Due to the weather-related slow start in the nonresidential building market during the first part of the year, and the prolonged weakness in the institutional sector, construction spending projections for the rest of the year have been lowered slightly.
The commercial construction sector is still looking at solid spending increases throughout the remainder of 2014, paced by high levels of demand for hotels and office buildings. The American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, is projecting that spending will see a 4.9% increase in 2014 – down from the previous estimate of 5.8%, with next year’s projection holding at 8%.
VIDEO: AIA Chief Economist discusses economic trends for 3rd quarter of 2014
“The institutional market has been a drag on the overall recovery for the design and construction industry for the last few years, and until we see state and local governments ramp up spending for new education, healthcare and public safety structures there likely won’t be a widespread acceleration in spending for the entire industry,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “But we continue to have an optimistic outlook for the commercial and industrial sectors both for the rest of this year and into 2015.”
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2014 |
2015 |
|
|
|
Overall nonresidential building |
4.9% |
8.0% |
|
|
|
Commercial / industrial |
9.9% |
11.2% |
Hotels |
14.5% |
9.2% |
Office buildings |
12.8% |
13.3% |
Industrial facilities |
7.6% |
9.2% |
Retail |
7.4% |
10.4% |
|
|
|
Institutional |
-0.1% |
5.8% |
Amusement / recreation |
3.7% |
6.6% |
Education |
-0.1% |
5.7% |
Healthcare facilities |
-1.8% |
6.6% |
Religious |
-4.1% |
0.7% |
Public safety |
-4.2% |
3.3% |
Baker continued, “While there does not appear to be any structural frailties in the overall economy that could possibly derail increasing levels of construction spending over the next 18 months, lending standards at financial institutions continue to fall well short of the increasing demand for commercial real estate loans, which is another factor that serves as a wild card and a source of concern for the entire industry.”
About the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is conducted twice a year with the leading nonresidential construction forecasters in the United States including, McGraw Hill Construction, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS-Global Insight, Moody’s economy.com, Reed Business Information, Associated Builders & Contractors and FMI. The purpose of the Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is to project business conditions in the construction industry over the coming 12 to 18 months. The Consensus Construction Forecast Panel has been conducted for 15 years.
About The American Institute of Architects
Founded in 1857, members of the American Institute of Architects consistently work to create more valuable, healthy, secure, and sustainable buildings, neighborhoods, and communities. Through nearly 300 state and local chapters, the AIA advocates for public policies that promote economic vitality and public well being. Members adhere to a code of ethics and conduct to ensure the highest professional standards. The AIA provides members with tools and resources to assist them in their careers and business as well as engaging civic and government leaders, and the public to find solutions to pressing issues facing our communities, institutions, nation and world. Visit www.aia.org.
Related Stories
| Jul 30, 2013
Top Healthcare Sector Architecture Firms [2013 Giants 300 Report]
HDR, HKS, Cannon top Building Design+Construction's 2013 ranking of the largest healthcare architecture and architecture/engineering firms in the U.S.
| Jul 26, 2013
HDR acquires Sharon Greene + Associates
HDR Engineering, Inc. has acquired the business and assets of Sharon Greene + Associates, a firm specializing in transportation economics and financial analysis with offices in California and Denver.
| Jul 26, 2013
How biomimicry inspired the design of the San Francisco Museum at the Mint
When the city was founded in the 19th century, the San Francisco Bay’s edge and marshland area were just a few hundred feet from where the historic Old Mint building sits today. HOK's design team suggested a design idea that incorporates lessons from the local biome while creating new ways to collect and store water.
| Jul 25, 2013
3 office design strategies for creating happy, productive workers
Office spaces that promote focus, balance, and choice are the ones that will improve employee experience, enhance performance, and drive innovation, according to Gensler's 2013 U.S. Workplace Survey.
| Jul 25, 2013
How can I help you?: The evolution of call center design
Call centers typically bring to mind an image of crowded rows of stressed-out employees who are usually receiving calls from people with a problem or placing calls to people that aren’t thrilled to hear from them. But the nature of the business is changing; telemarketing isn’t what it used to be.
| Jul 25, 2013
First look: Studio Gang's residential/dining commons for University of Chicago
The University of Chicago will build a $148 million residence hall and dining commons designed by Studio Gang Architects, tentatively slated for completion in 2016.
| Jul 25, 2013
Resilience: the hallmark of a successful practice
The key to a firm’s future success has less to do with avoiding trouble than bouncing back from it.
| Jul 25, 2013
ACEEE presents the 2013 Champions of Energy Efficiency in Industry Awards
The American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE) presented four Champion of Energy Efficiency Awards last night at its Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Industry.
| Jul 24, 2013
Architecture Billings Index dips slightly in June, but demand for design services remains positive
All building sectors are seeing an increase in demand for architectural services, according to AIA's Architecture Billings Index for June.
| Jul 23, 2013
Paul Bertram to speak at ACEEE Summer Study on Energy Efficiency
Paul Bertram, FCSI, CDT, LEED AP and director of environment and sustainability for Kingspan Insulated Panels N.A., will present a white paper during the American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy (ACEEE) 2013 Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Industry.