Due to the weather-related slow start in the nonresidential building market during the first part of the year, and the prolonged weakness in the institutional sector, construction spending projections for the rest of the year have been lowered slightly.
The commercial construction sector is still looking at solid spending increases throughout the remainder of 2014, paced by high levels of demand for hotels and office buildings. The American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, is projecting that spending will see a 4.9% increase in 2014 – down from the previous estimate of 5.8%, with next year’s projection holding at 8%.
VIDEO: AIA Chief Economist discusses economic trends for 3rd quarter of 2014
“The institutional market has been a drag on the overall recovery for the design and construction industry for the last few years, and until we see state and local governments ramp up spending for new education, healthcare and public safety structures there likely won’t be a widespread acceleration in spending for the entire industry,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “But we continue to have an optimistic outlook for the commercial and industrial sectors both for the rest of this year and into 2015.”
|
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2014 |
2015 |
|
|
|
|
|
Overall nonresidential building |
4.9% |
8.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
Commercial / industrial |
9.9% |
11.2% |
|
Hotels |
14.5% |
9.2% |
|
Office buildings |
12.8% |
13.3% |
|
Industrial facilities |
7.6% |
9.2% |
|
Retail |
7.4% |
10.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
Institutional |
-0.1% |
5.8% |
|
Amusement / recreation |
3.7% |
6.6% |
|
Education |
-0.1% |
5.7% |
|
Healthcare facilities |
-1.8% |
6.6% |
|
Religious |
-4.1% |
0.7% |
|
Public safety |
-4.2% |
3.3% |
Baker continued, “While there does not appear to be any structural frailties in the overall economy that could possibly derail increasing levels of construction spending over the next 18 months, lending standards at financial institutions continue to fall well short of the increasing demand for commercial real estate loans, which is another factor that serves as a wild card and a source of concern for the entire industry.”
About the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is conducted twice a year with the leading nonresidential construction forecasters in the United States including, McGraw Hill Construction, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS-Global Insight, Moody’s economy.com, Reed Business Information, Associated Builders & Contractors and FMI. The purpose of the Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is to project business conditions in the construction industry over the coming 12 to 18 months. The Consensus Construction Forecast Panel has been conducted for 15 years.
About The American Institute of Architects
Founded in 1857, members of the American Institute of Architects consistently work to create more valuable, healthy, secure, and sustainable buildings, neighborhoods, and communities. Through nearly 300 state and local chapters, the AIA advocates for public policies that promote economic vitality and public well being. Members adhere to a code of ethics and conduct to ensure the highest professional standards. The AIA provides members with tools and resources to assist them in their careers and business as well as engaging civic and government leaders, and the public to find solutions to pressing issues facing our communities, institutions, nation and world. Visit www.aia.org.
Related Stories
| Mar 24, 2014
Shigeru Ban receives 2014 Pritzker Architecture Prize
Shigeru Ban, a Tokyo-born, 56-year-old architect with offices in Tokyo, Paris, and New York, is rare in the field of architecture. He designs elegant, innovative work for private clients, and uses the same inventive and resourceful design approach for his extensive humanitarian efforts.
| Mar 24, 2014
Snøhetta unveils plans for serpentine mountain hotel
The winding hotel and apartment building will be built between the mountains and the sea in remote Glåpen, Norway.
| Mar 24, 2014
Frank Lloyd Wright's S.C. Johnson Research Tower to open to the public—32 years after closing
The 14-story tower, one of only two Wright-designed high-rises to be built, has been off limits to the public since its construction in 1950.
Sponsored | | Mar 21, 2014
Kameleon Color paint creates color-changing, iridescent exterior for Exploration Tower at Port Canaveral
Linetec finishes Firestone’s UNA-CLAD panels, achieving a one-of-a-kind, dynamic appearance with the first use of Valspar’s new Kameleon Color
| Mar 21, 2014
Forget wood skyscrapers - Check out these stunning bamboo high-rise concepts [slideshow]
The Singapore Bamboo Skyscraper competition invited design teams to explore the possibilities of using bamboo as the dominant material in a high-rise project for the Singapore skyline.
| Mar 21, 2014
Pier Carlo Bontempi to receive Richard H. Driehaus Prize from Notre Dame
Established in 2003 by the Notre Dame School of Architecture, the $200,000 Richard H. Driehaus Prize is awarded to a living architect whose work embodies the highest ideals of traditional and classical architecture in contemporary society, and creates a positive cultural, environmental and artistic impact.
| Mar 21, 2014
How to get more referrals
If you’re having a hard time attracting new referrals, here are a few techniques for increasing the number of interactions with potential clients.
| Mar 20, 2014
Common EIFS failures, and how to prevent them
Poor workmanship, impact damage, building movement, and incompatible or unsound substrate are among the major culprits of EIFS problems.
| Mar 20, 2014
D.C. breaks ground on $2B mega waterfront development [slideshow]
When complete, the Wharf will feature approximately 3 million sf of new residential, office, hotel, retail, cultural, and public uses, including waterfront parks, promenades, piers, and docks.
| Mar 20, 2014
13 dazzling wood building designs [slideshow]
From bold structural glulam designs to striking textured wall and ceiling schemes, these award-winning building projects showcase the design possibilities using wood.
