Due to the weather-related slow start in the nonresidential building market during the first part of the year, and the prolonged weakness in the institutional sector, construction spending projections for the rest of the year have been lowered slightly.
The commercial construction sector is still looking at solid spending increases throughout the remainder of 2014, paced by high levels of demand for hotels and office buildings. The American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, is projecting that spending will see a 4.9% increase in 2014 – down from the previous estimate of 5.8%, with next year’s projection holding at 8%.
VIDEO: AIA Chief Economist discusses economic trends for 3rd quarter of 2014
“The institutional market has been a drag on the overall recovery for the design and construction industry for the last few years, and until we see state and local governments ramp up spending for new education, healthcare and public safety structures there likely won’t be a widespread acceleration in spending for the entire industry,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “But we continue to have an optimistic outlook for the commercial and industrial sectors both for the rest of this year and into 2015.”
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2014 |
2015 |
|
|
|
Overall nonresidential building |
4.9% |
8.0% |
|
|
|
Commercial / industrial |
9.9% |
11.2% |
Hotels |
14.5% |
9.2% |
Office buildings |
12.8% |
13.3% |
Industrial facilities |
7.6% |
9.2% |
Retail |
7.4% |
10.4% |
|
|
|
Institutional |
-0.1% |
5.8% |
Amusement / recreation |
3.7% |
6.6% |
Education |
-0.1% |
5.7% |
Healthcare facilities |
-1.8% |
6.6% |
Religious |
-4.1% |
0.7% |
Public safety |
-4.2% |
3.3% |
Baker continued, “While there does not appear to be any structural frailties in the overall economy that could possibly derail increasing levels of construction spending over the next 18 months, lending standards at financial institutions continue to fall well short of the increasing demand for commercial real estate loans, which is another factor that serves as a wild card and a source of concern for the entire industry.”
About the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is conducted twice a year with the leading nonresidential construction forecasters in the United States including, McGraw Hill Construction, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS-Global Insight, Moody’s economy.com, Reed Business Information, Associated Builders & Contractors and FMI. The purpose of the Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is to project business conditions in the construction industry over the coming 12 to 18 months. The Consensus Construction Forecast Panel has been conducted for 15 years.
About The American Institute of Architects
Founded in 1857, members of the American Institute of Architects consistently work to create more valuable, healthy, secure, and sustainable buildings, neighborhoods, and communities. Through nearly 300 state and local chapters, the AIA advocates for public policies that promote economic vitality and public well being. Members adhere to a code of ethics and conduct to ensure the highest professional standards. The AIA provides members with tools and resources to assist them in their careers and business as well as engaging civic and government leaders, and the public to find solutions to pressing issues facing our communities, institutions, nation and world. Visit www.aia.org.
Related Stories
| Apr 6, 2013
First look: GlaxoSmithKline's double LEED Platinum office
GlaxoSmithKline and Liberty Property Trust/Synterra Partners transform the work environment with the opening of Five Crescent Drive
| Apr 5, 2013
Bangkok gets a leaning tower, that may topple
A seven-story apartment tower under construction in Bangkok has started to tilt and is on the verge of toppling.
| Apr 5, 2013
Snøhetta design creates groundbreaking high-tech library for NCSU
The new Hunt Library at North Carolina State University, Raleigh, incorporates advanced building features, including a five-story robotic bookBot automatic retrieval system that holds 2 million volumes in reduced space.
| Apr 5, 2013
'My BIM journey' – 6 lessons from a BIM/VDC expert
Gensler's Jared Krieger offers important tips and advice for managing complex BIM/VDC-driven projects.
| Apr 5, 2013
Commercial greenhouse will top new Whole Foods store in Brooklyn
Whole Foods and partner Gotham Greens will create a 20,000-sf greenhouse atop one of the retailer's Brooklyn supermarkets. Expected to open this fall, the facility will supply produce to nine Whole Foods stores in metro New York City.
| Apr 5, 2013
Projected cost for Apple's Campus 2 balloons to $5 billion
Campus 2, Apple Inc.'s proposed ring-shaped office facility in Cupertino, Calif., could cost $5 billion to build, according to a report by Bloomberg.
| Apr 5, 2013
Extreme LEGO: Wondrous micro city built out of 200,000 blocks
Master LEGO builder Mike Doyle unveils his latest creation, an out-of-this-world micro city that celebrates peaceful alien contact.
| Apr 3, 2013
AIA CES class: Sealant repairs that last – hybrid sealants for building restoration
It is hard to talk about restoration without talking about sustainability. This two-hour interactive online course discusses the role that restoration can and does play in the arena of sustainability, and specifically the role that sealants play in sustainable design and repair.
| Apr 3, 2013
Construction spending up 20% since 2011, growth will continue, says Gilbane report
The monthly rate of construction spending is up 20% in 24 months and increased in 18 of the last 24 months, which is a good leading indicator for new construction work in Q3-Q4 2013, according to Gilbane's latest Market Conditions in Construction report.
| Apr 3, 2013
5 award-winning modular buildings
The Modular Building Institute recently revealed the winners of its annual Awards of Distinction contest. There were 42 winners in all across six categories. Here are five projects that caught our eye.