Due to the weather-related slow start in the nonresidential building market during the first part of the year, and the prolonged weakness in the institutional sector, construction spending projections for the rest of the year have been lowered slightly.
The commercial construction sector is still looking at solid spending increases throughout the remainder of 2014, paced by high levels of demand for hotels and office buildings. The American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, is projecting that spending will see a 4.9% increase in 2014 – down from the previous estimate of 5.8%, with next year’s projection holding at 8%.
VIDEO: AIA Chief Economist discusses economic trends for 3rd quarter of 2014
“The institutional market has been a drag on the overall recovery for the design and construction industry for the last few years, and until we see state and local governments ramp up spending for new education, healthcare and public safety structures there likely won’t be a widespread acceleration in spending for the entire industry,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “But we continue to have an optimistic outlook for the commercial and industrial sectors both for the rest of this year and into 2015.”
|
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2014 |
2015 |
|
|
|
|
|
Overall nonresidential building |
4.9% |
8.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
Commercial / industrial |
9.9% |
11.2% |
|
Hotels |
14.5% |
9.2% |
|
Office buildings |
12.8% |
13.3% |
|
Industrial facilities |
7.6% |
9.2% |
|
Retail |
7.4% |
10.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
Institutional |
-0.1% |
5.8% |
|
Amusement / recreation |
3.7% |
6.6% |
|
Education |
-0.1% |
5.7% |
|
Healthcare facilities |
-1.8% |
6.6% |
|
Religious |
-4.1% |
0.7% |
|
Public safety |
-4.2% |
3.3% |
Baker continued, “While there does not appear to be any structural frailties in the overall economy that could possibly derail increasing levels of construction spending over the next 18 months, lending standards at financial institutions continue to fall well short of the increasing demand for commercial real estate loans, which is another factor that serves as a wild card and a source of concern for the entire industry.”
About the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is conducted twice a year with the leading nonresidential construction forecasters in the United States including, McGraw Hill Construction, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS-Global Insight, Moody’s economy.com, Reed Business Information, Associated Builders & Contractors and FMI. The purpose of the Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is to project business conditions in the construction industry over the coming 12 to 18 months. The Consensus Construction Forecast Panel has been conducted for 15 years.
About The American Institute of Architects
Founded in 1857, members of the American Institute of Architects consistently work to create more valuable, healthy, secure, and sustainable buildings, neighborhoods, and communities. Through nearly 300 state and local chapters, the AIA advocates for public policies that promote economic vitality and public well being. Members adhere to a code of ethics and conduct to ensure the highest professional standards. The AIA provides members with tools and resources to assist them in their careers and business as well as engaging civic and government leaders, and the public to find solutions to pressing issues facing our communities, institutions, nation and world. Visit www.aia.org.
Related Stories
| Feb 24, 2022
Signs of ‘Antiwork’ appear in the architecture industry
Reddit's r/Antiwork forum highlights the mounting pressures everyday workers face in a purely capitalistic society. AEC industry professionals are not immune to these pressures.
Office Buildings | Feb 23, 2022
The Beam on Farmer, Arizona’s first mass timber, multi-story office building tops out
The Beam on Farmer, Arizona’s first mass timber, multi-story office building, topped out on Feb. 10, 2022.
Codes and Standards | Feb 21, 2022
More bad news on sea level rise for U.S. coastal areas
A new government report predicts sea levels in the U.S. of 10 to 12 inches higher by 2050, with some major cities on the East and Gulf coasts experiencing damaging floods even on sunny days.
Wood | Feb 18, 2022
$2 million mass timber design competition: Building to Net-Zero Carbon (entries due March 30!)
To promote construction of tall mass timber buildings in the U.S., the Softwood Lumber Board (SLB) and USDA Forest Service (USDA) have joined forces on a competition to showcase mass timber’s application, commercial viability, and role as a natural climate solution.
University Buildings | Feb 18, 2022
On-campus performing arts centers and museums can be talent magnets for universities
Cultural facilities are changing the way prospective students and parents view higher education campuses.
University Buildings | Feb 17, 2022
A vacated school in St. Louis is turned into a center where suppliers exchange ideas
In 1871, The Carondelet School, designed by Frederick William Raeder, opened to educate more than 400 children of laborers and manufacturers in St. Louis. The building is getting a second lease on life, as it has undergone a $2 million renovation by goBRANDgo!, a marketing firm for the manufacturing and industrial sectors.
Sponsored | BD+C University Course | Feb 17, 2022
Metal roofing trends
New ideas in design and constructability are radically changing how metal systems are used as roofing for commercial and institutional buildings. Behind the investment in these new kinds of expressions and construction approaches is a growing interest in improved performance and reduced environmental impact. Metal roofing systems can cut cooling and heating loads significantly, according to the EPA.
Data Centers | Feb 15, 2022
Data center boom: How two AEC firms plan to meet unprecedented demand for data center facilities
Ramboll's Jim Fox and EYP Mission Critical Facilities' Rick Einhorn discuss the recent joining of their companies at a time of unprecedented data center demand. BD+C's John Caulfield leads the discussion with Fox, Ramboll's Managing Director for the Americas, and Einhorn, EYP Mission Critical Facilities' Managing Director.
Architects | Feb 15, 2022
Binkley Garcia Architecture and Goodwyn Mills Cawood join forces in Nashville
Goodwyn Mills Cawood (GMC) is pleased to announce the acquisition of architecture and interior design firm Binkley Garcia Architecture in Nashville.
Resiliency | Feb 15, 2022
Design strategies for resilient buildings
LEO A DALY's National Director of Engineering Kim Cowman takes a building-level look at resilient design.
