Even with the myriad of obstacles preventing a full scale recovery for the overall U.S. economy, the design and construction industry appears to have reasons to be at least modestly optimistic in the coming months and into next year.
A sharp spike in demand for industrial facilities so far this year, along with sustained demand for hotels and retail projects factors into what projects to be a 4.4% rise in spending this year for nonresidential construction projects – up from a projection of a 2.1% increase in the January Consensus Forecast.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, also projects a 6.2% increase of spending in 2013.
“With companies looking to bring back manufacturing jobs from overseas, there has been a sharp rise in demand for industrial facilities, which is leading to an upward revision in projections for future construction spending,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Continued budget shortfalls at the state and local level, along with a depressed municipal bond market are holding the institutional market back from seeing similar upticks in spending.”
|
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2012 |
2013 |
|
Overall nonresidential |
4.4% |
6.20% |
|
Commercial / industrial |
5.7% |
10.20% |
|
Industrial |
12.9% |
8.10% |
|
Hotels |
9.5% |
18.20% |
|
Retail |
6.2% |
9.00% |
|
Office buildings |
4.7% |
8.70% |
|
Institutional |
0.7% |
3.00% |
|
Healthcare facilities |
4.0% |
7.50% |
|
Education |
0.3% |
1.10% |
|
Amusement / recreation |
0.1% |
2.30% |
|
Public safety |
0.0% |
0.10% |
|
Religious |
-5.0% |
3.00% |
Remarking on what risks exist that could undermine these projections, Baker added, “Federal tax and spending changes – the so-called fiscal cliff – that may come into play in early 2013 could upset the economic applecart and prove detrimental to recovery possibilities. We will likely have a better sense after the presidential election what will happen with regards to the Bush-era tax cuts, Social Security payroll tax, extended unemployment, and deficit reduction plans that will have a ripple effect that will extend to the construction industry.” +
Related Stories
| Oct 2, 2012
Mirvish and Gehry unveil conceptual design to transform Toronto’s entertainment district
Reimagining of King Street Entertainment District supports Toronto’s cultural corridor.
| Oct 2, 2012
Dow Business Services Center building named 2012 “America’s Best Buildings of the Year” winner
Building constructed with air sealing and insulation products from Dow Building Solutions.
| Oct 2, 2012
Bernards working on project at L.A. White Memorial Medical Center
The new facility is a $15-million, 41,000-sf concrete structure which includes three stories of medical office space atop a three-level parking garage.
| Oct 1, 2012
Tyco completes separation process, now largest pure-play fire protection and security business
Tyco Integrated Security focused on delivering security solutions to commercial businesses.
| Sep 28, 2012
Seattle is home to first LEED-certified modular radiation center
By using modular construction and strategic site design, RAD Medical Systems built the first radiation center to receive LEED certification.
| Sep 26, 2012
EDITORIAL OPPORTUNITY – BD+C Greenbuild 2012 Issue
Your firm is invited to contribute to this special issue, which will be distributed at Greenbuild San Francisco, Nov. 14-16, 2012.
| Sep 24, 2012
Reed Construction completes Lafarge headquarters in Chicago
Reed Construction was contracted to complete the full third floor build-out which included the construction of new open area work space, private offices, four conference rooms with videoconferencing capabilities and an executive conference boardroom.
| Sep 24, 2012
Chicago Lakeside shortlisted for the Sustainia Award
The “Lakeside Idea” is about bridging a brownfield industrial past to a green lifestyle future, from steel mill to innovation mill.
| Sep 24, 2012
$3.8-million athletic field and track opens in Glen Head, N.Y.
The complex also includes a new, one-story, multi-purpose building that serves as the main entry port to the athletic facilities.
| Sep 21, 2012
AAMA and WDMA release updated review and forecast that predicts industry trends
Significant volume is expected to return to the entry and interior door market as new construction demand is expected to grow at double-digit rates, outpacing remodeling and replacement activity as the housing market recovers.
