Due to the weather-related slow start in the nonresidential building market during the first part of the year, and the prolonged weakness in the institutional sector, construction spending projections for the rest of the year have been lowered slightly.
The commercial construction sector is still looking at solid spending increases throughout the remainder of 2014, paced by high levels of demand for hotels and office buildings. The American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, is projecting that spending will see a 4.9% increase in 2014 – down from the previous estimate of 5.8%, with next year’s projection holding at 8%.
VIDEO: AIA Chief Economist discusses economic trends for 3rd quarter of 2014
“The institutional market has been a drag on the overall recovery for the design and construction industry for the last few years, and until we see state and local governments ramp up spending for new education, healthcare and public safety structures there likely won’t be a widespread acceleration in spending for the entire industry,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “But we continue to have an optimistic outlook for the commercial and industrial sectors both for the rest of this year and into 2015.”
|
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2014 |
2015 |
|
|
|
|
|
Overall nonresidential building |
4.9% |
8.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
Commercial / industrial |
9.9% |
11.2% |
|
Hotels |
14.5% |
9.2% |
|
Office buildings |
12.8% |
13.3% |
|
Industrial facilities |
7.6% |
9.2% |
|
Retail |
7.4% |
10.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
Institutional |
-0.1% |
5.8% |
|
Amusement / recreation |
3.7% |
6.6% |
|
Education |
-0.1% |
5.7% |
|
Healthcare facilities |
-1.8% |
6.6% |
|
Religious |
-4.1% |
0.7% |
|
Public safety |
-4.2% |
3.3% |
Baker continued, “While there does not appear to be any structural frailties in the overall economy that could possibly derail increasing levels of construction spending over the next 18 months, lending standards at financial institutions continue to fall well short of the increasing demand for commercial real estate loans, which is another factor that serves as a wild card and a source of concern for the entire industry.”
About the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is conducted twice a year with the leading nonresidential construction forecasters in the United States including, McGraw Hill Construction, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS-Global Insight, Moody’s economy.com, Reed Business Information, Associated Builders & Contractors and FMI. The purpose of the Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is to project business conditions in the construction industry over the coming 12 to 18 months. The Consensus Construction Forecast Panel has been conducted for 15 years.
About The American Institute of Architects
Founded in 1857, members of the American Institute of Architects consistently work to create more valuable, healthy, secure, and sustainable buildings, neighborhoods, and communities. Through nearly 300 state and local chapters, the AIA advocates for public policies that promote economic vitality and public well being. Members adhere to a code of ethics and conduct to ensure the highest professional standards. The AIA provides members with tools and resources to assist them in their careers and business as well as engaging civic and government leaders, and the public to find solutions to pressing issues facing our communities, institutions, nation and world. Visit www.aia.org.
Related Stories
| Oct 30, 2014
CannonDesign releases guide for specifying flooring in healthcare settings
The new report, "Flooring Applications in Healthcare Settings," compares and contrasts different flooring types in the context of parameters such as health and safety impact, design and operational issues, environmental considerations, economics, and product options.
| Oct 30, 2014
Perkins Eastman and Lee, Burkhart, Liu to merge practices
The merger will significantly build upon the established practices—particularly healthcare—of both firms and diversify their combined expertise, particularly on the West Coast.
| Oct 29, 2014
Better guidance for appraising green buildings is steadily emerging
The Appraisal Foundation is striving to improve appraisers’ understanding of green valuation.
| Oct 29, 2014
Increasing number of design projects meeting carbon reduction targets, says AIA report
Of the 2,464 projects accounted for in AIA's 2030 Commitment 2013 Progress Report, 401 are meeting the 60% carbon reduction target—a 200% increase from 2012.
Sponsored | | Oct 29, 2014
What’s the difference between your building’s coating chalking and fading?
While the reasons for chalk and fade are different, both occurrences are something to watch for. SPONSORED CONTENT
Sponsored | | Oct 29, 2014
Historic Washington elementary school incorporates modular design
More and more architects and designers are leveraging modern modular building techniques for expansion projects planned on historical sites. SPONSORED CONTENT
| Oct 29, 2014
Diller Scofidio + Renfro selected to design Olympic Museum in Colorado Springs
The museum is slated for an early 2018 completion, and will include a hall of fame, theater, retail space, and a 20,000-sf hall that will showcase the history of the Olympics and Paralympics.
Smart Buildings | Oct 29, 2014
SCAPE’s 'living breakwaters' resiliency development wins 2014 Buckminster Fuller Challenge
New York-based landscape architecture firm SCAPE won the Buckminster Fuller Institute’s 2014 Fuller Challenge, billed as socially responsible design’s highest award.
| Oct 28, 2014
4 keys to mastering 'design thinking' and the iteration process
When using design thinking and iteration, we’ll sometimes spend multiple days iterating idea after idea, heads down, only to realize we still don’t have it right, writes HDR's Amy Lussetto. She offers tips for success with these idea-nurturing tools.
| Oct 28, 2014
Miami accepts more modest plan to renovate its convention center
The city of Miami has awarded an $11 million contract for its on-again, off-again convention center renovation to Denver-based Fentress Architects, which will serve as the design criteria professional on this project.
