Due to the weather-related slow start in the nonresidential building market during the first part of the year, and the prolonged weakness in the institutional sector, construction spending projections for the rest of the year have been lowered slightly.
The commercial construction sector is still looking at solid spending increases throughout the remainder of 2014, paced by high levels of demand for hotels and office buildings. The American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, is projecting that spending will see a 4.9% increase in 2014 – down from the previous estimate of 5.8%, with next year’s projection holding at 8%.
VIDEO: AIA Chief Economist discusses economic trends for 3rd quarter of 2014
“The institutional market has been a drag on the overall recovery for the design and construction industry for the last few years, and until we see state and local governments ramp up spending for new education, healthcare and public safety structures there likely won’t be a widespread acceleration in spending for the entire industry,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “But we continue to have an optimistic outlook for the commercial and industrial sectors both for the rest of this year and into 2015.”
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2014 |
2015 |
|
|
|
Overall nonresidential building |
4.9% |
8.0% |
|
|
|
Commercial / industrial |
9.9% |
11.2% |
Hotels |
14.5% |
9.2% |
Office buildings |
12.8% |
13.3% |
Industrial facilities |
7.6% |
9.2% |
Retail |
7.4% |
10.4% |
|
|
|
Institutional |
-0.1% |
5.8% |
Amusement / recreation |
3.7% |
6.6% |
Education |
-0.1% |
5.7% |
Healthcare facilities |
-1.8% |
6.6% |
Religious |
-4.1% |
0.7% |
Public safety |
-4.2% |
3.3% |
Baker continued, “While there does not appear to be any structural frailties in the overall economy that could possibly derail increasing levels of construction spending over the next 18 months, lending standards at financial institutions continue to fall well short of the increasing demand for commercial real estate loans, which is another factor that serves as a wild card and a source of concern for the entire industry.”
About the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is conducted twice a year with the leading nonresidential construction forecasters in the United States including, McGraw Hill Construction, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS-Global Insight, Moody’s economy.com, Reed Business Information, Associated Builders & Contractors and FMI. The purpose of the Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is to project business conditions in the construction industry over the coming 12 to 18 months. The Consensus Construction Forecast Panel has been conducted for 15 years.
About The American Institute of Architects
Founded in 1857, members of the American Institute of Architects consistently work to create more valuable, healthy, secure, and sustainable buildings, neighborhoods, and communities. Through nearly 300 state and local chapters, the AIA advocates for public policies that promote economic vitality and public well being. Members adhere to a code of ethics and conduct to ensure the highest professional standards. The AIA provides members with tools and resources to assist them in their careers and business as well as engaging civic and government leaders, and the public to find solutions to pressing issues facing our communities, institutions, nation and world. Visit www.aia.org.
Related Stories
| Mar 1, 2011
How to make rentals more attractive as the American dream evolves, adapts
Roger K. Lewis, architect and professor emeritus of architecture at the University of Maryland, writes in the Washington Post about the rising market demand for rental housing and how Building Teams can make these properties a desirable choice for consumer, not just an economically prudent and necessary one.
| Mar 1, 2011
New survey shows shifts in hospital construction projects
America’s hospitals and health systems are focusing more on renovation or expansion than new construction, according to a new survey conducted by Health Facilities Management magazine and the American Society for Healthcare Engineering (ASHE). In fact, renovation or expansion accounted for 73% of construction projects at hospitals responding to the survey.
| Mar 1, 2011
AIA selects 6 communities for long-term sustainability program
The American Institute of Architects today announced it has selected 6 communities throughout the country to receive technical assistance under the Sustainable Design Assessment Team (SDAT) program in 2011. The communities selected are Shelburne, Vt., Apple Valley, Mn., Pikes Peak Region, Co., Southwest DeKalb County, Ga., Bastrop, Tx., and Santa Rosa, Ca. The SDAT program represents a significant institutional investment by the AIA in public service work to assist communities in developing policy frameworks and long term sustainability plans.
| Feb 24, 2011
Perkins+Will designs 100 LEED Certified buildings
Perkins+Will announced the Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) certification of its 100th sustainable building, marking a key milestone for the firm and for the sustainable design industry. The Vancouver-based Dockside Green Phase Two Balance project marks the firm’s 100th LEED certified building and is tied for the highest scoring LEED building worldwide with its sister project, Dockside Green Phase One.
| Feb 24, 2011
New reports chart path to net-zero-energy commercial buildings
Two new reports from the Zero Energy Commercial Buildings Consortium (CBC) on achieving net-zero-energy use in commercial buildings say that high levels of energy efficiency are the first, largest, and most important step on the way to net-zero.
| Feb 24, 2011
Lending revives stalled projects
An influx of fresh capital into U.S. commercial real estate is bringing some long-stalled development projects back to life and launching new construction of apartments, office buildings and shopping centers, according to a Wall Street Journal article.
| Feb 23, 2011
London 2012: What Olympic Park looks like today
London 2012 released a series of aerial images that show progress at Olympic Park, including a completed roof on the stadium (where seats are already installed), tile work at the aquatic centre, and structural work complete on more than a quarter of residential projects at Olympic Village.
| Feb 23, 2011
Call for Entries: 2011 Building Team Awards, Deadline: March 25, 2011
The 14th Annual Building Team Awards recognizes newly built projects that exhibit architectural and construction excellence—and best exemplify the collaboration of the Building Team, including the owner, architect, engineer, and contractor.
| Feb 23, 2011
The library is dead, long live the library
The Society for College and University Planning asked its members to voice their thoughts on the possible death of academic libraries. And many did. The good news? It's not all bad news. A summary of their members' comments appears on the SCUP blog.
| Feb 23, 2011
Data center trends: green design, technology upgrades
While green data centers will continue to be a trend within the industry, technology is also driving infrastructure upgrades that have never been seen before, according to the 2011 Data Center Technical Market Report from Environmental Systems Design. The report also includes an overview of the national data center market, construction costs, blackouts and disaster prevention, and site selection.