Due to the weather-related slow start in the nonresidential building market during the first part of the year, and the prolonged weakness in the institutional sector, construction spending projections for the rest of the year have been lowered slightly.
The commercial construction sector is still looking at solid spending increases throughout the remainder of 2014, paced by high levels of demand for hotels and office buildings. The American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, is projecting that spending will see a 4.9% increase in 2014 – down from the previous estimate of 5.8%, with next year’s projection holding at 8%.
VIDEO: AIA Chief Economist discusses economic trends for 3rd quarter of 2014
“The institutional market has been a drag on the overall recovery for the design and construction industry for the last few years, and until we see state and local governments ramp up spending for new education, healthcare and public safety structures there likely won’t be a widespread acceleration in spending for the entire industry,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “But we continue to have an optimistic outlook for the commercial and industrial sectors both for the rest of this year and into 2015.”
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2014 |
2015 |
|
|
|
Overall nonresidential building |
4.9% |
8.0% |
|
|
|
Commercial / industrial |
9.9% |
11.2% |
Hotels |
14.5% |
9.2% |
Office buildings |
12.8% |
13.3% |
Industrial facilities |
7.6% |
9.2% |
Retail |
7.4% |
10.4% |
|
|
|
Institutional |
-0.1% |
5.8% |
Amusement / recreation |
3.7% |
6.6% |
Education |
-0.1% |
5.7% |
Healthcare facilities |
-1.8% |
6.6% |
Religious |
-4.1% |
0.7% |
Public safety |
-4.2% |
3.3% |
Baker continued, “While there does not appear to be any structural frailties in the overall economy that could possibly derail increasing levels of construction spending over the next 18 months, lending standards at financial institutions continue to fall well short of the increasing demand for commercial real estate loans, which is another factor that serves as a wild card and a source of concern for the entire industry.”
About the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is conducted twice a year with the leading nonresidential construction forecasters in the United States including, McGraw Hill Construction, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS-Global Insight, Moody’s economy.com, Reed Business Information, Associated Builders & Contractors and FMI. The purpose of the Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is to project business conditions in the construction industry over the coming 12 to 18 months. The Consensus Construction Forecast Panel has been conducted for 15 years.
About The American Institute of Architects
Founded in 1857, members of the American Institute of Architects consistently work to create more valuable, healthy, secure, and sustainable buildings, neighborhoods, and communities. Through nearly 300 state and local chapters, the AIA advocates for public policies that promote economic vitality and public well being. Members adhere to a code of ethics and conduct to ensure the highest professional standards. The AIA provides members with tools and resources to assist them in their careers and business as well as engaging civic and government leaders, and the public to find solutions to pressing issues facing our communities, institutions, nation and world. Visit www.aia.org.
Related Stories
Multifamily Housing | Jul 12, 2017
Midyear Rent Report: 26 states saw rental price increases in first half of 2017
The most notable rental increases are in growing markets in the South and Southwest: New Orleans, Glendale, Ariz., Houston, Reno, N.V., and Atlanta.
Giants 400 | Jul 12, 2017
Innovation abounds, but will it lead to growth for AEC Giants?
Engineering firms such as Arup, Glumac, and Thornton Tomasetti are leveraging their in-house expertise to develop products and tools for their design teams, clients, and even the competition.
Multifamily Housing | Jul 12, 2017
7 noteworthy multifamily projects: posh amenities, healthy living, plugged-in lifestyle
Zen meditation gardens, bocce courts, saltwater pools, and free drinks highlight the niceties at these new multifamily developments.
Accelerate Live! | Jul 6, 2017
Watch all 20 Accelerate Live! talks on demand
BD+C’s inaugural AEC innovation conference, Accelerate Live! (May 11, Chicago), featured talks on machine learning, AI, gaming in construction, maker culture, and health-generating buildings.
Healthcare Facilities | Jun 29, 2017
Uniting healthcare and community
Out of the many insights that night, everyone agreed that the healthcare industry is ripe for disruption and that communities contribute immensely to our health and wellness.
Architects | Jun 25, 2017
Stantec adds RNL Design to its stable, fortifying several of its business units
The engineering giant also names successor to CEO who will retire at the end of this year.
Building Team | Jun 22, 2017
Seven lessons learned on commissioning projects
Commissioning is where the rubber meets the road in terms of building design.
Sponsored | Building Team | Jun 20, 2017
Plan ahead when building in the west
Getting a project through plan review can be an unusually long process, anywhere from six months to two years.
Architects | Jun 19, 2017
Preparing to negotiate: Get your head in the game
Logical and well-planned steps to effective negotiation.
| Jun 13, 2017
Accelerate Live! talk: Is the road to the future the path of least resistance? Sasha Reed, Bluebeam (sponsored)
Bluebeam’s Sasha Reed discusses why AEC leaders should give their teams permission to responsibly break things and create ecosystems of people, process, and technology.