Due to the weather-related slow start in the nonresidential building market during the first part of the year, and the prolonged weakness in the institutional sector, construction spending projections for the rest of the year have been lowered slightly.
The commercial construction sector is still looking at solid spending increases throughout the remainder of 2014, paced by high levels of demand for hotels and office buildings. The American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, is projecting that spending will see a 4.9% increase in 2014 – down from the previous estimate of 5.8%, with next year’s projection holding at 8%.
VIDEO: AIA Chief Economist discusses economic trends for 3rd quarter of 2014
“The institutional market has been a drag on the overall recovery for the design and construction industry for the last few years, and until we see state and local governments ramp up spending for new education, healthcare and public safety structures there likely won’t be a widespread acceleration in spending for the entire industry,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “But we continue to have an optimistic outlook for the commercial and industrial sectors both for the rest of this year and into 2015.”
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2014 |
2015 |
|
|
|
Overall nonresidential building |
4.9% |
8.0% |
|
|
|
Commercial / industrial |
9.9% |
11.2% |
Hotels |
14.5% |
9.2% |
Office buildings |
12.8% |
13.3% |
Industrial facilities |
7.6% |
9.2% |
Retail |
7.4% |
10.4% |
|
|
|
Institutional |
-0.1% |
5.8% |
Amusement / recreation |
3.7% |
6.6% |
Education |
-0.1% |
5.7% |
Healthcare facilities |
-1.8% |
6.6% |
Religious |
-4.1% |
0.7% |
Public safety |
-4.2% |
3.3% |
Baker continued, “While there does not appear to be any structural frailties in the overall economy that could possibly derail increasing levels of construction spending over the next 18 months, lending standards at financial institutions continue to fall well short of the increasing demand for commercial real estate loans, which is another factor that serves as a wild card and a source of concern for the entire industry.”
About the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is conducted twice a year with the leading nonresidential construction forecasters in the United States including, McGraw Hill Construction, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS-Global Insight, Moody’s economy.com, Reed Business Information, Associated Builders & Contractors and FMI. The purpose of the Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is to project business conditions in the construction industry over the coming 12 to 18 months. The Consensus Construction Forecast Panel has been conducted for 15 years.
About The American Institute of Architects
Founded in 1857, members of the American Institute of Architects consistently work to create more valuable, healthy, secure, and sustainable buildings, neighborhoods, and communities. Through nearly 300 state and local chapters, the AIA advocates for public policies that promote economic vitality and public well being. Members adhere to a code of ethics and conduct to ensure the highest professional standards. The AIA provides members with tools and resources to assist them in their careers and business as well as engaging civic and government leaders, and the public to find solutions to pressing issues facing our communities, institutions, nation and world. Visit www.aia.org.
Related Stories
| Jul 8, 2013
RSMeans cost comparisons: hotels, motels, and apartment buildings
Construction market analysts from RSMeans offer construction costs per square foot for hotels, motels, and apartment buildings.
| Jul 8, 2013
Learn from the world’s fastest animal: speed isn’t everything
Every schoolchild knows that the cheetah is the world’s fastest land animal—70 mph, no sweat. And, as we all know from National Geographic television documentaries, it is speed that makes Acinonyx jubatus such a fearsome hunter, right?
| Jul 3, 2013
Mid-year special: Top 13 stories for 2013 (so far)
Every six months, we like to take a look back at the stories that generated the most interest from our readers. Here's a roundup of the top 13 articles on BDCnetwork.com for the first six months of 2013.
| Jul 3, 2013
World's biggest freestanding building opens in China
Measuring a stout 100 meters high, 500 meters long, and 400 meters wide, the New Century Global Centre in the Tianfu New District of Chengdu, China, is officially the world's largest freestanding building.
| Jul 3, 2013
Mall of America will double in size after $2.5 billion expansion
The nation's largest indoor mall will undergo a $2.5 billion, 10-year expansion project that will add attractions like an NHL-sized skating rink and an indoor water park.
| Jul 3, 2013
Architects team with HUD to promote 'Rebuild By Design' competition for Hurricane Sandy recovery effort
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) today announced a communications campaign urging its membership to enter the “Rebuild by Design” multi-stage regional design competition announced by Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Secretary Shaun Donovan on June 20.
| Jul 2, 2013
LEED v4 gets green light, will launch this fall
The U.S. Green Building Council membership has voted to adopt LEED v4, the next update to the world’s premier green building rating system.
| Jul 1, 2013
Firestone Building Products Company LLC Announces Sustainability Report
Firestone Building Products Company, LLC, the leading manufacturer of superior “Roots to Rooftops” products for commercial building performance solutions, today announced the release of its 2012 Sustainability Report. The report, the first for Firestone Building Products Company, covers the fiscal 2012 year and is available for download at firestonebpco.com.
| Jul 1, 2013
LEGOLAND builds 12-foot replica of One World Trade Center
The LEGOLAND Discovery Center Westchester in Yonkers, N.Y., celebrated the completion of a LEGO replica of One World Trade Center by lighting the 12-foot-tall, 100-pound model.
| Jul 1, 2013
Report: Global construction market to reach $15 trillion by 2025
A new report released today forecasts the volume of construction output will grow by more than 70% to $15 trillion worldwide by 2025.