Due to the weather-related slow start in the nonresidential building market during the first part of the year, and the prolonged weakness in the institutional sector, construction spending projections for the rest of the year have been lowered slightly.
The commercial construction sector is still looking at solid spending increases throughout the remainder of 2014, paced by high levels of demand for hotels and office buildings. The American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, is projecting that spending will see a 4.9% increase in 2014 – down from the previous estimate of 5.8%, with next year’s projection holding at 8%.
VIDEO: AIA Chief Economist discusses economic trends for 3rd quarter of 2014
“The institutional market has been a drag on the overall recovery for the design and construction industry for the last few years, and until we see state and local governments ramp up spending for new education, healthcare and public safety structures there likely won’t be a widespread acceleration in spending for the entire industry,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “But we continue to have an optimistic outlook for the commercial and industrial sectors both for the rest of this year and into 2015.”
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2014 |
2015 |
|
|
|
Overall nonresidential building |
4.9% |
8.0% |
|
|
|
Commercial / industrial |
9.9% |
11.2% |
Hotels |
14.5% |
9.2% |
Office buildings |
12.8% |
13.3% |
Industrial facilities |
7.6% |
9.2% |
Retail |
7.4% |
10.4% |
|
|
|
Institutional |
-0.1% |
5.8% |
Amusement / recreation |
3.7% |
6.6% |
Education |
-0.1% |
5.7% |
Healthcare facilities |
-1.8% |
6.6% |
Religious |
-4.1% |
0.7% |
Public safety |
-4.2% |
3.3% |
Baker continued, “While there does not appear to be any structural frailties in the overall economy that could possibly derail increasing levels of construction spending over the next 18 months, lending standards at financial institutions continue to fall well short of the increasing demand for commercial real estate loans, which is another factor that serves as a wild card and a source of concern for the entire industry.”
About the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is conducted twice a year with the leading nonresidential construction forecasters in the United States including, McGraw Hill Construction, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS-Global Insight, Moody’s economy.com, Reed Business Information, Associated Builders & Contractors and FMI. The purpose of the Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is to project business conditions in the construction industry over the coming 12 to 18 months. The Consensus Construction Forecast Panel has been conducted for 15 years.
About The American Institute of Architects
Founded in 1857, members of the American Institute of Architects consistently work to create more valuable, healthy, secure, and sustainable buildings, neighborhoods, and communities. Through nearly 300 state and local chapters, the AIA advocates for public policies that promote economic vitality and public well being. Members adhere to a code of ethics and conduct to ensure the highest professional standards. The AIA provides members with tools and resources to assist them in their careers and business as well as engaging civic and government leaders, and the public to find solutions to pressing issues facing our communities, institutions, nation and world. Visit www.aia.org.
Related Stories
Office Buildings | Sep 2, 2016
Eight-story digital installation added as part of ESI Design’s renovation of Denver’s Wells Fargo Center
The crown jewel of a three-year makeover project, the LED columns bring the building’s lobby to life.
| Sep 1, 2016
TRANSIT GIANTS: A ranking of the nation's top transit sector design and construction firms
Skidmore, Owings & Merrill, Perkins+Will, Skanska USA, Webcor Builders, Jacobs, and STV top Building Design+Construction’s annual ranking of the nation’s largest transit sector AEC firms, as reported in the 2016 Giants 300 Report.
| Sep 1, 2016
INDUSTRIAL GIANTS: A ranking of the nation's top industrial design and construction firms
Stantec, BRPH, Fluor Corp., Walbridge, Jacobs, and AECOM top Building Design+Construction’s annual ranking of the nation’s largest industrial sector AEC firms, as reported in the 2016 Giants 300 Report.
| Sep 1, 2016
HOTEL SECTOR GIANTS: A ranking of the nation's top hotel sector design and construction firms
Gensler, HKS, Turner Construction Co., The Whiting-Turner Contracting Co., Jacobs, and JBA Consulting Engineers top Building Design+Construction’s annual ranking of the nation’s largest hotel sector AEC firms, as reported in the 2016 Giants 300 Report.
| Sep 1, 2016
CULTURAL SECTOR GIANTS: A ranking of the nation's top cultural sector design and construction firms
Gensler, Perkins+Will, PCL Construction Enterprises, Turner Construction Co., AECOM, and WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff top Building Design+Construction’s annual ranking of the nation’s largest cultural sector AEC firms, as reported in the 2016 Giants 300 Report.
| Sep 1, 2016
COURTHOUSE GIANTS: A ranking of the nation's top courthouse design and construction firms
DLR Group, NBBJ, Hensel Phelps, Sundt Construction, AECOM, and Dewberry top Building Design+Construction’s annual ranking of the nation’s largest courthouse sector AEC firms, as reported in the 2016 Giants 300 Report.
Airports | Aug 31, 2016
Aircraft manufacturing facility innovation from The Austin Company
Austin’s many innovations contributed to the success of our clients by enabling them to operate in more efficient environments, optimize the flexibility of their operations, and meet aggressive schedules.
| Aug 30, 2016
CONVENTION CENTER GIANTS: A ranking of the nation's top convention center sector design and construction firms
Gensler, LMN Architects, AECOM, Turner Construction Co., and WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff top Building Design+Construction’s annual ranking of the nation’s largest convention center sector AEC firms, as reported in the 2016 Giants 300 Report.
BIM and Information Technology | Aug 30, 2016
BIM GIANTS: A ranking of the nation's top BIM design and construction firms
HOK, Perkins+Will, Turner Construction Co., The Whiting-Turner Contracting Co., Jacobs, and Thornton Tomasetti top Building Design+Construction’s annual ranking of the nation’s largest BIM AEC firms, as reported in the 2016 Giants 300 Report.
Building Tech | Aug 26, 2016
NBBJ’s Goldilocks sensor technology can help employees find a workspace that is just right
The technology measures light levels, humidity and temperature, motion, and sound.