Due to the weather-related slow start in the nonresidential building market during the first part of the year, and the prolonged weakness in the institutional sector, construction spending projections for the rest of the year have been lowered slightly.
The commercial construction sector is still looking at solid spending increases throughout the remainder of 2014, paced by high levels of demand for hotels and office buildings. The American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, is projecting that spending will see a 4.9% increase in 2014 – down from the previous estimate of 5.8%, with next year’s projection holding at 8%.
VIDEO: AIA Chief Economist discusses economic trends for 3rd quarter of 2014
“The institutional market has been a drag on the overall recovery for the design and construction industry for the last few years, and until we see state and local governments ramp up spending for new education, healthcare and public safety structures there likely won’t be a widespread acceleration in spending for the entire industry,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “But we continue to have an optimistic outlook for the commercial and industrial sectors both for the rest of this year and into 2015.”
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2014 |
2015 |
|
|
|
Overall nonresidential building |
4.9% |
8.0% |
|
|
|
Commercial / industrial |
9.9% |
11.2% |
Hotels |
14.5% |
9.2% |
Office buildings |
12.8% |
13.3% |
Industrial facilities |
7.6% |
9.2% |
Retail |
7.4% |
10.4% |
|
|
|
Institutional |
-0.1% |
5.8% |
Amusement / recreation |
3.7% |
6.6% |
Education |
-0.1% |
5.7% |
Healthcare facilities |
-1.8% |
6.6% |
Religious |
-4.1% |
0.7% |
Public safety |
-4.2% |
3.3% |
Baker continued, “While there does not appear to be any structural frailties in the overall economy that could possibly derail increasing levels of construction spending over the next 18 months, lending standards at financial institutions continue to fall well short of the increasing demand for commercial real estate loans, which is another factor that serves as a wild card and a source of concern for the entire industry.”
About the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is conducted twice a year with the leading nonresidential construction forecasters in the United States including, McGraw Hill Construction, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS-Global Insight, Moody’s economy.com, Reed Business Information, Associated Builders & Contractors and FMI. The purpose of the Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is to project business conditions in the construction industry over the coming 12 to 18 months. The Consensus Construction Forecast Panel has been conducted for 15 years.
About The American Institute of Architects
Founded in 1857, members of the American Institute of Architects consistently work to create more valuable, healthy, secure, and sustainable buildings, neighborhoods, and communities. Through nearly 300 state and local chapters, the AIA advocates for public policies that promote economic vitality and public well being. Members adhere to a code of ethics and conduct to ensure the highest professional standards. The AIA provides members with tools and resources to assist them in their careers and business as well as engaging civic and government leaders, and the public to find solutions to pressing issues facing our communities, institutions, nation and world. Visit www.aia.org.
Related Stories
| Apr 17, 2012
Freese and Nichols awarded Malcolm Baldridge National Quality Award
Freese and Nichols is the only engineering and architecture firm to ever receive this recognition.
| Apr 17, 2012
Miramar College police substation in San Diego receives LEED Platinum
The police substation is the first higher education facility in San Diego County to achieve LEED Platinum Certification, the highest rating possible.
| Apr 17, 2012
Alberici receives 2012 ASA General Contractor of the Year award
Alberici has been honored by the ASA eight times in the award’s nineteen-year history--more than any other general contractor in its class.
| Apr 16, 2012
Freeland promoted to vice president at Heery International
Recently named to Building Design+Construction’s 40 Under 40 Class of 2012.
| Apr 16, 2012
University of Michigan study seeks to create efficient building design
The result, the researchers say, could be technologies capable of cutting the carbon footprint created by the huge power demands buildings place on the nation’s electrical grid.
| Apr 16, 2012
UNT lab designed to study green energy technologies completed
Lab to test energy technologies and systems in order to achieve a net-zero consumption of energy.
| Apr 16, 2012
Shawmut awarded Tag Heuer builds in Florida and Pennsylvania
Both projects are scheduled to be completed this spring.
| Apr 16, 2012
Batson-Cook breaks ground on senior living center in Brunswick, Ga.
Marks the third Benton House project constructed by Batson-Cook.
| Apr 16, 2012
Altoon + Porter Architects renamed Altoon Partners
The global practice, with offices in Los Angeles, Amsterdam, and Shanghai, specializes in retail, residential and mixed-use developments.
| Apr 16, 2012
Drake joins EYP as science and technology project executive
Drake’s more than 30 years of diversified design and project delivery experience spans a broad range of complex building types.