Due to the weather-related slow start in the nonresidential building market during the first part of the year, and the prolonged weakness in the institutional sector, construction spending projections for the rest of the year have been lowered slightly.
The commercial construction sector is still looking at solid spending increases throughout the remainder of 2014, paced by high levels of demand for hotels and office buildings. The American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, is projecting that spending will see a 4.9% increase in 2014 – down from the previous estimate of 5.8%, with next year’s projection holding at 8%.
VIDEO: AIA Chief Economist discusses economic trends for 3rd quarter of 2014
“The institutional market has been a drag on the overall recovery for the design and construction industry for the last few years, and until we see state and local governments ramp up spending for new education, healthcare and public safety structures there likely won’t be a widespread acceleration in spending for the entire industry,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “But we continue to have an optimistic outlook for the commercial and industrial sectors both for the rest of this year and into 2015.”
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2014 |
2015 |
|
|
|
Overall nonresidential building |
4.9% |
8.0% |
|
|
|
Commercial / industrial |
9.9% |
11.2% |
Hotels |
14.5% |
9.2% |
Office buildings |
12.8% |
13.3% |
Industrial facilities |
7.6% |
9.2% |
Retail |
7.4% |
10.4% |
|
|
|
Institutional |
-0.1% |
5.8% |
Amusement / recreation |
3.7% |
6.6% |
Education |
-0.1% |
5.7% |
Healthcare facilities |
-1.8% |
6.6% |
Religious |
-4.1% |
0.7% |
Public safety |
-4.2% |
3.3% |
Baker continued, “While there does not appear to be any structural frailties in the overall economy that could possibly derail increasing levels of construction spending over the next 18 months, lending standards at financial institutions continue to fall well short of the increasing demand for commercial real estate loans, which is another factor that serves as a wild card and a source of concern for the entire industry.”
About the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is conducted twice a year with the leading nonresidential construction forecasters in the United States including, McGraw Hill Construction, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS-Global Insight, Moody’s economy.com, Reed Business Information, Associated Builders & Contractors and FMI. The purpose of the Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is to project business conditions in the construction industry over the coming 12 to 18 months. The Consensus Construction Forecast Panel has been conducted for 15 years.
About The American Institute of Architects
Founded in 1857, members of the American Institute of Architects consistently work to create more valuable, healthy, secure, and sustainable buildings, neighborhoods, and communities. Through nearly 300 state and local chapters, the AIA advocates for public policies that promote economic vitality and public well being. Members adhere to a code of ethics and conduct to ensure the highest professional standards. The AIA provides members with tools and resources to assist them in their careers and business as well as engaging civic and government leaders, and the public to find solutions to pressing issues facing our communities, institutions, nation and world. Visit www.aia.org.
Related Stories
| Nov 17, 2013
Meet up with the BD+C team at Greenbuild. Drinks are on us!
To all our friends in the AEC industry, you are cordially invited to join the BD+C team at several fun events during the Greenbuild show this week. No RSVP required. Just show up and enjoy.
| Nov 15, 2013
Halls of ivy keep getting greener and greener
Academic institutions have been testing the limits of energy-conserving technologies, devising new ways to pay for sustainability extras, and extending sustainability to the whole campus.
| Nov 15, 2013
Pedia-Pod: A state-of-the-art pediatric building module
This demonstration pediatric treatment building module is “kid-friendly,” offering a unique and cheerful environment where a child can feel most comfortable.
| Nov 15, 2013
Metal makes its mark on interior spaces
Beyond its long-standing role as a preferred material for a building’s structure and roof, metal is making its mark on interior spaces as well.
| Nov 14, 2013
Fan of Frank Lloyd Wright? Here's your chance to run his architecture school
The Frank Lloyd Wright School of Architecture has launched a search for a new director. Deadline for applications is January 6, 2014.
| Nov 13, 2013
Government work keeps green AEC firms busy
With the economy picking up, many stalled government contracts are reaching completion and earning their green credentials.
| Nov 13, 2013
First look: Renzo Piano's addition to Louis Kahn's Kimbell Art Museum [slideshow]
The $135 million, 101,130-sf colonnaded pavilion by the famed architect opens later this month.
| Nov 11, 2013
4 trends driving the recovering commercial construction sector
Jones Lang LaSalle research reveals a four-point “new look” for the post-recession construction industry.
| Nov 8, 2013
Oversized healthcare: How did we get here and how do we right-size?
Healthcare facilities, especially our nation's hospitals, have steadily become larger over the past couple of decades. The growth has occurred despite stabilization, and in some markets, a decline in inpatient utilization.
| Nov 8, 2013
Can Big Data help building owners slash op-ex budgets?
Real estate services giant Jones Lang LaSalle set out to answer these questions when it partnered with Pacific Controls to develop IntelliCommand, a 24/7 real-time remote monitoring and control service for its commercial real estate owner clients.