Due to the weather-related slow start in the nonresidential building market during the first part of the year, and the prolonged weakness in the institutional sector, construction spending projections for the rest of the year have been lowered slightly.
The commercial construction sector is still looking at solid spending increases throughout the remainder of 2014, paced by high levels of demand for hotels and office buildings. The American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, is projecting that spending will see a 4.9% increase in 2014 – down from the previous estimate of 5.8%, with next year’s projection holding at 8%.
VIDEO: AIA Chief Economist discusses economic trends for 3rd quarter of 2014
“The institutional market has been a drag on the overall recovery for the design and construction industry for the last few years, and until we see state and local governments ramp up spending for new education, healthcare and public safety structures there likely won’t be a widespread acceleration in spending for the entire industry,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “But we continue to have an optimistic outlook for the commercial and industrial sectors both for the rest of this year and into 2015.”
|
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2014 |
2015 |
|
|
|
|
|
Overall nonresidential building |
4.9% |
8.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
Commercial / industrial |
9.9% |
11.2% |
|
Hotels |
14.5% |
9.2% |
|
Office buildings |
12.8% |
13.3% |
|
Industrial facilities |
7.6% |
9.2% |
|
Retail |
7.4% |
10.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
Institutional |
-0.1% |
5.8% |
|
Amusement / recreation |
3.7% |
6.6% |
|
Education |
-0.1% |
5.7% |
|
Healthcare facilities |
-1.8% |
6.6% |
|
Religious |
-4.1% |
0.7% |
|
Public safety |
-4.2% |
3.3% |
Baker continued, “While there does not appear to be any structural frailties in the overall economy that could possibly derail increasing levels of construction spending over the next 18 months, lending standards at financial institutions continue to fall well short of the increasing demand for commercial real estate loans, which is another factor that serves as a wild card and a source of concern for the entire industry.”
About the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is conducted twice a year with the leading nonresidential construction forecasters in the United States including, McGraw Hill Construction, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS-Global Insight, Moody’s economy.com, Reed Business Information, Associated Builders & Contractors and FMI. The purpose of the Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is to project business conditions in the construction industry over the coming 12 to 18 months. The Consensus Construction Forecast Panel has been conducted for 15 years.
About The American Institute of Architects
Founded in 1857, members of the American Institute of Architects consistently work to create more valuable, healthy, secure, and sustainable buildings, neighborhoods, and communities. Through nearly 300 state and local chapters, the AIA advocates for public policies that promote economic vitality and public well being. Members adhere to a code of ethics and conduct to ensure the highest professional standards. The AIA provides members with tools and resources to assist them in their careers and business as well as engaging civic and government leaders, and the public to find solutions to pressing issues facing our communities, institutions, nation and world. Visit www.aia.org.
Related Stories
| Feb 9, 2011
Businesses make bigger, bolder sustainability commitments
In 2010, U.S. corporations continued to enhance their sustainable business efforts by making bigger, bolder, longer-term sustainability commitments. GreenBiz issued its 4th annual State of Green Business report, a free downloadable report that measures the progress of U.S. business and the economy from an environmental perspective, and highlights key trends in corporate culture in regard to the environment.
| Feb 8, 2011
AIA names 104 members to College of Fellows
The Fellowship program was developed to elevate those architects who have made a significant contribution to architecture and society and who have achieved a standard of excellence in the profession. Election to fellowship not only recognizes the achievements of architects as individuals, but also their significant contribution to architecture and society on a national level.
| Feb 4, 2011
President Obama: 20% improvement in energy efficiency will save $40 billion
President Obama’s Better Buildings Initiative, announced February 3, 2011, aims to achieve a 20% improvement in energy efficiency in commercial buildings by 2020, improvements that will save American businesses $40 billion a year.
| Jan 31, 2011
Cuningham Group Architecture launches Healthcare studio with Lee Brennan
International design firm Cuningham Group Architecture, P.A. (Cuningham Group) has announced the arrival of Lee Brennan, AIA, as Principal and Leader of its new Healthcare studio. Brennan comes to Cuningham Group with over 30 years of professional experience, 22 of those years in healthcare, encompassing all aspects of project delivery, from strategic planning and programming through design and construction. The firm’s new Healthcare studio will enhance Cuningham Group’s expertise in leisure and entertainment, education, mixed-use/housing and workplace environments.
| Jan 31, 2011
HDR Architecture Releases Evidence-based Design Videos
As a follow-up to its book Evidence-based Design for Healthcare Facilities, HDR Architecture, Inc. has released three video case studies that highlight evidence-based design principles in action.
| Jan 31, 2011
CISCA releases White Paper on Acoustics in Healthcare Environments
The Ceilings & Interior Systems Construction Association (CISCA) has released an extensive white paper “Acoustics in Healthcare Environments” for architects, interior designers, and other design professionals who work to improve healthcare settings for all users. This white paper serves as a comprehensive introduction to the acoustical issues commonly confronted on healthcare projects and howbest to address those.
| Jan 28, 2011
Firestone Building Products Unveils FirestoneRoof Mobile Web App
Firestone Building Products Company unveiled FirestoneRoof, a first-of-its-kind free mobile web app. The FirestoneRoof mobile web app enables customers to instantly connect with Firestone commercial roofing experts and is designed to make it easier for building owners, facility managers, roofing consultants and others charged with maintaining commercial roofing systems to get the support they need, when they need it.
| Jan 27, 2011
Perkins Eastman's report on senior housing signals a changing market
Top international design and architecture firm Perkins Eastman is pleased to announce that the Perkins Eastman Research Collaborative recently completed the “Design for Aging Review 10 Insights and Innovations: The State of Senior Housing” study for the American Institute of Architects (AIA). The results of the comprehensive study reflect the changing demands and emerging concepts that are re-shaping today’s senior living industry.
| Jan 25, 2011
Bloomberg launches NYC Urban Tech Innovation Center
To promote the development and commercialization of green building technologies in New York City, Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg has launched the NYC Urban Technology Innovation Center. This initiative will connect academic institutions conducting underlying research, companies creating the associated products, and building owners who will use those technologies.
