Due to the weather-related slow start in the nonresidential building market during the first part of the year, and the prolonged weakness in the institutional sector, construction spending projections for the rest of the year have been lowered slightly.
The commercial construction sector is still looking at solid spending increases throughout the remainder of 2014, paced by high levels of demand for hotels and office buildings. The American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, is projecting that spending will see a 4.9% increase in 2014 – down from the previous estimate of 5.8%, with next year’s projection holding at 8%.
VIDEO: AIA Chief Economist discusses economic trends for 3rd quarter of 2014
“The institutional market has been a drag on the overall recovery for the design and construction industry for the last few years, and until we see state and local governments ramp up spending for new education, healthcare and public safety structures there likely won’t be a widespread acceleration in spending for the entire industry,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “But we continue to have an optimistic outlook for the commercial and industrial sectors both for the rest of this year and into 2015.”
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2014 |
2015 |
|
|
|
Overall nonresidential building |
4.9% |
8.0% |
|
|
|
Commercial / industrial |
9.9% |
11.2% |
Hotels |
14.5% |
9.2% |
Office buildings |
12.8% |
13.3% |
Industrial facilities |
7.6% |
9.2% |
Retail |
7.4% |
10.4% |
|
|
|
Institutional |
-0.1% |
5.8% |
Amusement / recreation |
3.7% |
6.6% |
Education |
-0.1% |
5.7% |
Healthcare facilities |
-1.8% |
6.6% |
Religious |
-4.1% |
0.7% |
Public safety |
-4.2% |
3.3% |
Baker continued, “While there does not appear to be any structural frailties in the overall economy that could possibly derail increasing levels of construction spending over the next 18 months, lending standards at financial institutions continue to fall well short of the increasing demand for commercial real estate loans, which is another factor that serves as a wild card and a source of concern for the entire industry.”
About the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is conducted twice a year with the leading nonresidential construction forecasters in the United States including, McGraw Hill Construction, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS-Global Insight, Moody’s economy.com, Reed Business Information, Associated Builders & Contractors and FMI. The purpose of the Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is to project business conditions in the construction industry over the coming 12 to 18 months. The Consensus Construction Forecast Panel has been conducted for 15 years.
About The American Institute of Architects
Founded in 1857, members of the American Institute of Architects consistently work to create more valuable, healthy, secure, and sustainable buildings, neighborhoods, and communities. Through nearly 300 state and local chapters, the AIA advocates for public policies that promote economic vitality and public well being. Members adhere to a code of ethics and conduct to ensure the highest professional standards. The AIA provides members with tools and resources to assist them in their careers and business as well as engaging civic and government leaders, and the public to find solutions to pressing issues facing our communities, institutions, nation and world. Visit www.aia.org.
Related Stories
Multifamily Housing | Apr 22, 2021
The Weekly Show, Apr 22, 2021: COVID-19's impact on multifamily amenities
This week on The Weekly show, BD+C's Robert Cassidy speaks with three multifamily design experts about the impact of COVID-19 on apartment and condo amenities, based on the 2021 Multifamily Amenities Survey.
Adaptive Reuse | Apr 15, 2021
The Weekly Show, Apr 15, 2021: The ins and outs of adaptive reuse, and sensors for real-time construction monitoring
This week on The Weekly show, BD+C editors speak with AEC industry leaders from PBDW Architects and Wohlsen Construction about what makes adaptive reuse projects successful, and sensors for real-time monitoring of concrete construction.
Architects | Apr 14, 2021
HASTINGS elevates Sara Atherton and Derek Schmidt to Principal
Hastings Architecture promotes Sara Atherton and Derek Schmidt to Principal.
Industry Research | Apr 9, 2021
BD+C exclusive research: What building owners want from AEC firms
BD+C’s first-ever owners’ survey finds them focused on improving buildings’ performance for higher investment returns.
Architects | Apr 2, 2021
Spring Has Sprung at Construction Specialties
Introducing a slew of sensational solids, metallic finishes that cast subtle and shimmering effects, and disposable curtains to complement our exclusive fabric line.
Multifamily Housing | Mar 30, 2021
Bipartisan ‘YIMBY’ bill would provide $1.5B in grants to spur new housing
Resources for local leaders to overcome obstacles such as density-unfriendly or discriminatory zoning.
Office Buildings | Mar 26, 2021
Finding success for downtown office space after COVID-19
Using the right planning tools can spur new uses for Class B and C commercial real estate.
Architects | Mar 25, 2021
The Weekly Show, March 25, 2021: The Just Label for AEC firms, and Perkins Eastman's Well-Platinum design studio
This week on The Weekly show, BD+C editors speak with AEC industry leaders about the Just Label from the International Living Future Institute, and the features and amenities at Perkins Eastman's Well Platinum-certified design studio.
Architects | Mar 23, 2021
Design firms KTGY, Simeone Deary Design Group unite to shape future of architectural design through experiential environments
With a bold vision to reshape how people experience spaces, residential design firm joins forces with interior design group, creating fully integrated architecture, branding, interiors and planning practice.