Due to the weather-related slow start in the nonresidential building market during the first part of the year, and the prolonged weakness in the institutional sector, construction spending projections for the rest of the year have been lowered slightly.
The commercial construction sector is still looking at solid spending increases throughout the remainder of 2014, paced by high levels of demand for hotels and office buildings. The American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, is projecting that spending will see a 4.9% increase in 2014 – down from the previous estimate of 5.8%, with next year’s projection holding at 8%.
VIDEO: AIA Chief Economist discusses economic trends for 3rd quarter of 2014
“The institutional market has been a drag on the overall recovery for the design and construction industry for the last few years, and until we see state and local governments ramp up spending for new education, healthcare and public safety structures there likely won’t be a widespread acceleration in spending for the entire industry,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “But we continue to have an optimistic outlook for the commercial and industrial sectors both for the rest of this year and into 2015.”
|
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2014 |
2015 |
|
|
|
|
|
Overall nonresidential building |
4.9% |
8.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
Commercial / industrial |
9.9% |
11.2% |
|
Hotels |
14.5% |
9.2% |
|
Office buildings |
12.8% |
13.3% |
|
Industrial facilities |
7.6% |
9.2% |
|
Retail |
7.4% |
10.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
Institutional |
-0.1% |
5.8% |
|
Amusement / recreation |
3.7% |
6.6% |
|
Education |
-0.1% |
5.7% |
|
Healthcare facilities |
-1.8% |
6.6% |
|
Religious |
-4.1% |
0.7% |
|
Public safety |
-4.2% |
3.3% |
Baker continued, “While there does not appear to be any structural frailties in the overall economy that could possibly derail increasing levels of construction spending over the next 18 months, lending standards at financial institutions continue to fall well short of the increasing demand for commercial real estate loans, which is another factor that serves as a wild card and a source of concern for the entire industry.”
About the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is conducted twice a year with the leading nonresidential construction forecasters in the United States including, McGraw Hill Construction, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS-Global Insight, Moody’s economy.com, Reed Business Information, Associated Builders & Contractors and FMI. The purpose of the Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is to project business conditions in the construction industry over the coming 12 to 18 months. The Consensus Construction Forecast Panel has been conducted for 15 years.
About The American Institute of Architects
Founded in 1857, members of the American Institute of Architects consistently work to create more valuable, healthy, secure, and sustainable buildings, neighborhoods, and communities. Through nearly 300 state and local chapters, the AIA advocates for public policies that promote economic vitality and public well being. Members adhere to a code of ethics and conduct to ensure the highest professional standards. The AIA provides members with tools and resources to assist them in their careers and business as well as engaging civic and government leaders, and the public to find solutions to pressing issues facing our communities, institutions, nation and world. Visit www.aia.org.
Related Stories
Sponsored | | Aug 8, 2014
Setting guidelines for construction PDF documents across the AEC industry
Sasha Reed interviews two members of the coalition responsible for creating new Guidelines for Construction PDF Documents. SPONSORED CONTENT
Sponsored | | Aug 8, 2014
Safe and secure: Fire and security glazing solution for Plaquemines Parish Detention Center
When the designers at L. R. Kimball looked for an all-in-one clear, wire-free glazing solution that protects against fire, bullets and forced entry for the new Plaquemines Parish Detention Center, SAFTI FIRST supplied a complete single-source tested and listed assembly that was easy to install and maintenance-free.
| Aug 7, 2014
Office Sector Giants: ‘Flex’ reigns supreme in hot office construction market [2014 BD+C Giants 300 Report]
The adage “doing more with less” has become a byword for many businesses since the Great Recession, and clients are trying to maximize every precious inch, according to BD+C's 2014 Giants 300 Report.
| Aug 6, 2014
BIG reinvents the zoo with its 'Zootopia' natural habitat concept [slideshow]
Bjarke Ingels’ firm is looking to improve the 1960s-designed Givskund Zoo in Denmark by giving the animals a freer range to roam.
| Aug 6, 2014
The Dead Prize: A new award to recognize poorly designed buildings
If the film industry has its Razzie awards, architecture will have its Dead Prize, created by Architecture for Humanity co-founder Cameron Sinclair to recognize projects that actively harm the planet.
| Aug 6, 2014
25 projects win awards for design-build excellence
The 2014 Design-Build Project/Team Awards showcase design-build best practices and celebrate the achievements of owners and design-build teams in nine categories across the spectrum of horizontal and vertical construction.
| Aug 6, 2014
Multifamily Sector Giants: Younger consumers, Sunbelt renaissance energize multifamily housing [2014 Giants 300 Report]
Multifamily housing construction is expected to remain relatively strong throughout 2014. Starts picked up in 2013, with completions due to catch up this year, finally approaching pre-recession levels, according to BD+C's 2014 Giants 300 Report.
| Aug 5, 2014
Risk scanning: A new tool for managing healthcare facilities
Using well-known risk analytics applied to pre-existing facility data, risk scanning can provide a much richer view of facility condition more consistent with actual management decision making.
| Aug 5, 2014
Shigeru Ban-designed Aspen Art Museum will open doors to public this week
After 18 month of planning and construction, the museum will open its new Shigeru Ban-designed facility to the public on August 9.
| Aug 5, 2014
Will driverless cars kill the parking structure?
A report from Deloitte highlighted how driverless cars could dramatically alter car ownership in the future, pushing the pendulum from ownership to rentals and ride sharing.
