Due to the weather-related slow start in the nonresidential building market during the first part of the year, and the prolonged weakness in the institutional sector, construction spending projections for the rest of the year have been lowered slightly.
The commercial construction sector is still looking at solid spending increases throughout the remainder of 2014, paced by high levels of demand for hotels and office buildings. The American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, is projecting that spending will see a 4.9% increase in 2014 – down from the previous estimate of 5.8%, with next year’s projection holding at 8%.
VIDEO: AIA Chief Economist discusses economic trends for 3rd quarter of 2014
“The institutional market has been a drag on the overall recovery for the design and construction industry for the last few years, and until we see state and local governments ramp up spending for new education, healthcare and public safety structures there likely won’t be a widespread acceleration in spending for the entire industry,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “But we continue to have an optimistic outlook for the commercial and industrial sectors both for the rest of this year and into 2015.”
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2014 |
2015 |
|
|
|
Overall nonresidential building |
4.9% |
8.0% |
|
|
|
Commercial / industrial |
9.9% |
11.2% |
Hotels |
14.5% |
9.2% |
Office buildings |
12.8% |
13.3% |
Industrial facilities |
7.6% |
9.2% |
Retail |
7.4% |
10.4% |
|
|
|
Institutional |
-0.1% |
5.8% |
Amusement / recreation |
3.7% |
6.6% |
Education |
-0.1% |
5.7% |
Healthcare facilities |
-1.8% |
6.6% |
Religious |
-4.1% |
0.7% |
Public safety |
-4.2% |
3.3% |
Baker continued, “While there does not appear to be any structural frailties in the overall economy that could possibly derail increasing levels of construction spending over the next 18 months, lending standards at financial institutions continue to fall well short of the increasing demand for commercial real estate loans, which is another factor that serves as a wild card and a source of concern for the entire industry.”
About the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is conducted twice a year with the leading nonresidential construction forecasters in the United States including, McGraw Hill Construction, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS-Global Insight, Moody’s economy.com, Reed Business Information, Associated Builders & Contractors and FMI. The purpose of the Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is to project business conditions in the construction industry over the coming 12 to 18 months. The Consensus Construction Forecast Panel has been conducted for 15 years.
About The American Institute of Architects
Founded in 1857, members of the American Institute of Architects consistently work to create more valuable, healthy, secure, and sustainable buildings, neighborhoods, and communities. Through nearly 300 state and local chapters, the AIA advocates for public policies that promote economic vitality and public well being. Members adhere to a code of ethics and conduct to ensure the highest professional standards. The AIA provides members with tools and resources to assist them in their careers and business as well as engaging civic and government leaders, and the public to find solutions to pressing issues facing our communities, institutions, nation and world. Visit www.aia.org.
Related Stories
Contractors | Oct 4, 2022
Which comes first, the building or the cost estimate?
At the start of a project, don’t forget to establish financial parameters when you’re discussing the design and program. By establishing the costs up front, you can avoid the pitfalls that might derail your project and guarantee its lasting success.
Fire and Life Safety | Oct 4, 2022
Fire safety considerations for cantilevered buildings
Bold cantilevered designs are prevalent today, as developers and architects strive to maximize space, views, and natural light in buildings. Cantilevered structures, however, present a host of challenges for building teams, according to José R. Rivera, PE, Associate Principal and Director of Plumbing and Fire Protection with Lilker.
| Oct 4, 2022
Rental property owners want access to utility usage data for whole properties
As pressure from investors for ESG reporting mounts, owners of multifamily properties increasingly look to collect whole-building utility usage data.
| Oct 4, 2022
In dire need of affordable housing, Aspen, Colo. will get a development that provides 277 affordable homes
A few miles from downtown Aspen, Colo., a development will provide 277 new affordable homes for an area experiencing a dire affordable housing crisis.
Green | Oct 3, 2022
California regulators move to ban gas heaters for existing buildings
California regulators voted unanimously recently on a series of measures that include a ban on the sale of natural gas-powered heating and hot water systems beginning in 2030.
| Oct 3, 2022
The College of the Holy Cross completes a $110 million performing arts center
In Worcester, Mass., a one-hour drive from Boston, the College of the Holy Cross has completed its $110 million Prior Performing Arts Center.
Resiliency | Sep 30, 2022
Designing buildings for wildfire defensibility
Wold Architects and Engineers' Senior Planner Ryan Downs, AIA, talks about how to make structures and communities more fire-resistant.
| Sep 30, 2022
Manley Spangler Smith Architects partners with PBK in strategic merger
Manley Spangler Smith Architects (MSSA), a Georgia-based, full-service architectural firm specializing in educational and municipal facilities, announced today a significant development aimed at increasing its capabilities, expertise, and suite of services.
| Sep 30, 2022
Lab-grown bricks offer potential low-carbon building material
A team of students at the University of Waterloo in Canada have developed a process to grow bricks using bacteria.
| Sep 29, 2022
FitzGerald establishes Denver office
The new location bolsters FitzGerald’s nationwide reach and capitalizes on local expertise and boots-on-the-ground to serve new and existing clients seeking to do business in Denver and the Front Range, as well as the Southwest United States, California, and Texas.