Due to the weather-related slow start in the nonresidential building market during the first part of the year, and the prolonged weakness in the institutional sector, construction spending projections for the rest of the year have been lowered slightly.
The commercial construction sector is still looking at solid spending increases throughout the remainder of 2014, paced by high levels of demand for hotels and office buildings. The American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, is projecting that spending will see a 4.9% increase in 2014 – down from the previous estimate of 5.8%, with next year’s projection holding at 8%.
VIDEO: AIA Chief Economist discusses economic trends for 3rd quarter of 2014
“The institutional market has been a drag on the overall recovery for the design and construction industry for the last few years, and until we see state and local governments ramp up spending for new education, healthcare and public safety structures there likely won’t be a widespread acceleration in spending for the entire industry,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “But we continue to have an optimistic outlook for the commercial and industrial sectors both for the rest of this year and into 2015.”
|
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2014 |
2015 |
|
|
|
|
|
Overall nonresidential building |
4.9% |
8.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
Commercial / industrial |
9.9% |
11.2% |
|
Hotels |
14.5% |
9.2% |
|
Office buildings |
12.8% |
13.3% |
|
Industrial facilities |
7.6% |
9.2% |
|
Retail |
7.4% |
10.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
Institutional |
-0.1% |
5.8% |
|
Amusement / recreation |
3.7% |
6.6% |
|
Education |
-0.1% |
5.7% |
|
Healthcare facilities |
-1.8% |
6.6% |
|
Religious |
-4.1% |
0.7% |
|
Public safety |
-4.2% |
3.3% |
Baker continued, “While there does not appear to be any structural frailties in the overall economy that could possibly derail increasing levels of construction spending over the next 18 months, lending standards at financial institutions continue to fall well short of the increasing demand for commercial real estate loans, which is another factor that serves as a wild card and a source of concern for the entire industry.”
About the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is conducted twice a year with the leading nonresidential construction forecasters in the United States including, McGraw Hill Construction, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS-Global Insight, Moody’s economy.com, Reed Business Information, Associated Builders & Contractors and FMI. The purpose of the Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is to project business conditions in the construction industry over the coming 12 to 18 months. The Consensus Construction Forecast Panel has been conducted for 15 years.
About The American Institute of Architects
Founded in 1857, members of the American Institute of Architects consistently work to create more valuable, healthy, secure, and sustainable buildings, neighborhoods, and communities. Through nearly 300 state and local chapters, the AIA advocates for public policies that promote economic vitality and public well being. Members adhere to a code of ethics and conduct to ensure the highest professional standards. The AIA provides members with tools and resources to assist them in their careers and business as well as engaging civic and government leaders, and the public to find solutions to pressing issues facing our communities, institutions, nation and world. Visit www.aia.org.
Related Stories
| Aug 11, 2010
International Living Building Institute established to advance 'living buildings'
The idea of a Living Building, a high-performance building that produces its own power and cleans and reuses all of its water, is gaining momentum around the world. In an effort to oversee the global development of Living Buildings, the International Living Building Institute (ILBI) has been established.
| Aug 11, 2010
Populous selected to design 'crystalline skin' stadium for 2014 Winter Olympics
Russian officials have selected global architect Populous to design the main stadium for the 2014 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games in Sochi, Russia. The 40,000-seat stadium will feature a crystalline skin that "engages with its surroundings by day and provides an iconic representation of the color and spectacle of the games when illuminated at night," said Populous senior principal John Barrow.
| Aug 11, 2010
M&A deal volume down 67% in engineering/construction sector: PricewaterhouseCoopers
Global Economic Uncertainty Results in Sluggish Deal Activity in U.S.; China Shows Significant Opportunity for Growth
| Aug 11, 2010
Three Opus Corporation companies file for bankruptcy
Opus Corporation, a developer headquartered in Minnetonka, Minn., filed for bankruptcy in three of its five regional operating companies: Opus East, Opus South, and Opus West. CEO Mark Rauenhorst said sharp declines in commercial real estate values and tight credit markets caused difficulties in refinancing assets and restructuring lending agreements.
| Aug 11, 2010
ZweigWhite names its fastest-growing architecture, engineering, and environmental firms
Management consulting and research firm ZweigWhite has identified the 200 fastest-growing architecture, engineering, and environmental consulting firms in the U.S. and Canada for its annual ranking, The Zweig Letter Hot Firm List. This annual list features the design and environmental firms that have outperformed the economy and competitors to become industry leaders.
| Aug 11, 2010
SSOE, Fluor among nation's largest industrial building design firms
A ranking of the Top 75 Industrial Design Firms based on Building Design+Construction's 2009 Giants 300 survey. For more Giants 300 rankings, visit http://www.BDCnetwork.com/Giants
| Aug 11, 2010
Guggenheim to host live online discussion of Frank Lloyd Wright exhibition
The Solomon R. Guggenheim Museum launches the Guggenheim Forum, a new series of moderated online discussions among experts from a variety of fields that will occur in conjunction with major museum exhibitions.
