Even with the myriad of obstacles preventing a full scale recovery for the overall U.S. economy, the design and construction industry appears to have reasons to be at least modestly optimistic in the coming months and into next year.
A sharp spike in demand for industrial facilities so far this year, along with sustained demand for hotels and retail projects factors into what projects to be a 4.4% rise in spending this year for nonresidential construction projects – up from a projection of a 2.1% increase in the January Consensus Forecast.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, also projects a 6.2% increase of spending in 2013.
“With companies looking to bring back manufacturing jobs from overseas, there has been a sharp rise in demand for industrial facilities, which is leading to an upward revision in projections for future construction spending,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Continued budget shortfalls at the state and local level, along with a depressed municipal bond market are holding the institutional market back from seeing similar upticks in spending.”
|
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2012 |
2013 |
|
Overall nonresidential |
4.4% |
6.20% |
|
Commercial / industrial |
5.7% |
10.20% |
|
Industrial |
12.9% |
8.10% |
|
Hotels |
9.5% |
18.20% |
|
Retail |
6.2% |
9.00% |
|
Office buildings |
4.7% |
8.70% |
|
Institutional |
0.7% |
3.00% |
|
Healthcare facilities |
4.0% |
7.50% |
|
Education |
0.3% |
1.10% |
|
Amusement / recreation |
0.1% |
2.30% |
|
Public safety |
0.0% |
0.10% |
|
Religious |
-5.0% |
3.00% |
Remarking on what risks exist that could undermine these projections, Baker added, “Federal tax and spending changes – the so-called fiscal cliff – that may come into play in early 2013 could upset the economic applecart and prove detrimental to recovery possibilities. We will likely have a better sense after the presidential election what will happen with regards to the Bush-era tax cuts, Social Security payroll tax, extended unemployment, and deficit reduction plans that will have a ripple effect that will extend to the construction industry.” +
Related Stories
| Aug 11, 2010
Construction employment shrinks in 319 of the nation's 336 largest metro areas in July, continuing months-long slide
Construction workers in communities across the country continued to suffer extreme job losses this July according to a new analysis of metropolitan area employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released today by the Associated General Contractors of America. That analysis found construction employment declined in 319 of the nation’s largest communities while only 11 areas saw increases and six saw no change in construction employment between July 2008 and July 2009.
| Aug 11, 2010
Green consultant guarantees LEED certification or your money back
With cities mandating LEED (Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design) certification for public, and even private, buildings in growing numbers, an Atlanta-based sustainability consulting firm is hoping to ease anxieties over meeting those goals with the industry’s first Green Guaranteed.
| Aug 11, 2010
Architecture Billings Index bounces back after substantial dip
Exhibiting a welcome rebound following a 5-point dip the month prior, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) was up almost 6 points in July. As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI reflects the approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending. The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported the July ABI rating was 43.1, up noticeably from 37.7 the previous month.
| Aug 11, 2010
Rafael Vinoly-designed East Wing opens at Cleveland Museum of Art
Rafael Vinoly Architects has designed the new East Wing at the Cleveland Museum of Art (CMA), Ohio, which opened to the public on June 27, 2009. Its completion marks the opening of the first of three planned wings.
| Aug 11, 2010
National Association of Governors adopts AIA policy of reaching carbon neutrality in buildings by 2030
As part of their comprehensive national Energy Conservation and Improved Energy Efficiency policy, the National Association of Governors (NGA) has adopted the promotion of carbon neutral new and renovated buildings by 2030 as outlined by the American Institute of Architects (AIA).
| Aug 11, 2010
Installation work begins on Minnesota's largest green roof
Installation of the 2.5 acre green roof vegetation on the City-owned Target Center begins today. Over the course of two days a 165 ton crane will hoist five truckloads of plant material, which includes 900 rolls of pre-grown vegetated mats of sedum and native plants for installation on top of the arena's main roof.
| Aug 11, 2010
AASHE releases annual review of sustainability in higher education
The Association for the Advancement of Sustainability in Higher Education (AASHE) has announced the release of AASHE Digest 2008, which documents the continued rapid growth of campus sustainability in the U.S. and Canada. The 356-page report, available as a free download on the AASHE website, includes over 1,350 stories that appeared in the weekly AASHE Bulletin last year.
| Aug 11, 2010
AECOM, Arup, Gensler most active in commercial building design, according to BD+C's Giants 300 report
A ranking of the Top 100 Commercial Design Firms based on Building Design+Construction's 2009 Giants 300 survey. For more Giants 300 rankings, visit http://www.BDCnetwork.com/Giants
| Aug 11, 2010
AIA approves Sika Sarnafil’s continuing education courses offering sustainable design credits
Two continuing education courses offered by Sika Sarnafil have been approved by the American Institute of Architects (AIA) and are now certified to fulfill the AIA’s new Sustainable Design continuing education requirements.
