Due to the weather-related slow start in the nonresidential building market during the first part of the year, and the prolonged weakness in the institutional sector, construction spending projections for the rest of the year have been lowered slightly.
The commercial construction sector is still looking at solid spending increases throughout the remainder of 2014, paced by high levels of demand for hotels and office buildings. The American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, is projecting that spending will see a 4.9% increase in 2014 – down from the previous estimate of 5.8%, with next year’s projection holding at 8%.
VIDEO: AIA Chief Economist discusses economic trends for 3rd quarter of 2014
“The institutional market has been a drag on the overall recovery for the design and construction industry for the last few years, and until we see state and local governments ramp up spending for new education, healthcare and public safety structures there likely won’t be a widespread acceleration in spending for the entire industry,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “But we continue to have an optimistic outlook for the commercial and industrial sectors both for the rest of this year and into 2015.”
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2014 |
2015 |
|
|
|
Overall nonresidential building |
4.9% |
8.0% |
|
|
|
Commercial / industrial |
9.9% |
11.2% |
Hotels |
14.5% |
9.2% |
Office buildings |
12.8% |
13.3% |
Industrial facilities |
7.6% |
9.2% |
Retail |
7.4% |
10.4% |
|
|
|
Institutional |
-0.1% |
5.8% |
Amusement / recreation |
3.7% |
6.6% |
Education |
-0.1% |
5.7% |
Healthcare facilities |
-1.8% |
6.6% |
Religious |
-4.1% |
0.7% |
Public safety |
-4.2% |
3.3% |
Baker continued, “While there does not appear to be any structural frailties in the overall economy that could possibly derail increasing levels of construction spending over the next 18 months, lending standards at financial institutions continue to fall well short of the increasing demand for commercial real estate loans, which is another factor that serves as a wild card and a source of concern for the entire industry.”
About the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is conducted twice a year with the leading nonresidential construction forecasters in the United States including, McGraw Hill Construction, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS-Global Insight, Moody’s economy.com, Reed Business Information, Associated Builders & Contractors and FMI. The purpose of the Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is to project business conditions in the construction industry over the coming 12 to 18 months. The Consensus Construction Forecast Panel has been conducted for 15 years.
About The American Institute of Architects
Founded in 1857, members of the American Institute of Architects consistently work to create more valuable, healthy, secure, and sustainable buildings, neighborhoods, and communities. Through nearly 300 state and local chapters, the AIA advocates for public policies that promote economic vitality and public well being. Members adhere to a code of ethics and conduct to ensure the highest professional standards. The AIA provides members with tools and resources to assist them in their careers and business as well as engaging civic and government leaders, and the public to find solutions to pressing issues facing our communities, institutions, nation and world. Visit www.aia.org.
Related Stories
K-12 Schools | Nov 1, 2022
Safety is the abiding design priority for K-12 schools
With some exceptions, architecture, engineering, and construction firms say renovations and adaptive reuse make up the bulk of their work in the K-12 schools sector.
| Nov 1, 2022
Updated Florida building codes helped newer homes withstand Hurricane Ian
Newer homes seemed to fare much better than older structures during Hurricane Ian, suggesting that updated Florida building codes made a difference.
Wood | Nov 1, 2022
A European manufacturer says its engineered wood products can store carbon for decades
Metsä Wood, a Finland-based manufacturer of engineered wood products, says its sustainable, material-efficient products can store carbon for decades, helping to combat climate change.
Data Centers | Oct 31, 2022
Data center construction facing record-breaking inflation, delays
Data center construction projects face record-breaking inflation amid delays to materials deliveries and competition for skilled labor, according to research from global professional services company Turner & Townsend.
School Construction | Oct 31, 2022
Claremont McKenna College science center will foster integrated disciplinary research
The design of the Robert Day Sciences Center at Claremont McKenna College will support “a powerful, multi-disciplinary, computational approach to the grand socio-scientific challenges and opportunities of our time—gene, brain, and climate,” says Hiram E. Chodosh, college president.
Energy Efficient Roofing | Oct 28, 2022
Rooftop mini turbines can pair with solar panels
A new type of wind turbine can pair well on roofs with solar panels, offering a double source of green energy generation for buildings.
Building Team | Oct 27, 2022
Who are you? Four archetypes shaping workspaces
The new lifestyle of work requires new thinking about the locations where people work, what their workflow looks like, and how they are performing their best work.
Codes and Standards | Oct 27, 2022
Florida’s Surfside-inspired safety law puts pressure on condo associations
A Florida law intended to prevent tragedies like the Surfside condominium collapse will place a huge financial burden on condo associations and strain architecture and engineering resources in the state.
University Buildings | Oct 27, 2022
The Collaboratory Building will expand the University of Florida’s School of Design, Construction, and Planning
Design firm Brooks + Scarpa recently broke ground on a new addition to the University of Florida’s School of Design, Construction, and Planning (DCP).
Building Team | Oct 26, 2022
The U.S. hotel construction pipeline shows positive growth year-over-year at Q3 2022 close
According to the third quarter Construction Pipeline Trend Report for the United States from Lodging Econometrics (LE), the U.S. construction pipeline stands at 5,317 projects/629,489 rooms, up 10% by projects and 6% rooms Year-Over-Year (YOY).