages.
“Moreover, though overall nonresidential construction spending is a bit lower than it was six months ago, there are still segments that are performing well,” said Basu. “A number of public construction segments experienced solid growth on monthly and annual bases, including public safety, conservation/development (e.g. flood control), educational and water supply. With state and local government budgets still generally healthy, spending on public works will conceivably remain elevated for the foreseeable future.
“The primary source of weakness has been private construction,” said Basu. “This is consistent with recent readings of ABC’s Construction Confidence Index and a number of other leading indicators. Among the segments softening the fastest are the manufacturing and commercial segments, which are both down on monthly and year-ago bases. Commercial construction is down more than 16% over the past year, which coincides with the fact that 2019 will set a record for store closings in the U.S. as e-commerce continues to gobble up market share. Lodging and office-related construction has also slowed of late, likely because developers have already exhausted many of the best investment opportunities.”
Related Stories
Market Data | Dec 13, 2016
ABC predicts modest growth for 2017 nonresidential construction sector; warns of vulnerability for contractor
“The U.S. economy continues to expand amid a weak global economy and, despite risks to the construction industry, nonresidential spending should expand 3.5 percent in 2017,” says ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu.
Market Data | Dec 2, 2016
Nonresidential construction spending gains momentum
Nonresidential spending is now 2.6 percent higher than at the same time one year ago.
Market Data | Nov 30, 2016
Marcum Commercial Construction Index reports industry outlook has shifted; more change expected
Overall nonresidential construction spending in September totaled $690.5 billion, down a slight 0.7 percent from a year earlier.
Industry Research | Nov 30, 2016
Multifamily millennials: Here is what millennial renters want in 2017
It’s all about technology and convenience when it comes to the things millennial renters value most in a multifamily facility.
Market Data | Nov 29, 2016
It’s not just traditional infrastructure that requires investment
A national survey finds strong support for essential community buildings.
Industry Research | Nov 28, 2016
Building America: The Merit Shop Scorecard
ABC releases state rankings on policies affecting construction industry.
Multifamily Housing | Nov 28, 2016
Axiometrics predicts apartment deliveries will peak by mid 2017
New York is projected to lead the nation next year, thanks to construction delays in 2016
Market Data | Nov 22, 2016
Construction activity will slow next year: JLL
Risk, labor, and technology are impacting what gets built.
Market Data | Nov 17, 2016
Architecture Billings Index rebounds after two down months
Decline in new design contracts suggests volatility in design activity to persist.
Market Data | Nov 11, 2016
Brand marketing: Why the B2B world needs to embrace consumers
The relevance of brand recognition has always been debatable in the B2B universe. With notable exceptions like BASF, few manufacturers or industry groups see value in generating top-of-mind awareness for their products and services with consumers.
