Due to the weather-related slow start in the nonresidential building market during the first part of the year, and the prolonged weakness in the institutional sector, construction spending projections for the rest of the year have been lowered slightly.
The commercial construction sector is still looking at solid spending increases throughout the remainder of 2014, paced by high levels of demand for hotels and office buildings. The American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, is projecting that spending will see a 4.9% increase in 2014 – down from the previous estimate of 5.8%, with next year’s projection holding at 8%.
VIDEO: AIA Chief Economist discusses economic trends for 3rd quarter of 2014
“The institutional market has been a drag on the overall recovery for the design and construction industry for the last few years, and until we see state and local governments ramp up spending for new education, healthcare and public safety structures there likely won’t be a widespread acceleration in spending for the entire industry,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “But we continue to have an optimistic outlook for the commercial and industrial sectors both for the rest of this year and into 2015.”
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2014 |
2015 |
|
|
|
Overall nonresidential building |
4.9% |
8.0% |
|
|
|
Commercial / industrial |
9.9% |
11.2% |
Hotels |
14.5% |
9.2% |
Office buildings |
12.8% |
13.3% |
Industrial facilities |
7.6% |
9.2% |
Retail |
7.4% |
10.4% |
|
|
|
Institutional |
-0.1% |
5.8% |
Amusement / recreation |
3.7% |
6.6% |
Education |
-0.1% |
5.7% |
Healthcare facilities |
-1.8% |
6.6% |
Religious |
-4.1% |
0.7% |
Public safety |
-4.2% |
3.3% |
Baker continued, “While there does not appear to be any structural frailties in the overall economy that could possibly derail increasing levels of construction spending over the next 18 months, lending standards at financial institutions continue to fall well short of the increasing demand for commercial real estate loans, which is another factor that serves as a wild card and a source of concern for the entire industry.”
About the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is conducted twice a year with the leading nonresidential construction forecasters in the United States including, McGraw Hill Construction, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS-Global Insight, Moody’s economy.com, Reed Business Information, Associated Builders & Contractors and FMI. The purpose of the Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is to project business conditions in the construction industry over the coming 12 to 18 months. The Consensus Construction Forecast Panel has been conducted for 15 years.
About The American Institute of Architects
Founded in 1857, members of the American Institute of Architects consistently work to create more valuable, healthy, secure, and sustainable buildings, neighborhoods, and communities. Through nearly 300 state and local chapters, the AIA advocates for public policies that promote economic vitality and public well being. Members adhere to a code of ethics and conduct to ensure the highest professional standards. The AIA provides members with tools and resources to assist them in their careers and business as well as engaging civic and government leaders, and the public to find solutions to pressing issues facing our communities, institutions, nation and world. Visit www.aia.org.
Related Stories
| Jul 19, 2012
BIM finally starting to pay off for AEC firms
In surveying Giants 300 firms about BIM, we went right for the jugular: Is BIM paying off—through cost savings, higher quality, or client satisfaction? Here’s what they told us.
| Jul 19, 2012
Contractors finally ‘moving off the bottom’
C and CM Agent + PM Giants 300 Firms also taking steps to improve project efficiency.
| Jul 19, 2012
The best states for a construction job
The top anticipated engineering and skilled labor shortages according to a survey of 2,223 construction industry professionals.
| Jul 19, 2012
Suffolk Construction launches subcontractor development series
Professional certificate program to provide core construction management skills to disadvantaged, minority, and women business enterprises.
| Jul 19, 2012
Construction begins on military centers to treat TBI and PTS
First two of several centers to be built in Fort Belvoir, Va. and Camp Lejeune, N.C.
| Jul 18, 2012
U.S. engineering firms set sail for foreign ports
Other E/EA Giants 300 firms are just dipping their toes into foreign waters, still looking for international business but choosing not to establish additional offices.
| Jul 18, 2012
Architecture giants spreading their wings
A/AE Giants 300 rankings reveal firms branching out globally, merging, adding services.
| Jul 18, 2012
Green expert Kats joins GreenWizard as an advisor
Kats' role is to help further expand GreenWizard’s impact in the sustainable construction industry.
| Jul 18, 2012
Construction employment stagnates in June
Lack of hiring in construction combined with job growth elsewhere threatens to create skilled-labor gap once contractors are ready to hire again.
| Jul 18, 2012
Legat & Kingscott relocates architecture/interior design office
Move enables the architecture/interior design firm to better serve its expanding clientele.