Due to the weather-related slow start in the nonresidential building market during the first part of the year, and the prolonged weakness in the institutional sector, construction spending projections for the rest of the year have been lowered slightly.
The commercial construction sector is still looking at solid spending increases throughout the remainder of 2014, paced by high levels of demand for hotels and office buildings. The American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, is projecting that spending will see a 4.9% increase in 2014 – down from the previous estimate of 5.8%, with next year’s projection holding at 8%.
VIDEO: AIA Chief Economist discusses economic trends for 3rd quarter of 2014
“The institutional market has been a drag on the overall recovery for the design and construction industry for the last few years, and until we see state and local governments ramp up spending for new education, healthcare and public safety structures there likely won’t be a widespread acceleration in spending for the entire industry,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “But we continue to have an optimistic outlook for the commercial and industrial sectors both for the rest of this year and into 2015.”
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2014 |
2015 |
|
|
|
Overall nonresidential building |
4.9% |
8.0% |
|
|
|
Commercial / industrial |
9.9% |
11.2% |
Hotels |
14.5% |
9.2% |
Office buildings |
12.8% |
13.3% |
Industrial facilities |
7.6% |
9.2% |
Retail |
7.4% |
10.4% |
|
|
|
Institutional |
-0.1% |
5.8% |
Amusement / recreation |
3.7% |
6.6% |
Education |
-0.1% |
5.7% |
Healthcare facilities |
-1.8% |
6.6% |
Religious |
-4.1% |
0.7% |
Public safety |
-4.2% |
3.3% |
Baker continued, “While there does not appear to be any structural frailties in the overall economy that could possibly derail increasing levels of construction spending over the next 18 months, lending standards at financial institutions continue to fall well short of the increasing demand for commercial real estate loans, which is another factor that serves as a wild card and a source of concern for the entire industry.”
About the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is conducted twice a year with the leading nonresidential construction forecasters in the United States including, McGraw Hill Construction, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS-Global Insight, Moody’s economy.com, Reed Business Information, Associated Builders & Contractors and FMI. The purpose of the Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is to project business conditions in the construction industry over the coming 12 to 18 months. The Consensus Construction Forecast Panel has been conducted for 15 years.
About The American Institute of Architects
Founded in 1857, members of the American Institute of Architects consistently work to create more valuable, healthy, secure, and sustainable buildings, neighborhoods, and communities. Through nearly 300 state and local chapters, the AIA advocates for public policies that promote economic vitality and public well being. Members adhere to a code of ethics and conduct to ensure the highest professional standards. The AIA provides members with tools and resources to assist them in their careers and business as well as engaging civic and government leaders, and the public to find solutions to pressing issues facing our communities, institutions, nation and world. Visit www.aia.org.
Related Stories
Architects | Apr 2, 2024
AE Works announces strategic acquisition of WTW Architects
AE Works, an award-winning building design and consulting firm is excited to announce that WTW Architects, a national leader in higher education design, has joined the firm.
Office Buildings | Apr 2, 2024
SOM designs pleated façade for Star River Headquarters for optimal daylighting and views
In Guangzhou, China, Skidmore, Owings & Merrill (SOM) has designed the recently completed Star River Headquarters to minimize embodied carbon, reduce energy consumption, and create a healthy work environment. The 48-story tower is located in the business district on Guangzhou’s Pazhou Island.
K-12 Schools | Apr 1, 2024
High school includes YMCA to share facilities and connect with the broader community
In Omaha, Neb., a public high school and a YMCA come together in one facility, connecting the school with the broader community. The 285,000-sf Westview High School, programmed and designed by the team of Perkins&Will and architect of record BCDM Architects, has its own athletic facilities but shares a pool, weight room, and more with the 30,000-sf YMCA.
Market Data | Apr 1, 2024
Nonresidential construction spending dips 1.0% in February, reaches $1.179 trillion
National nonresidential construction spending declined 1.0% in February, according to an Associated Builders and Contractors analysis of data published today by the U.S. Census Bureau. On a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, nonresidential spending totaled $1.179 trillion.
Affordable Housing | Apr 1, 2024
Biden Administration considers ways to influence local housing regulations
The Biden Administration is considering how to spur more affordable housing construction with strategies to influence reform of local housing regulations.
Affordable Housing | Apr 1, 2024
Chicago voters nix ‘mansion tax’ to fund efforts to reduce homelessness
Chicago voters in March rejected a proposed “mansion tax” that would have funded efforts to reduce homelessness in the city.
Standards | Apr 1, 2024
New technical bulletin covers window opening control devices
A new technical bulletin clarifies the definition of a window opening control device (WOCD) to promote greater understanding of the role of WOCDs and provide an understanding of a WOCD’s function.
Adaptive Reuse | Mar 30, 2024
Hotel vs. office: Different challenges in commercial to residential conversions
In the midst of a national housing shortage, developers are examining the viability of commercial to residential conversions as a solution to both problems.
Sustainability | Mar 29, 2024
Demystifying carbon offsets vs direct reductions
Chris Forney, Principal, Brightworks Sustainability, and Rob Atkinson, Senior Project Manager, IA Interior Architects, share the misconceptions about carbon offsets and identify opportunities for realizing a carbon-neutral building portfolio.
Reconstruction & Renovation | Mar 28, 2024
Longwood Gardens reimagines its horticulture experience with 17-acre conservatory
Longwood Gardens announced this week that Longwood Reimagined: A New Garden Experience, the most ambitious revitalization in a century of America’s greatest center for horticultural display, will open to the public on November 22, 2024.