Due to the weather-related slow start in the nonresidential building market during the first part of the year, and the prolonged weakness in the institutional sector, construction spending projections for the rest of the year have been lowered slightly.
The commercial construction sector is still looking at solid spending increases throughout the remainder of 2014, paced by high levels of demand for hotels and office buildings. The American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, is projecting that spending will see a 4.9% increase in 2014 – down from the previous estimate of 5.8%, with next year’s projection holding at 8%.
VIDEO: AIA Chief Economist discusses economic trends for 3rd quarter of 2014
“The institutional market has been a drag on the overall recovery for the design and construction industry for the last few years, and until we see state and local governments ramp up spending for new education, healthcare and public safety structures there likely won’t be a widespread acceleration in spending for the entire industry,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “But we continue to have an optimistic outlook for the commercial and industrial sectors both for the rest of this year and into 2015.”
|
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2014 |
2015 |
|
|
|
|
|
Overall nonresidential building |
4.9% |
8.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
Commercial / industrial |
9.9% |
11.2% |
|
Hotels |
14.5% |
9.2% |
|
Office buildings |
12.8% |
13.3% |
|
Industrial facilities |
7.6% |
9.2% |
|
Retail |
7.4% |
10.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
Institutional |
-0.1% |
5.8% |
|
Amusement / recreation |
3.7% |
6.6% |
|
Education |
-0.1% |
5.7% |
|
Healthcare facilities |
-1.8% |
6.6% |
|
Religious |
-4.1% |
0.7% |
|
Public safety |
-4.2% |
3.3% |
Baker continued, “While there does not appear to be any structural frailties in the overall economy that could possibly derail increasing levels of construction spending over the next 18 months, lending standards at financial institutions continue to fall well short of the increasing demand for commercial real estate loans, which is another factor that serves as a wild card and a source of concern for the entire industry.”
About the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is conducted twice a year with the leading nonresidential construction forecasters in the United States including, McGraw Hill Construction, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS-Global Insight, Moody’s economy.com, Reed Business Information, Associated Builders & Contractors and FMI. The purpose of the Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is to project business conditions in the construction industry over the coming 12 to 18 months. The Consensus Construction Forecast Panel has been conducted for 15 years.
About The American Institute of Architects
Founded in 1857, members of the American Institute of Architects consistently work to create more valuable, healthy, secure, and sustainable buildings, neighborhoods, and communities. Through nearly 300 state and local chapters, the AIA advocates for public policies that promote economic vitality and public well being. Members adhere to a code of ethics and conduct to ensure the highest professional standards. The AIA provides members with tools and resources to assist them in their careers and business as well as engaging civic and government leaders, and the public to find solutions to pressing issues facing our communities, institutions, nation and world. Visit www.aia.org.
Related Stories
| Sep 18, 2014
Final designs unveiled for DC's first elevated park
OMA, Höweler + Yoon, NEXT Architects, and Cooper, Robertson & Partners have just released their preliminary design proposals for what will be known as the 11th Street Bridge Park.
| Sep 17, 2014
Arquitectonica's hairpin-shaped tower breaks ground in Miami
Rising above Biscayne Bay, the 305-meter tower will include three viewing decks, a restaurant, nightclub, and exhibition space.
| Sep 17, 2014
Atlanta Braves break ground on mixed-use ballpark development
SunTrust Park will be constructed by American Builders 2017, a joint venture between Brasfield & Gorrie, Mortenson Construction, Barton Malow Company, and New South Construction.
| Sep 17, 2014
The doctor is in: New consortium to fund research of design's influence on public health
The AIA Design & Health Research Consortium has organized its design and health initiative around six evidence-based approaches.
| Sep 17, 2014
New developments in data center design
From the dozen or so facilities housing Google’s 900,000 servers to the sprawling server farms of Facebook to Amazon’s seven sites scattered around the world, today’s data centers must accommodate massive power demand, high heat loads, strict maintenance protocols, and super-tight security. This AIA Discovery course is worth 1.0 AIA CES HSW learning units.
| Sep 17, 2014
New hub on campus: Where learning is headed and what it means for the college campus
It seems that the most recent buildings to pop up on college campuses are trying to do more than just support academics. They are acting as hubs for all sorts of on-campus activities, writes Gensler's David Broz.
Sponsored | | Sep 17, 2014
The balance between innovation and standardization – How DPR Construction achieves both
How does DPR strike a balance between standardization and innovation? In today’s Digital COM video Blog, Sasha Reed interviews Nathan Wood, Innovator with DPR Construction, to learn more about their successful approach to fueling innovation. SPONSORED CONTENT
| Sep 16, 2014
Ranked: Top hotel sector AEC firms [2014 Giants 300 Report]
Tutor Perini, Gensler, and AECOM top BD+C's rankings of design and construction firms with the most revenue from hospitality sector projects, as reported in the 2014 Giants 300 Report.
| Sep 16, 2014
Studies reveal growing demand for LEED-credentialed professionals across building sector
The study showed that demand for the LEED Accredited Professional and LEED Green Associate credentials grew 46 percent over a 12-month period.
| Sep 16, 2014
Shigeru Ban’s design wins Tainan Museum of Fine Arts competition
Pritzker Prize-winning architect Shigeru Ban has won an international competition organized by The Tainan Museum of Art in Taiwan. Ban's design features cascading volumes with an auditorium, classrooms, and exhibition galleries.
