Even with the myriad of obstacles preventing a full scale recovery for the overall U.S. economy, the design and construction industry appears to have reasons to be at least modestly optimistic in the coming months and into next year.
A sharp spike in demand for industrial facilities so far this year, along with sustained demand for hotels and retail projects factors into what projects to be a 4.4% rise in spending this year for nonresidential construction projects – up from a projection of a 2.1% increase in the January Consensus Forecast.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, also projects a 6.2% increase of spending in 2013.
“With companies looking to bring back manufacturing jobs from overseas, there has been a sharp rise in demand for industrial facilities, which is leading to an upward revision in projections for future construction spending,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Continued budget shortfalls at the state and local level, along with a depressed municipal bond market are holding the institutional market back from seeing similar upticks in spending.”
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2012 |
2013 |
Overall nonresidential |
4.4% |
6.20% |
Commercial / industrial |
5.7% |
10.20% |
Industrial |
12.9% |
8.10% |
Hotels |
9.5% |
18.20% |
Retail |
6.2% |
9.00% |
Office buildings |
4.7% |
8.70% |
Institutional |
0.7% |
3.00% |
Healthcare facilities |
4.0% |
7.50% |
Education |
0.3% |
1.10% |
Amusement / recreation |
0.1% |
2.30% |
Public safety |
0.0% |
0.10% |
Religious |
-5.0% |
3.00% |
Remarking on what risks exist that could undermine these projections, Baker added, “Federal tax and spending changes – the so-called fiscal cliff – that may come into play in early 2013 could upset the economic applecart and prove detrimental to recovery possibilities. We will likely have a better sense after the presidential election what will happen with regards to the Bush-era tax cuts, Social Security payroll tax, extended unemployment, and deficit reduction plans that will have a ripple effect that will extend to the construction industry.” +
Related Stories
| Apr 10, 2013
6 funding sources for charter school construction
Competition for grants, loans, and bond financing among charter schools is heating up, so make your clients aware of these potential sources.
| Apr 10, 2013
23 things you need to know about charter schools
Charter schools are growing like Topsy. But don’t jump on board unless you know what you’re getting into.
| Apr 9, 2013
FMI predicts 8% rise in construction put in place for 2013
FMI, the largest provider of management consulting and investment banking services to the engineering and construction industry released today its Q1-2013 Construction Outlook. The forecast for total construction-put-in-place for 2013 continues to show an increase of 8% over 2012 levels.
| Apr 8, 2013
Most daylight harvesting schemes fall short of performance goals, says study
Analysis of daylighting control systems in 20 office and public spaces shows that while the automatic daylighting harvesting schemes are helping to reduce lighting energy, most are not achieving optimal performance, according to a new study by the Energy Center of Wisconsin.