Due to the weather-related slow start in the nonresidential building market during the first part of the year, and the prolonged weakness in the institutional sector, construction spending projections for the rest of the year have been lowered slightly.
The commercial construction sector is still looking at solid spending increases throughout the remainder of 2014, paced by high levels of demand for hotels and office buildings. The American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, is projecting that spending will see a 4.9% increase in 2014 – down from the previous estimate of 5.8%, with next year’s projection holding at 8%.
VIDEO: AIA Chief Economist discusses economic trends for 3rd quarter of 2014
“The institutional market has been a drag on the overall recovery for the design and construction industry for the last few years, and until we see state and local governments ramp up spending for new education, healthcare and public safety structures there likely won’t be a widespread acceleration in spending for the entire industry,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “But we continue to have an optimistic outlook for the commercial and industrial sectors both for the rest of this year and into 2015.”
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2014 |
2015 |
|
|
|
Overall nonresidential building |
4.9% |
8.0% |
|
|
|
Commercial / industrial |
9.9% |
11.2% |
Hotels |
14.5% |
9.2% |
Office buildings |
12.8% |
13.3% |
Industrial facilities |
7.6% |
9.2% |
Retail |
7.4% |
10.4% |
|
|
|
Institutional |
-0.1% |
5.8% |
Amusement / recreation |
3.7% |
6.6% |
Education |
-0.1% |
5.7% |
Healthcare facilities |
-1.8% |
6.6% |
Religious |
-4.1% |
0.7% |
Public safety |
-4.2% |
3.3% |
Baker continued, “While there does not appear to be any structural frailties in the overall economy that could possibly derail increasing levels of construction spending over the next 18 months, lending standards at financial institutions continue to fall well short of the increasing demand for commercial real estate loans, which is another factor that serves as a wild card and a source of concern for the entire industry.”
About the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is conducted twice a year with the leading nonresidential construction forecasters in the United States including, McGraw Hill Construction, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS-Global Insight, Moody’s economy.com, Reed Business Information, Associated Builders & Contractors and FMI. The purpose of the Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is to project business conditions in the construction industry over the coming 12 to 18 months. The Consensus Construction Forecast Panel has been conducted for 15 years.
About The American Institute of Architects
Founded in 1857, members of the American Institute of Architects consistently work to create more valuable, healthy, secure, and sustainable buildings, neighborhoods, and communities. Through nearly 300 state and local chapters, the AIA advocates for public policies that promote economic vitality and public well being. Members adhere to a code of ethics and conduct to ensure the highest professional standards. The AIA provides members with tools and resources to assist them in their careers and business as well as engaging civic and government leaders, and the public to find solutions to pressing issues facing our communities, institutions, nation and world. Visit www.aia.org.
Related Stories
Giants 400 | Aug 25, 2022
Top 155 Apartment and Condominium Architecture Firms for 2022
Solomon Cordwell Buenz, KTGY, Gensler, and AO top the ranking of the nation's largest apartment and condominium architecture and architecture/engineering (AE) firms for 2022, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2022 Giants 400 Report.
University Buildings | Aug 25, 2022
Higher education, striving for ‘normal’ again, puts student needs at the center of project planning
Sustainability and design flexibility are what higher education clients are seeking consistently, according to the dozen AEC Giants contacted for this article. “University campuses across North America are commissioning new construction projects designed to make existing buildings and energy systems more sustainable, and are building new flexible learning space that bridge the gap between remote and in-person learning,” say Patrick McCafferty, Arup’s Education Business Leader–Americas East region, and Matt Humphries, Education Business Leader in Canada region.
| Aug 25, 2022
New York City’s congestion pricing aims to reduce traffic, cut carbon
Officials recently released an environmental assessment that analyzes seven different possible pricing schemes for New York City’s congestion pricing program.
Sponsored | BD+C University Course | Aug 24, 2022
Solutions for cladding performance and supply issues
This course covers design considerations and cladding assembly choices for creating high-performance building envelopes — a crucial element in healthy, energy-efficient buildings.
| Aug 24, 2022
California’s investment in ‘community schools’ could transform K-12 education
California has allocated $4.1-billion to develop ‘community schools’ that have the potential to transform K-12 education.
| Aug 24, 2022
Architecture Billings Index slows but remains healthy
For the eighteenth consecutive month architecture firms reported increasing demand for design services in July, according to a new report today from The American Institute of Architects (AIA).
| Aug 23, 2022
New Mass. climate and energy law allows local bans on fossil fuel-powered appliances
A sweeping Massachusetts climate and energy bill recently signed into law by Republican governor Charlie Baker allows local bans on fossil fuel-powered appliances.
Giants 400 | Aug 22, 2022
Top 100 Science + Technology Facility Architecture + AE Firms 2022
HDR, Flad Architects, Gensler, and DGA top the rankings of the nation's largest science and technology (S+T) facility architecture and architecture/engineering (AE) firms, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2022 Giants 400 Report.
Giants 400 | Aug 22, 2022
Top 85 Laboratory Facility Architecture + AE Firms for 2022
Flad Architects, HDR, DGA, and Payette top the ranking of the nation's largest science and technology (S+T) laboratory facility architecture and architecture/engineering (AE) firms, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2022 Giants 400 Report.
Giants 400 | Aug 22, 2022
Top 85 University Engineering + EA Firms for 2022
AECOM, Jacobs, Salas O'Brien, and IMEG head the ranking of the nation's largest university sector engineering and engineering/architecture (EA) firms, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2022 Giants 400 Report.