Due to the weather-related slow start in the nonresidential building market during the first part of the year, and the prolonged weakness in the institutional sector, construction spending projections for the rest of the year have been lowered slightly.
The commercial construction sector is still looking at solid spending increases throughout the remainder of 2014, paced by high levels of demand for hotels and office buildings. The American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, is projecting that spending will see a 4.9% increase in 2014 – down from the previous estimate of 5.8%, with next year’s projection holding at 8%.
VIDEO: AIA Chief Economist discusses economic trends for 3rd quarter of 2014
“The institutional market has been a drag on the overall recovery for the design and construction industry for the last few years, and until we see state and local governments ramp up spending for new education, healthcare and public safety structures there likely won’t be a widespread acceleration in spending for the entire industry,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “But we continue to have an optimistic outlook for the commercial and industrial sectors both for the rest of this year and into 2015.”
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2014 |
2015 |
|
|
|
Overall nonresidential building |
4.9% |
8.0% |
|
|
|
Commercial / industrial |
9.9% |
11.2% |
Hotels |
14.5% |
9.2% |
Office buildings |
12.8% |
13.3% |
Industrial facilities |
7.6% |
9.2% |
Retail |
7.4% |
10.4% |
|
|
|
Institutional |
-0.1% |
5.8% |
Amusement / recreation |
3.7% |
6.6% |
Education |
-0.1% |
5.7% |
Healthcare facilities |
-1.8% |
6.6% |
Religious |
-4.1% |
0.7% |
Public safety |
-4.2% |
3.3% |
Baker continued, “While there does not appear to be any structural frailties in the overall economy that could possibly derail increasing levels of construction spending over the next 18 months, lending standards at financial institutions continue to fall well short of the increasing demand for commercial real estate loans, which is another factor that serves as a wild card and a source of concern for the entire industry.”
About the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is conducted twice a year with the leading nonresidential construction forecasters in the United States including, McGraw Hill Construction, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS-Global Insight, Moody’s economy.com, Reed Business Information, Associated Builders & Contractors and FMI. The purpose of the Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is to project business conditions in the construction industry over the coming 12 to 18 months. The Consensus Construction Forecast Panel has been conducted for 15 years.
About The American Institute of Architects
Founded in 1857, members of the American Institute of Architects consistently work to create more valuable, healthy, secure, and sustainable buildings, neighborhoods, and communities. Through nearly 300 state and local chapters, the AIA advocates for public policies that promote economic vitality and public well being. Members adhere to a code of ethics and conduct to ensure the highest professional standards. The AIA provides members with tools and resources to assist them in their careers and business as well as engaging civic and government leaders, and the public to find solutions to pressing issues facing our communities, institutions, nation and world. Visit www.aia.org.
Related Stories
| Jan 19, 2012
Odebrecht and Braskem bring sustainable award to U.S. university students
The Odebrecht Award for sustainable development rewards future leaders in engineering and chemistry.
| Jan 19, 2012
BOKA Powell-designed facility at Texas A&M Bryan campus
The new facility provides programs for the Texas A&M Health Science Center, the Texas Brain and Spine Institute, Mary Crowley Cancer Research Centers, and Blinn College Allied Health programs.
| Jan 17, 2012
SOM Chicago wins competition to design China's Suzhou Center
The 75-level building is designed to accommodate a complex mixed-use program including office, service apartments, hotel and retail on a 37,000 sm site.
| Jan 17, 2012
FxFowle and CO Architects form joint venture
FxFowle and CO Architects creates a dynamic alliance built on a shared dedication to collaboration in process, innovation in programming, and excellence in design.
| Jan 17, 2012
Capital Engineering joins AECOM
With 160 employees based in Taipei and Kaohsiung, CEC specializes in environmental, water, hydraulic and land development engineering consulting services for clients in Taiwan's public and private sectors.
| Jan 17, 2012
SOM launches Los Angeles design studio
Expert team to join the firm's West Coast practice, focusing on innovative urban and environmentally sustainable design in Southern California
| Jan 16, 2012
2012 40 Under 40 applications due Friday, Jan. 20
Building Design+Construction's 40 Under 40 is open to AEC professionals from around the world who are under 40 years old, as of January 1, 2012.
| Jan 16, 2012
Mid-Continent Tower wins 25 Year Award from AIA Eastern Oklahoma
Designed by Dewberry, iconic tower defines Tulsa’s skyline.
| Jan 16, 2012
Suffolk completes construction on progressive operating suite
5,700 square-foot operating suite to be test bed for next generation of imaged-guided operating techniques.
| Jan 15, 2012
Hollister Construction Services oversees interior office fit-out for Harding Loevner
The work includes constructing open space areas, new conference, trading and training rooms, along with multiple kitchenettes.