Due to the weather-related slow start in the nonresidential building market during the first part of the year, and the prolonged weakness in the institutional sector, construction spending projections for the rest of the year have been lowered slightly.
The commercial construction sector is still looking at solid spending increases throughout the remainder of 2014, paced by high levels of demand for hotels and office buildings. The American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, is projecting that spending will see a 4.9% increase in 2014 – down from the previous estimate of 5.8%, with next year’s projection holding at 8%.
VIDEO: AIA Chief Economist discusses economic trends for 3rd quarter of 2014
“The institutional market has been a drag on the overall recovery for the design and construction industry for the last few years, and until we see state and local governments ramp up spending for new education, healthcare and public safety structures there likely won’t be a widespread acceleration in spending for the entire industry,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “But we continue to have an optimistic outlook for the commercial and industrial sectors both for the rest of this year and into 2015.”
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2014 |
2015 |
|
|
|
Overall nonresidential building |
4.9% |
8.0% |
|
|
|
Commercial / industrial |
9.9% |
11.2% |
Hotels |
14.5% |
9.2% |
Office buildings |
12.8% |
13.3% |
Industrial facilities |
7.6% |
9.2% |
Retail |
7.4% |
10.4% |
|
|
|
Institutional |
-0.1% |
5.8% |
Amusement / recreation |
3.7% |
6.6% |
Education |
-0.1% |
5.7% |
Healthcare facilities |
-1.8% |
6.6% |
Religious |
-4.1% |
0.7% |
Public safety |
-4.2% |
3.3% |
Baker continued, “While there does not appear to be any structural frailties in the overall economy that could possibly derail increasing levels of construction spending over the next 18 months, lending standards at financial institutions continue to fall well short of the increasing demand for commercial real estate loans, which is another factor that serves as a wild card and a source of concern for the entire industry.”
About the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is conducted twice a year with the leading nonresidential construction forecasters in the United States including, McGraw Hill Construction, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS-Global Insight, Moody’s economy.com, Reed Business Information, Associated Builders & Contractors and FMI. The purpose of the Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is to project business conditions in the construction industry over the coming 12 to 18 months. The Consensus Construction Forecast Panel has been conducted for 15 years.
About The American Institute of Architects
Founded in 1857, members of the American Institute of Architects consistently work to create more valuable, healthy, secure, and sustainable buildings, neighborhoods, and communities. Through nearly 300 state and local chapters, the AIA advocates for public policies that promote economic vitality and public well being. Members adhere to a code of ethics and conduct to ensure the highest professional standards. The AIA provides members with tools and resources to assist them in their careers and business as well as engaging civic and government leaders, and the public to find solutions to pressing issues facing our communities, institutions, nation and world. Visit www.aia.org.
Related Stories
Architects | Jan 24, 2018
Danish design firm Schmidt Hammer Lassen Architects joins Perkins+Will
Partnership expands Schmidt Hammer Lassen’s capacity for international growth; complements Perkins+Will’s design philosophy and strengthens the firm’s cultural practice.
Hotel Facilities | Jan 24, 2018
U.S. hotel markets with the largest construction pipelines
Dallas, Houston, and New York lead the way, with more than 460 hotel projects in the works.
Architects | Jan 24, 2018
Strong finish for architecture billings in 2017
The Architecture Billings Index concluded the year in positive terrain, with the December reading capping off three straight months of growth in design billings.
Architects | Jan 19, 2018
CTBUH announces global finalist projects for annual awards program
The Lotte World Tower, in Seoul, and 150 N. Riverside, in Chicago, are among the finalists.
Architects | Jan 10, 2018
NELSON and FRCH Design Worldwide are merging
Their chief executives will manage the company jointly, by region.
Architects | Jan 10, 2018
7 steps to ending a low growth cycle
Here are the top 10 marketing techniques as rated by high-growth firms and how they compare to their no-growth counterparts.
Architects | Jan 8, 2018
ZGF Founding Partner Robert Frasca, 84, passes away
Frasca was a driving force in transforming the architectural firm from its early beginnings as a regional office into one of the nation’s largest practices, with 600 design professionals across six offices in the U.S. and Canada.
Architects | Jan 8, 2018
Catherine Selby joins Dattner Architects’ partners group
Selby joins Principals Paul Bauer AIA; Richard Dattner FAIA; Jeff Dugan AIA; Beth Greenberg AIA; Daniel Heuberger AIA, LEED AP; Kirsten Sibilia Assoc. AIA; William Stein FAIA; and John Woelfling AIA, LEED AP in leading the 115-person firm.
Big Data | Jan 5, 2018
In the age of data-driven design, has POE’s time finally come?
At a time when research- and data-based methods are playing a larger role in architecture, there remains a surprisingly scant amount of post-occupancy research. But that’s starting to change.