Due to the weather-related slow start in the nonresidential building market during the first part of the year, and the prolonged weakness in the institutional sector, construction spending projections for the rest of the year have been lowered slightly.
The commercial construction sector is still looking at solid spending increases throughout the remainder of 2014, paced by high levels of demand for hotels and office buildings. The American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, is projecting that spending will see a 4.9% increase in 2014 – down from the previous estimate of 5.8%, with next year’s projection holding at 8%.
VIDEO: AIA Chief Economist discusses economic trends for 3rd quarter of 2014
“The institutional market has been a drag on the overall recovery for the design and construction industry for the last few years, and until we see state and local governments ramp up spending for new education, healthcare and public safety structures there likely won’t be a widespread acceleration in spending for the entire industry,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “But we continue to have an optimistic outlook for the commercial and industrial sectors both for the rest of this year and into 2015.”
|
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2014 |
2015 |
|
|
|
|
|
Overall nonresidential building |
4.9% |
8.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
Commercial / industrial |
9.9% |
11.2% |
|
Hotels |
14.5% |
9.2% |
|
Office buildings |
12.8% |
13.3% |
|
Industrial facilities |
7.6% |
9.2% |
|
Retail |
7.4% |
10.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
Institutional |
-0.1% |
5.8% |
|
Amusement / recreation |
3.7% |
6.6% |
|
Education |
-0.1% |
5.7% |
|
Healthcare facilities |
-1.8% |
6.6% |
|
Religious |
-4.1% |
0.7% |
|
Public safety |
-4.2% |
3.3% |
Baker continued, “While there does not appear to be any structural frailties in the overall economy that could possibly derail increasing levels of construction spending over the next 18 months, lending standards at financial institutions continue to fall well short of the increasing demand for commercial real estate loans, which is another factor that serves as a wild card and a source of concern for the entire industry.”
About the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is conducted twice a year with the leading nonresidential construction forecasters in the United States including, McGraw Hill Construction, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS-Global Insight, Moody’s economy.com, Reed Business Information, Associated Builders & Contractors and FMI. The purpose of the Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is to project business conditions in the construction industry over the coming 12 to 18 months. The Consensus Construction Forecast Panel has been conducted for 15 years.
About The American Institute of Architects
Founded in 1857, members of the American Institute of Architects consistently work to create more valuable, healthy, secure, and sustainable buildings, neighborhoods, and communities. Through nearly 300 state and local chapters, the AIA advocates for public policies that promote economic vitality and public well being. Members adhere to a code of ethics and conduct to ensure the highest professional standards. The AIA provides members with tools and resources to assist them in their careers and business as well as engaging civic and government leaders, and the public to find solutions to pressing issues facing our communities, institutions, nation and world. Visit www.aia.org.
Related Stories
| Dec 20, 2010
Architect Adrian D. Smith on zero-energy cities, new technologies, and high density.
Adrian D. Smith, FAIA, RIBA, is co-founder (with Gordon Gill) of Adrian Smith + Gordon Gill Architecture, Chicago. Previously, he was a design partner in the Chicago office of Skidmore, Owings & Merrill (1980-2003) and a consulting design partner from 2004 to 2006. His landmark structures include the Jin Mao Tower (Shanghai), Rowes Wharf (Boston), and Burj Khalifa (Dubai, U.A.E.), the world’s tallest structure. He recently collaborated with Gordon Gill to design the world’s first net-zero-energy skyscraper, Pearl River Tower, now nearing completion in Guangzhou, China. This account is based on his recent remarks at the Illinois Institute of Technology.
| Dec 17, 2010
BIM Tools Enhance Project Value
The Building Team for a renovation project at Georgia Tech uses BIM and 3D design tools to solve a complex millwork problem.
| Dec 17, 2010
Historic Rhode Island hotel reborn with modern amenities
The iconic Ocean House resort in Watch Hill, R.I., had to be torn down in 2005 when systemic deficiencies made restoration unfeasible. Centerbrook Architects and Planners, Centerbrook, Conn., designed a new version of the hotel, working with preservation societies to save or recreate favorite elements of the original building, and incorporating them into the contemporary structure. The new resort has 49 guest rooms and 23 residences, plus banquet halls, a corporate boardroom, a private clubroom, a spa and fitness center, an indoor lap pool, a bar, and the obligatory international croquet court. Dimeo Construction, Providence, R.I., was the construction manager.
| Dec 17, 2010
Gemstone-inspired design earns India’s first LEED Gold for a hotel
The Park Hotel Hyderabad in Hyderabad, India, was designed by Skidmore, Owings & Merrill to combine inspirations from the region’s jewelry-making traditions with sustainable elements.
| Dec 17, 2010
Condominium and retail building offers luxury and elegance
The 58-story Austonian in Austin, Texas, is the tallest residential building in the western U.S. Benchmark Development, along with Ziegler Cooper Architects and Balfour Beatty (GC), created the 850,000-sf tower with 178 residences, retail space, a 6,000-sf fitness center, and a 10th-floor outdoor area with a 75-foot saltwater lap pool and spa, private cabanas, outdoor kitchens, and pet exercise and grooming areas.
| Dec 17, 2010
Sam Houston State arts programs expand into new performance center
Theater, music, and dance programs at Sam Houston State University have a new venue in the 101,945-sf, $38.5 million James and Nancy Gaertner Performing Arts Center. WHR Architects, Houston, designed the new center to connect two existing buildings at the Huntsville, Texas, campus.
| Dec 17, 2010
Alaskan village school gets a new home
Ayagina’ar Elitnaurvik, a new K-12 school serving the Lower Kuskikwim School District, is now open in Kongiganak, a remote Alaskan village of less than 400 residents. The 34,000-sf, 12-classroom facility replaces one that was threatened by river erosion.
| Dec 17, 2010
Luxury condos built for privacy
A new luxury condominium tower in Los Angeles, The Carlyle has 24 floors with 78 units. Each of the four units on each floor has a private elevator foyer. The top three floors house six 5,000-sf penthouses that offer residents both indoor and outdoor living space. KMD Architects designed the 310,000-sf structure, and Elad Properties was project developer.
| Dec 17, 2010
Subway entrance designed to exude Hollywood charm
The Hollywood/Vine Metro portal and public plaza in Los Angeles provides an entrance to the Red Line subway and the W Hollywood Hotel. Local architect Rios Clementi Hale Studio designed the portal and plaza to flow with the landmark theaters and plazas that surround it.
| Dec 17, 2010
New engineering building goes for net-zero energy
A new $90 million, 250,000-sf classroom and laboratory facility with a 450-seat auditorium for the College of Electrical and Computer Engineering at the University of Illinois at Urbana/Champaign is aiming for LEED Platinum.
