Even with the myriad of obstacles preventing a full scale recovery for the overall U.S. economy, the design and construction industry appears to have reasons to be at least modestly optimistic in the coming months and into next year.
A sharp spike in demand for industrial facilities so far this year, along with sustained demand for hotels and retail projects factors into what projects to be a 4.4% rise in spending this year for nonresidential construction projects – up from a projection of a 2.1% increase in the January Consensus Forecast.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, also projects a 6.2% increase of spending in 2013.
“With companies looking to bring back manufacturing jobs from overseas, there has been a sharp rise in demand for industrial facilities, which is leading to an upward revision in projections for future construction spending,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Continued budget shortfalls at the state and local level, along with a depressed municipal bond market are holding the institutional market back from seeing similar upticks in spending.”
|
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2012 |
2013 |
|
Overall nonresidential |
4.4% |
6.20% |
|
Commercial / industrial |
5.7% |
10.20% |
|
Industrial |
12.9% |
8.10% |
|
Hotels |
9.5% |
18.20% |
|
Retail |
6.2% |
9.00% |
|
Office buildings |
4.7% |
8.70% |
|
Institutional |
0.7% |
3.00% |
|
Healthcare facilities |
4.0% |
7.50% |
|
Education |
0.3% |
1.10% |
|
Amusement / recreation |
0.1% |
2.30% |
|
Public safety |
0.0% |
0.10% |
|
Religious |
-5.0% |
3.00% |
Remarking on what risks exist that could undermine these projections, Baker added, “Federal tax and spending changes – the so-called fiscal cliff – that may come into play in early 2013 could upset the economic applecart and prove detrimental to recovery possibilities. We will likely have a better sense after the presidential election what will happen with regards to the Bush-era tax cuts, Social Security payroll tax, extended unemployment, and deficit reduction plans that will have a ripple effect that will extend to the construction industry.” +
Related Stories
| Feb 21, 2013
BD+C's 2011 White Paper: Zero and Net-Zero Energy Buildings + Homes
We submit our eighth White Paper on Sustainability in the hope that it will inspire architects, engineers, contractors, building owners, developers, building product manufacturers, environmentalists, policymakers, government officials, corporate executives, officeholders, and the public to foster the development of net-zero energy buildings and homes.
| Feb 21, 2013
BD+C's 2008 White Paper: Green Buildings + Climate Change
In this White Paper, we provide concrete ways in which AEC professionals can have a positive role in addressing climate change.
| Feb 21, 2013
Holl videos discuss design features of Chengdu ' Porosity Block' project
Architect Steven Holl has released two short films describing the development of Sliced Porosity Block in Chengdu, China.
| Feb 21, 2013
Construction team chosen for world's tallest building in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
Construction team chosen for world's tallest building in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.
| Feb 21, 2013
Stephen C. Wright joins Leo A Daly as Managing Principal in D.C.
International architecture, planning, engineering, interior design and program management firm LEO A DALY welcomes Stephen C. Wright, AIA, as the new managing principal of the Washington, D.C., office. Wright will oversee the D.C. team in executing federal, local government, private and non-profit projects and pursuing new business opportunities in markets including aviation, corporate and commercial, higher education, hospitality and institutional facilities.
| Feb 20, 2013
Architecture Billings Index sees strongest growth since 2007
The American Institute of Architects reported the January ABI score was 54.2, up sharply from 51.2 in December. This score reflects a strong increase in demand for design services.
| Feb 19, 2013
'Pop-up' proposal would create movable cultural venue for NYC
The Culture Shed, a proposed 170,000-sf project for New York City's Hudson Yards development, could be the ultimate in "pop-up" facilities.
| Feb 18, 2013
Top 10 kitchen and bath design trends for 2013
Gray color schemes and transitional styles are among the top trends identified by more than 300 kitchen and bath design experts surveyed by the National Kitchen & Bath Association (NKBA).
